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- Pantazis, N, et al.
(författare)
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Determining the likely place of HIV acquisition for migrants in Europe combining subject-specific information and biomarkers data
- 2019
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Ingår i: Statistical methods in medical research. - : SAGE Publications. - 1477-0334 .- 0962-2802. ; 28:7, s. 1979-1997
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In most HIV-positive individuals, infection time is only known to lie between the time an individual started being at risk for HIV and diagnosis time. However, a more accurate estimate of infection time is very important in certain cases. For example, one of the objectives of the Advancing Migrant Access to Health Services in Europe (aMASE) study was to determine if HIV-positive migrants, diagnosed in Europe, were infected pre- or post-migration. We propose a method to derive subject-specific estimates of unknown infection times using information from HIV biomarkers’ measurements, demographic, clinical, and behavioral data. We assume that CD4 cell count (CD4) and HIV-RNA viral load trends after HIV infection follow a bivariate linear mixed model. Using post-diagnosis CD4 and viral load measurements and applying the Bayes’ rule, we derived the posterior distribution of the HIV infection time, whereas the prior distribution was informed by AIDS status at diagnosis and behavioral data. Parameters of the CD4–viral load and time-to-AIDS models were estimated using data from a large study of individuals with known HIV infection times (CASCADE). Simulations showed substantial predictive ability (e.g. 84% of the infections were correctly classified as pre- or post-migration). Application to the aMASE study ( n = 2009) showed that 47% of African migrants and 67% to 72% of migrants from other regions were most likely infected post-migration. Applying a Bayesian method based on bivariate modeling of CD4 and viral load, and subject-specific information, we found that the majority of HIV-positive migrants in aMASE were most likely infected after their migration to Europe.
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| 2. |
- Blogg, S. Lesley, et al.
(författare)
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Ultrasound detection of vascular decompression bubbles : the influence of new technology and considerations on bubble load
- 2014
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Ingår i: Diving and Hyperbaric Medicine. - 1833-3516. ; 44:1, s. 35-44
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Diving often causes the formation of 'silent' bubbles upon decompression. If the bubble load is high, then the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) and the number of bubbles that could cross to the arterial circulation via a pulmonary shunt or patent foramen ovale increase. Bubbles can be monitored aurally, with Doppler ultrasound, or visually, with two-dimensional (2D) ultrasound imaging. Doppler grades and imaging grades can be compared with good agreement. Early 2D imaging units did not provide such comprehensive observations as Doppler, but advances in technology have allowed development of improved, portable, relatively inexpensive units. Most now employ harmonic technology; it was suggested that this could allow previously undetectable bubbles to be observed. Methods: This paper provides a review of current methods of bubble measurement and how new technology may be changing our perceptions of the potential relationship of these measurements to decompression illness. Secondly, 69 paired ultrasound images were made using conventional 2D ultrasound imaging and harmonic imaging. Images were graded on the Eftedal-Brubakk (EB) scale and the percentage agreement of the images calculated. The distribution of mismatched grades was analysed. Results: Fifty-four of the 69 paired images had matching grades. There was no significant difference in the distribution of high or low EB grades for the mismatched pairs. Conclusions: Given the good level of agreement between pairs observed, it seems unlikely that harmonic technology is responsible for any perceived increase in observed bubble loads, but it is probable that our increasing use of 2D ultrasound to assess dive profiles is changing our perception of 'normal' venous and arterial bubble loads. Methods to accurately investigate the load and size of bubbles developed will be helpful in the future in determining DCS risk.
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