| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Mulu, Andargachew, et al.
(författare)
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The challenges of COVID-19 testing in Africa : The Ethiopian experience
- 2021
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Ingår i: Pan African Medical Journal. - : Pan African Medical Journal. - 1937-8688. ; 38, s. 1-4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is spreading rapidly and creating a huge economic, social and public health challenge worldwide. Although currently an effective vaccine is ready, its distribution is limited, and hence the only currently available lever to reduce transmission is to identify and isolate individuals who are contagious. Thus, testing for SARS CoV-2 has a paramount importance. However, testing in many African countries including Ethiopia has multidimensional growing challenges. Here, we tried to identify, categorize and summarize the challenges of COVID19 testing in Africa from Ethiopian experience.
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| 4. |
- Worku, Seble, et al.
(författare)
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Bacterial profile of surgical site infection and antimicrobial resistance patterns in Ethiopia : a multicentre prospective cross-sectional study
- 2023
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Ingår i: Annals of Clinical Microbiology and Antimicrobials. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1476-0711. ; 22:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Globally, surgical site infections (SSI) are the most commonly reported healthcare-associated infections.Methods A multicentre study was conducted among patients who underwent surgical procedures at four hospitals located in Northern (Debre Tabor), Southern (Hawassa), Southwest (Jimma), and Central (Tikur Anbessa) parts of Ethiopia. A total of 752 patients clinically studied for surgical site infection were enrolled. The number of patients from Debre Tabor, Hawassa, Jimma, and Tikur Anbessa, hospitals was 172, 184, 193, and 203, respectively. At each study site, SSI discharge culture was performed from all patients, and positive cultures were characterized by colony characteristics, Gram stain, and conventional biochemical tests. Each bacterial species was confirmed using Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption/Ionization Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (MALDI TOF). An antimicrobial susceptibility test (AST) was done on Mueller-Hinton agar using the disk diffusion method. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess associations of dependent and independent variables. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Data were analysed using STATA 16 software.Results Among 752 wound discharge cultures performed, 65.5% yielded growth. Among these, 57.9% and 42.1% were Gram-negative and Gram-positive isolates, respectively. In this study, a total of 494 bacteria were isolated; Staphylococcus aureus (31%), Escherichia coli (20.7%), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (9.8%) were the most common. Rare isolates (0.8% each) included Raoultella ornithinolytica, Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, Alcalignes faecalis, Pantoea ecurina, Bacillus flexus, and Paenibacillus tylopili. Enterobacteriaceae showed high levels of resistance to most of the tested antibiotics but lower levels of ertapenem (32.9%), amikacin (24.3%), imipenem (20.3%), and meropenem (17.6%) resistance. Multidrug-resistant (MDR) frequency of Enterobacteriaceae at Debre Tabor, Hawassa, Jimma, and Tikur Anbessa hospitals was 84.5%, 96.5%, 97.3%, and 94%, respectively. Ages >= 61 years (AOR = 2.83, 95% CI: 1.02-7.99; P 0.046), prolonged duration of hospital stay (AOR = 4.15, 95% CI: 2.87-6.01; P 0.000), history of previous antibiotics use (AOR = 2.83, 95% CI: 1.06-2.80; P 0.028), history of smoking (AOR = 2.35, 95% CI: 1.44-3.83; P 0.001), emergency surgery (AOR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.92-3.66; P 0.000), and duration of operation (AOR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.181-0.392; P 0.000) were significant risk factors.Conclusion The most prevalent isolates from Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria across all hospitals were S. aureus and E. coli, respectively. Many newly emerging Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria were identified. Variation between hospitals was found for both SSI etiology type and MDR frequencies. Hence, to prevent the emergence and spread of MDR bacteria, standard bacteriological tests and their AST are indispensable for effective antimicrobial stewardship.
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| 5. |
- Worku, Seble, et al.
