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Advances in Social Simulation : Looking in the Mirror
- 2020
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Editorial proceedings (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This book presents the state-of-the-art in social simulation as presented at the Social Simulation Conference 2018 in Stockholm, Sweden. It covers the developments in applications and methods of social simulation, addressing societal issues such as socio-ecological systems and policy making. Methodological issues discussed include large-scale empirical calibration, model sharing and interdisciplinary research, as well as decision making models, validation and the use of qualitative data in simulation modeling. Research areas covered include archaeology, cognitive science, economics, organization science, and social simulation education. This collection gives readers insight into the increasing use of social simulation in both its theoretical development and in practical applications such as policy making whereby modelling and the behavior of complex systems is key. The book will appeal to students, researchers and professionals in the various fields.
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| 2. |
- Ale Ebrahim Dehkordi, Molood, et al.
(author)
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Long-term dynamics of institutions : Using ABM as a complementary tool to support theory development in historical studies
- 2021
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In: JASSS. - : Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation. - 1460-7425. ; 24:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Historical data are valuable resources for providing insights into social patterns in the past. However, these data often inform us at the macro-level of analysis but not about the role of individuals’ behaviours in the emergence of long-term patterns. Therefore, it is difficult to infer ‘how’ and ‘why’ certain patterns emerged in the past. Historians use various methods to draw hypotheses about the underlying reasons for emerging patterns and trends, but since the patterns are the results of hundreds if not thousands of years of human behaviour, these hypotheses can never be tested in reality. Our proposition is that simulation models and specifically, agent-based models (ABMs) can be used as complementary tools in historical studies to support hypothesis building. The approach that we propose and test in this paper is to design and configure models in such a way as to generate historical patterns, consequently aiming to find individual-level explanations for the emerging pattern. In this work, we use an existing, empirically validated, agent-based model of common pool resource management to test hypotheses formulated based on a historical dataset. We first investigate whether the model can replicate various patterns observed in the dataset, and second, whether it can contribute to a better understanding of the underlying mechanism that led to the observed empirical trends. We showcase how ABM can be used as a complementary tool to support theory development in historical studies. Finally, we provide some guidelines for using ABM as a tool to test historical hypotheses.
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| 3. |
- Aliakbar, Akbaritabar, et al.
(author)
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The impact of a national research assessment on the publications of sociologists in Italy
- 2021
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In: Science and Public Policy. - : Oxford University Press. - 0302-3427 .- 1471-5430. ; 48:5, s. 662-678
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article investigates the impact of the second national research assessment (VQR 2004–10), which was performed in 2011 by the Italian National Agency for the Evaluation of Universities and Research Institutes, on publication strategies by sociologists in Italy. We reconstructed all publications from Italian sociologists in Scopus between 2006 and 2015, that is five years before and after the assessment. We also checked academic tenure and promotions during the assessment. Our results showed the potentially distortive effect of institutional signals on publications given that Italian sociologists published more in journals that were considered influential for assessment, some, however, being of doubtful quality. Our findings would suggest that the use of informed peer review and ad hoc journal ranking could stimulate adaptive responses based on strategic journal targeting to ensure publication.
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| 4. |
- Bravo, Giangiacomo, 1969-, et al.
(author)
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Actions speak louder than words : Attitudes, behaviour, and partisan identity in a polarised environmental domain
- 2022
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In: Energy Research & Social Science. - : Elsevier. - 2214-6296 .- 2214-6326. ; 90
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The relationship between environmental attitudes and behaviour is known to be weak, especially when these variables are measured as self-report items in surveys. In addition many environmental questions are highly polarised, making it even more problematic to use survey data to inform policy making. To better explore the attitude–behaviour gap in the context of environmental policies, along with its interaction with partisan identity, we ran an online experiment with 805 U.S. residents. Four key variables – environmental attitudes, self-reported environmental behaviour, observed environmental behaviour (in the form of carbon-offset credit purchase), and partisan identity – were measured, and their interactions in promoting pro-environmental behaviour were analysed. We found that (1) self-reported and real behaviour are almost uncorrelated and (2) partisan identity mainly predicted self-reported not actual environmental behaviour. These results suggest that policy-making needs to rely more on behavioural insight to test policies’ actual effects and to promote real improvement of the local and global environment.
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| 5. |
- Bravo, Giangiacomo, 1969-, et al.
