| 1. |
- Aguiar-Conraria, Luis, et al.
(författare)
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Business cycle synchronization across US states
- 2017
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Ingår i: The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. - : Walter de Gruyter GmbH. - 2194-6116 .- 1935-1690. ; 17:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We use wavelet analysis to conclude that individual U.S. states' business cycles are very well synchronized. We also find evidence of a strong and significant correlation between business cycle dissimilitudes and the distance between each pair of states, consistent to gravity type mechanisms where distance affects trade. Trade, in turn, increases business cycle synchronization, while a higher degree of industry specialization is associated with a higher dissimilitude of the state cycle with the aggregate economy. Finally, there is evidence that business cycle dissimilitudes have been decreasing with time, consistent with the previous findings coupled with the idea that information and communications technology make distances smaller.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Brinca, Pedro
(författare)
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Distortions in the neoclassical growth model : A cross-country analysis
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. - : Elsevier BV. - 0165-1889 .- 1879-1743. ; 47, s. 1-19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates the properties of distortions that manifest themselves as wedges in the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model across a sample of 22 OECD countries for the 1970-2011 period. The quantitative relevance of each wedge and its robustness in generating fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates is assessed. The efficiency wedge proves to be determinant in enabling models to replicate movements in output and investment, while the labor wedge is important to predict fluctuations in hours worked. Modeling distortions to the savings decision holds little quantitative or qualitative relevance. Also, investment seems to be the hardest aggregate to replicate, as prediction errors concerning output and hours worked are typically one order of magnitude smaller. These conclusions are statistically significant across the countries in the sample and are not limited to output drops. Finally, the geographical distance between countries and their degree of openness to trade are shown to contain information with regard to the wedges, stressing the importance of international mechanisms of transmission between distortions to the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model.
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| 4. |
- Brinca, Pedro, 1979-
(författare)
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Monetary Business Cycle Accounting for Sweden
- 2013
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Ingår i: The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. - : Walter de Gruyter GmbH. - 2194-6116 .- 1935-1690. ; 13:1, s. 1085-1119
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- When creating competing models of economic fluctuations, researchers typically introduce frictions in their models aiming at replicating the observed movements in the data. This paper implements a business cycle accounting procedure for the Swedish economy. Both the 1990's and the 2008 recessions are given special focus. Evidence is provided for properties that structural extensions to the business cycle model need to have in order to replicate the movements in the data. Distortions to the labor market and movements in total factor productivity are the most determinant features to be modeled with respect to real variables as well as deviations from a Taylor rule for interest rate setting, though the latter plays little role for both the 1990's and the 2008 recessions. The distortions share a structural break during the 1990's crisis but not during the recent one.
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| 5. |
- Brinca, Pedro Soares, 1979-
(författare)
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Essays in Quantitative Macroeconomics
- 2013
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In the first essay, Distortions in the Neoclassical Growth Model: A Cross Country Analysis, I show that shocks that express themselves as total factor productivity and labor income taxes are comparably more synchronized than shocks that resemble distortions to the ability of allocating resources across time and states of the world. These two shocks are also the most important to model. Lastly, I document the importance of international channels of transmission for the shocks, given that these are spatially correlated and that international trade variables, such as trade openness correlate particularly well with them. The second essay is called Monetary Business Cycle Accounting for Sweden. Given that the analysis is focused in one country, I can extend the prototype economy to include a nominal interest rate setting rule and government bonds. As in the previous essay, distortions to the labor-leisure condition and total factor productivity are the most relevant margins to be modeled, now joined by deviations from the nominal interest rate setting rule. Also, distortions do not share a structural break during the Great Recession, but they do during the 1990’s. Researchers aiming to model Swedish business cycles must take into account the structural changes the Swedish economy went through in the 1990’s, though not so during the last recession. The third essay, Consumer Confidence and Consumption Spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area, we show that, the consumer confidence index can be in certain circumstances a good predictor of consumption. In particular, out-of-sample evidence shows that the contribution of confidence in explaining consumption expenditures increases when household survey indicators feature large changes, so that confidence indicators can have some increasing predictive power during such episodes. Moreover, there is some evidence of a confidence channel in the international transmission of shocks, as U.S. confidence indices help predicting consumer sentiment in the euro area.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Dees, Stephane, et al.
(författare)
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Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending : Evidence for the United States and Euro Area
- 2013
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Ingår i: International Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 2110-7017. ; 134, s. 1-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For most academics and policy makers, the depth of the 2008–09 financial crisis, its longevity and its impacts on the real economy resulted from an erosion of confidence. This paper proposes to assess empirically the link between consumer sentiment and consumption expenditures for the United States and the euro area. It shows under which circumstances confidence indicators can be a good predictor of household consumption even after controlling for information in economic fundamentals. Overall, the results show that, the consumer confidence index can be in certain circumstances a good predictor of consumption. In particular, out-of-sample evidence shows that the contribution of confidence in explaining consumption expenditures increases when household survey indicators feature large changes, so that confidence indicators can have some increasing predictive power during such episodes. Moreover, there is some evidence of a “confidence channel” in the international transmission of shocks, as U.S. confidence indices help predicting consumer sentiment in the euro area.
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