(författare)
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Molecular characterization of carbapenemase and extended spectrum beta-lactamase producing Acinetobacter baumannii isolates causing surgical site infections in Ethiopia
- 2024
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Ingår i: BMC Infectious Diseases. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1471-2334. ; 24:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundAcinetobacter baumannii is an opportunistic pathogen that can cause a variety of nosocomial infections in humans. This study aimed to molecularly characterize extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) producing and carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter species isolated from surgical site infections (SSI).MethodsA multicentre cross-sectional study was performed among SSI patients at four hospitals located in Northern, Southern, Southwest, and Central parts of Ethiopia. The isolates were identified by microbiological methods and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Antibiotic susceptibility was determined using disk diffusion. The presence of phenotypic ESBL and carbapenemase production was detected by employing standard microbiological tests, including combined disk diffusion (CDT). ESBL and carbapenem resistance determinants genes were studied by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing.ResultsA total of 8.7% Acinetobacter species were identified from 493 culture-positive isolates out of 752 SSI wounds. The species identified by MALDI-TOF MS were 88.4% A. baumannii, 4.7% Acinetobacter pittii, 4.7% Acinetobacter soli, and 2.3% Acinetobacter lactucae. Of all isolates 93% were positive for ESBL enzymes according to the CDT. Using whole genome sequencing 62.8% of the A. baumannii harbored one or more beta-lactamase genes, and 46.5% harbored one or more carbapenemase producing genes. The distribution of beta-lactamases among Acinetobacter species by hospitals was 53.8%, 64.3%, 75%, and 75% at JUSH, TASH, DTCSH, and HUCSH respectively. Among ESBL genes, blaCTX−M alleles were detected in 21.4% of isolates; of these 83.3% were blaCTX−M−15. The predominant carbapenemase gene of blaOXA type was detected in 24 carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii followed by blaNDM alleles carried in 12 A. baumannii with blaNDM−1 as the most common.ConclusionsThe frequency of Acinetobacter species that produce metallobetalactamases (MBLs) and ESBLs that were found in this study is extremely scary and calls for strict infection prevention and control procedures in health facilities helps to set effective antibiotics stewardship.
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| 6. |
- Worku, Seble, et al.
(författare)
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Molecular Epidemiology of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus among Patients Diagnosed with Surgical Site Infection at Four Hospitals in Ethiopia
- 2023
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Ingår i: Antibiotics. - : MDPI. - 2079-6382. ; 12:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a common cause of severe surgical site infections (SSI). The molecular epidemiology of MRSA is poorly documented in Ethiopia. This study is designed to determine the prevalence of MRSA and associated factors among patients diagnosed with SSI. A multicenter study was conducted at four hospitals in Ethiopia. A wound culture was performed among 752 SSI patients. This study isolated S. aureus and identified MRSA using standard bacteriology, Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption/Ionization Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS), and cefoxitin disk diffusion test. The genes mecA, femA, vanA, and vanB were detected through PCR tests. S. aureus was identified in 21.6% of participants, with 24.5% of these being methicillin-resistant Staphylococci and 0.6% showing vancomycin resistance. Using MALDI-TOF MS for the 40 methicillin-resistant Staphylococci, we confirmed that 31 (77.5%) were S. aureus, 6 (15%) were Mammaliicoccus sciuri, and the other 3 (2.5%) were Staphylococcus warneri, Staphylococcus epidermidis, and Staphylococcus haemolyticus. The gene mecA was detected from 27.5% (11/40) of Staphylococci through PCR. Only 36.4% (4/11) were detected in S. aureus, and no vanA or vanB genes were identified. Out of 11 mecA-gene-positive Staphylococci, 8 (72.7%) were detected in Debre Tabor Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. Methicillin-resistant staphylococcal infections were associated with the following risk factors: age ≥ 61 years, prolonged duration of hospital stay, and history of previous antibiotic use, p-values < 0.05. Hospitals should strengthen infection prevention and control strategies and start antimicrobial stewardship programs.
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