(author)
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Cooperation and conflict in segregated populations
- 2020
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In: Social science computer review. - Thousand Oaks, CA : Sage Publications. - 0894-4393 .- 1552-8286. ; 38:4, s. 405-421
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Humans behavior often varies depending on the opponent’s group membership, with both positive consequences (e.g., cooperation or mutual help) and negative ones (e.g., stereotyping, oppression, or even genocide). An influential model developed by Hammond and Axelrod (HA) highlighted the emergence of macrolevel “ethnocentric cooperation” from the aggregation of microlevel interactions based on arbitrary tags signaling group membership. We extended this model to include a wider set of agents’ behaviors including the possibility of harming others. This allowed to check whether and under which conditions xenophobia can emerge beside or in alternative to ethnocentric cooperation. The model was compared to Swedish data documenting social unrest and proxies of cooperative behaviors at the municipal level. The validation results supported the model predictions on conflict but not the ones on cooperation, casting doubts on HA’s original argument.
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| 6. |
- De Moor, Tine, et al.
(author)
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Taking sanctioning seriously : The impact of sanctions on the resilience of historical commons in Europe
- 2021
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In: Journal of Rural Studies. - : Elsevier. - 0743-0167 .- 1873-1392. ; 87, s. 181-188
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In their studies of collective exploitation of common-pool resources, Ostrom and other scholars have stressed the importance of sanctioning as an essential method for preventing overuse and, eventually, the collapse of commons. However, most of the available evidence is based on data covering a relatively small period in history, and thus does not inform us about the evolution of rules, including sanctions, over time. In this article, we demonstrate, based on historical sources covering several centuries, that sanctioning was not always the preferred way of preventing or dealing with free-riding in institutions for collective action, but that the legal context is decisive to understand why commoners in some countries were using more sanctions than those in others to regulate commoners' behavior. Commoners that could self-govern their resources used fewer sanctions, and when they did, it was mainly to avoid overuse of their most vulnerable resources. Moreover, graduated sanctioning seems to be less important than suggested in Ostrom's famous Design Principles, and was reserved primarily for immediate threats to the commons' resources. We also show the importance of other types of rules, such as differentiated rules, which have hardly been taken into account in literature to date.
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| 8. |
- Farjam, Mike, et al.
(author)
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Dangerous liaisons : an online experiment on the role of scientific experts and politicians in ensuring public support for anti-COVID measures
- 2021
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In: Royal Society Open Science. - : The Royal Society publishing. - 2054-5703. ; 8:3, s. 1-20
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The effectiveness of public health measures to prevent COVID-19 contagion has required less vulnerable citizens to pay an individual cost in terms of personal liberty infringement to protect more vulnerable groups. However, the close relationship between scientific experts and politicians in providing information on COVID-19 measures makes it difficult to understand which communication source was more effective in increasing pro-social behaviour. Here, we present an online experiment performed in May 2020, during the first wave of the pandemic on 1131 adult residents in Lombardy, Italy, one of the world's hardest hit regions. Results showed that when scientific experts recommended anti-contagion measures, participants were more sensitive to pro-social motivations, unlike whenever these measures were recommended by politicians and scientific experts together. Our findings suggest the importance of trusted sources in public communication during a pandemic.
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| 9. |
- Farjam, Mike, et al.
(author)
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Do you really believe that? The effect of economic incentives on the acceptance of real-world data in a polarized context
- 2024
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In: Royal Society Open Science. - : Royal Society. - 2054-5703. ; 11:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Attitudes and expectations towards others are major drivers of political polarization. However, there is limited understanding of their relevance when decisions with high stakes are taken. In this study, we compare self-reported attitudes against economically incentivized estimates of data coming from official sources and offer participants financial rewards for accuracy. Our methodology yields three principal findings. (i) Extreme attitudes from a small partisan subgroup primarily account for the observed partisan divide; this subgroup diminishes when incentivized estimates are considered. (ii) There is a weak correlation between economically incentivized and unincentivized measures within individual respondents. (iii) We introduce a novel metric for assessing perceived polarization. This metric allows participants to estimate data points for those with opposing political views, rewarding accurate predictions financially. Interestingly, this measure of perceived polarization correlates with attitudes but not with incentivized data estimates. This is in line with the concept of ‘false polarization’, attributing polarization more to expectations towards others than to genuine differences. These findings challenge the reliability of standard attitude surveys and suggest avenues for mitigating perceived polarization in contentious issues.
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| 10. |
- Farjam, Mike, 1986-, et al.
(author)
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Fixing sample biases in experimental data using agent-based modelling
- 2020
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In: Advances in social simulation. - Cham : Springer Nature. - 9783030341268 - 9783030341275 ; , s. 155-159
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present how agent-based models can be used to correct for biases in a sample. The approach is generally useful for behavioural experiments where participants interact over time. The model we developed copied mechanics of a behavioural experiment conducted earlier, and agents in the model faced the same strategic choices as human participants did. We used the data from the experiment to calibrate agent behaviour such that agents reproduced patterns observed in the experiment. After this learning phase, we resampled agents such that their characteristics (political orientation) were similar to those found in the real world. We found that after the correction for the bias, agents produced patterns closer to those commonly found.
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