| 1. |
- Bliss, Andrew, et al.
(författare)
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A new inventory of mountain glaciers and ice caps for the Antarctic periphery
- 2013
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Ingår i: Annals of Glaciology. - 0260-3055 .- 1727-5644. ; 54:63, s. 191-199
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although the glaciers in the Antarctic periphery make up a large fraction of all mountain glaciers and ice caps on Earth, a detailed glacier inventory of the region is lacking. We compile such an inventory, recording areas, area-altitude distributions, terminus characteristics and volume estimates. Glaciers on the mainland are excluded. The inventory is derived from the Antarctic Digital Database and some manual digitization. We additionally rely on satellite imagery, digital elevation models and a flowshed algorithm to classify ice bodies. We find 1133 ice caps and 1619 mountain glaciers covering a total of 132 867 +/- 6643 km(2). Estimated total volume corresponds to 0.121 +/- 0.010 m sea-level equivalent. Of the total glacier area, 99% drains either into ice shelves (63%) or into the ocean (36%). The inventory will provide a database for glacier mass-balance assessments, modelling and projections, and help to reduce the uncertainties in previous studies.
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| 2. |
- Bliss, Andrew, et al.
(författare)
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Global response of glacier runoff to twenty-first century climate change
- 2014
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Ingår i: J GEOPHYS RES-EARTH. - 2169-9003. ; 119:4, s. 717-730
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The hydrology of many important river systems in the world is influenced by the presence of glaciers in their upper reaches. We assess the global-scale response of glacier runoff to climate change, where glacier runoff is defined as all melt and rain water that runs off the glacierized area without refreezing. With an elevation-dependent glacier mass balance model, we project monthly glacier runoff for all mountain glaciers and ice caps outside Antarctica until 2100 using temperature and precipitation scenarios from 14 global climate models. We aggregate results for 18 glacierized regions. Despite continuous glacier net mass loss in all regions, trends in annual glacier runoff differ significantly among regions depending on the balance between increased glacier melt and reduction in glacier storage as glaciers shrink. While most regions show significant negative runoff trends, some regions exhibit steady increases in runoff (Canadian and Russian Arctic), or increases followed by decreases (Svalbard and Iceland). Annual glacier runoff is dominated by melt in most regions, but rain is a major contributor in the monsoon-affected regions of Asia and maritime regions such as New Zealand and Iceland. Annual net glacier mass loss dominates total glacier melt especially in some high-latitude regions, while seasonal melt is dominant in wetter climate regimes. Our results highlight the variety of glacier runoff responses to climate change and the need to include glacier net mass loss in assessments of future hydrological change.
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| 3. |
- Hock, Regine, 1960-, et al.
(författare)
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GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Glaciology. - : Cambridge University Press. - 0022-1430 .- 1727-5652. ; 65:251, s. 453-467
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios and aggregated into 19 glacier regions are considered. Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 +/- 7% (RCP2.6) to 36 +/- 11% (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 +/- 25 and 200 +/- 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively. Regional relative mass changes by 2100 correlate linearly with relative area changes. For RCP8.5 three models project global rates of mass loss (multi-GCM means) of >3 mm SLE per year towards the end of the century. Projections vary considerably between regions, and also among the glacier models. Global glacier mass changes per degree global air temperature rise tend to increase with more pronounced warming indicating that mass-balance sensitivities to temperature change are not constant. Differences in glacier mass projections among the models are attributed to differences in model physics, calibration and downscaling procedures, initial ice volumes and varying ensembles of forcing GCMs.
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| 4. |
- Pfeffer, W. Tad, et al.
(författare)
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The Randolph Glacier Inventory : a globally complete inventory of glaciers
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Glaciology. - 0022-1430 .- 1727-5652. ; 60:221, s. 537-552
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) is a globally complete collection of digital outlines of glaciers, excluding the ice sheets, developed to meet the needs of the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for estimates of past and future mass balance. The RGI was created with limited resources in a short period. Priority was given to completeness of coverage, but a limited, uniform set of attributes is attached to each of the similar to 198 000 glaciers in its latest version, 3.2. Satellite imagery from 1999-2010 provided most of the outlines. Their total extent is estimated as 726 800 +/- 34 000 km(2). The uncertainty, about +/- 5%, is derived from careful single-glacier and basin-scale uncertainty estimates and comparisons with inventories that were not sources for the RGI. The main contributors to uncertainty are probably misinterpretation of seasonal snow cover and debris cover. These errors appear not to be normally distributed, and quantifying them reliably is an unsolved problem. Combined with digital elevation models, the RGI glacier outlines yield hypsometries that can be combined with atmospheric data or model outputs for analysis of the impacts of climatic change on glaciers. The RGI has already proved its value in the generation of significantly improved aggregate estimates of glacier mass changes and total volume, and thus actual and potential contributions to sea-level rise.
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| 5. |
- Radic, V, et al.
(författare)
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Regional and global projections of 21st century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models.
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 42:1-2, s. 37-58
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A large component of present-day sea-level rise is due to the melt of glaciers other than the ice sheets. Recent projections of their contribution to global sea-level rise for the twenty-first century range between 70 and 180 mm, but bear significant uncertainty due to poor glacier inventory and lack of hypsometric data. Here, we aim to update the projections and improve quantification of their uncertainties by using a recently released global inventory containing outlines of almost every glacier in the world. We model volume change for each glacier in response to transient spatially-differentiated temperature and precipitation projections from 14 global climate models with two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) prepared for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The multi-model mean suggests sea-level rise of 155 ± 41 mm (RCP4.5) and 216 ± 44 mm (RCP8.5) over the period 2006–2100, reducing the current global glacier volume by 29 or 41 %. The largest contributors to projected global volume loss are the glaciers in the Canadian and Russian Arctic, Alaska, and glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Although small contributors to global volume loss, glaciers in Central Europe, low-latitude South America, Caucasus, North Asia, and Western Canada and US are projected to lose more than 80 % of their volume by 2100. However, large uncertainties in the projections remain due to the choice of global climate model and emission scenario. With a series of sensitivity tests we quantify additional uncertainties due to the calibration of our model with sparsely observed glacier mass changes. This gives an upper bound for the uncertainty range of ±84 mm sea-level rise by 2100 for each projection.
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