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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
- Nguyen, Ngoc Quang, et al.
(författare)
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Time trends in blood pressure, body mass index and smoking in the Vietnamese population : a meta-analysis from multiple cross-sectional surveys
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 7:8, s. e42825-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Data for trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are needed to set priorities and evaluate intervention programmes in the community. We estimated time trends in blood pressure ( BP), anthropometric variables and smoking in the Vietnamese population and highlighted the differences between men and women or between rural and urban areas.Methods: A dataset of 23,563 adults aged 25-74 from 5 cross-sectional surveys undertaken within Vietnam from 2001 to 2009 by the Vietnam National Heart Institute was used to estimate mean BP, weight, waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), the prevalence of hypertension, adiposity or smoking, which were standardised to the national age structure of 2009. Multilevel mixed linear models were used to estimate annual changes in the variables of interest, adjusted by age, sex, residential area, with random variations for age and surveyed provinces.Findings: Among the adult population, the age-standardised mean systolic and diastolic BP increased by 0.8 and 0.3 mmHg in women, 1.1 and 0.4 mmHg in men, while the mean BMI increased by 0.1 kgm(-2) in women, 0.2 kgm(-2) in men per year. Consequently, the prevalence of hypertension and adiposity increased by 0.9 and 0.3% in women, 1.1 and 0.9% in men with similar time trends in both rural and urban areas, while smoking prevalence only increased in women by 0.3% per year. A U-shaped association was found between age-adjusted BP and BMI in both sexes and in both areas.Conclusions: From 2001 to 2009, mean BP, weight and WC significantly increased in the Vietnamese population, leading to an increased prevalence of hypertension and adiposity, suggesting the need for the development of multi-sectoral cost-effective population-based interventions to improve CVD management and prevention. The U-shaped relationship between BP and BMI highlighted the hypertension burden in the underweight population, which is usually neglected in CVD interventions.
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| 3. |
- Tesfaye, Fikru, et al.
(författare)
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Association of Smoking and Khat (Catha edulis Forsk) Use With High Blood Pressure Among Adults in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2006
- 2008
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Ingår i: Preventing Chronic Disease. - : National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion. - 1545-1151. ; 5:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction We assessed the prevalence of substance use and its association with high blood pressure among adults in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.Methods We employed a cross-sectional descriptive study design. The World Health Organization instrument for stepwise surveillance of risk factors for chronic diseases was applied on a probabilistic sample of 4001 men and women aged 25 to 64 years in Addis Ababa. We determined the prevalence of cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking, and khat (Catha edulis Forsk) chewing. We measured blood pressure by using a digital device and determined mean levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure.Results Smoking cigarettes, drinking alcohol, and chewing khat were widely prevalent among men. Among men, the prevalence of current daily smoking was 11.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.5%–12.5%). Binge drinking of alcohol was reported by 10.4% (95% CI, 9.0%–11.9%) of men. Similarly, 15.9% (95% CI, 14.1%–17.6%) of men regularly chewed khat. Consequently, 26.6% of men and 2.4% of women reported practicing one or more of the behaviors. Current daily smoking and regular khat chewing were significantly associated with elevated mean diastolic blood pressure (β = 2.1, P = .03 and β = 1.9, P = .02, respectively).Conclusion Cigarette smoking and khat chewing among men in Addis Ababa were associated with high blood pressure, an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Health promotion interventions should aim to prevent proliferation of such behaviors among young people and adoption by women. Surveillance for risk factors for cardiovascular disease should be implemented nationwide to provide information for policy decisions and to guide prevention and control programs.
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