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- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Romagnoni, A, et al.
(författare)
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Comparative performances of machine learning methods for classifying Crohn Disease patients using genome-wide genotyping data
- 2019
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Ingår i: Scientific reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 9:1, s. 10351-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Crohn Disease (CD) is a complex genetic disorder for which more than 140 genes have been identified using genome wide association studies (GWAS). However, the genetic architecture of the trait remains largely unknown. The recent development of machine learning (ML) approaches incited us to apply them to classify healthy and diseased people according to their genomic information. The Immunochip dataset containing 18,227 CD patients and 34,050 healthy controls enrolled and genotyped by the international Inflammatory Bowel Disease genetic consortium (IIBDGC) has been re-analyzed using a set of ML methods: penalized logistic regression (LR), gradient boosted trees (GBT) and artificial neural networks (NN). The main score used to compare the methods was the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) statistics. The impact of quality control (QC), imputing and coding methods on LR results showed that QC methods and imputation of missing genotypes may artificially increase the scores. At the opposite, neither the patient/control ratio nor marker preselection or coding strategies significantly affected the results. LR methods, including Lasso, Ridge and ElasticNet provided similar results with a maximum AUC of 0.80. GBT methods like XGBoost, LightGBM and CatBoost, together with dense NN with one or more hidden layers, provided similar AUC values, suggesting limited epistatic effects in the genetic architecture of the trait. ML methods detected near all the genetic variants previously identified by GWAS among the best predictors plus additional predictors with lower effects. The robustness and complementarity of the different methods are also studied. Compared to LR, non-linear models such as GBT or NN may provide robust complementary approaches to identify and classify genetic markers.
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| 3. |
- Sampson, Joshua N., et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of Heritability and Shared Heritability Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies for 13 Cancer Types
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 107:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, h(l)(2), on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (rho = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (rho = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (rho = 0.51, SE = 0.18), and bladder and lung (rho = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.
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| 4. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 8. |
- Bertsias, GK, et al.
(författare)
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EULAR recommendations for the management of systemic lupus erythematosus with neuropsychiatric manifestations: report of a task force of the EULAR standing committee for clinical affairs
- 2010
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Ingår i: Annals of the rheumatic diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 69:12, s. 2074-2082
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To develop recommendations for the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus (NPSLE) manifestations.MethodsThe authors compiled questions on prevalence and risk factors, diagnosis and monitoring, therapy and prognosis of NPSLE. A systematic literature search was performed and evidence was categorised based on sample size and study design.ResultsSystemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients are at increased risk of several neuropsychiatric manifestations. Common (cumulative incidence >5%) manifestations include cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and seizures; relatively uncommon (1–5%) are severe cognitive dysfunction, major depression, acute confusional state (ACS), peripheral nervous disorders psychosis. Strong risk factors (at least fivefold increased risk) are previous or concurrent severe NPSLE (for cognitive dysfunction, seizures) and antiphospholipid antibodies (for CVD, seizures, chorea). The diagnostic work-up of suspected NPSLE is comparable to that in patients without SLE who present with the same manifestations, and aims to exclude causes unrelated to SLE. Investigations include cerebrospinal fluid analysis (to exclude central nervous system infection), EEG (to diagnose seizure disorder), neuropsychological tests (to assess cognitive dysfunction), nerve conduction studies (for peripheral neuropathy) and MRI (T1/T2, fluid-attenuating inversion recovery, diffusion-weighted imaging, enhanced T1 sequence). Glucocorticoids and immunosuppressive therapy are indicated when NPSLE is thought to reflect an inflammatory process (optic neuritis, transverse myelitis, peripheral neuropathy, refractory seizures, psychosis, ACS) and in the presence of generalised lupus activity. Antiplatelet/anticoagulation therapy is indicated when manifestations are related to antiphospholipid antibodies, particularly thrombotic CVD.ConclusionsNeuropsychiatric manifestations in SLE patients should be first evaluated and treated as in patients without SLE, and secondarily attributed to SLE and treated accordingly.
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| 9. |
- Bruce, IN, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term organ damage accrual and safety in patients with SLE treated with belimumab plus standard of care
- 2016
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Ingår i: Lupus. - : SAGE Publications. - 1477-0962 .- 0961-2033. ; 25:7, s. 699-709
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To examine long-term organ damage and safety following treatment with belimumab plus standard of care (SoC) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods Pooled data were examined from two ongoing open-label studies that enrolled patients who completed BLISS-52 or BLISS-76. Patients received belimumab every four weeks plus SoC. SLICC Damage Index (SDI) values were assessed every 48 weeks (study years) following belimumab initiation (baseline). The primary endpoint was change in SDI from baseline at study years 5–6. Incidences of adverse events (AEs) were reported for the entire study period. Results The modified intent-to-treat (MITT) population comprised 998 patients. At baseline, 940 (94.2%) were female, mean (SD) age was 38.7 (11.49) years, and disease duration was 6.7 (6.24) years. The mean (SD) SELENA-SLEDAI and SDI scores were 8.2 (4.18) and 0.7 (1.19), respectively; 411 (41.2%) patients had organ damage (SDI = 1: 235 (23.5%); SDI ≥ 2: 176 (17.6%)) prior to belimumab. A total of 427 (42.8%) patients withdrew overall; the most common reasons were patient request (16.8%) and AEs (8.5%). The mean (SD) change in SDI was +0.2 (0.48) at study years 5–6 ( n = 403); 343 (85.1%) patients had no change from baseline in SDI score (SDI +1: 46 (11.4%), SDI +2: 13 (3.2%), SDI +3: 1 (0.2%)). Of patients without organ damage at baseline, 211/241 (87.6%) had no change in SDI and the mean change (SD) in SDI was +0.2 (0.44). Of patients with organ damage at baseline, 132/162 (81.5%) had no change in SDI and the mean (SD) change in SDI was +0.2 (0.53). The probability of not having a worsening in SDI score was 0.88 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.91) and 0.75 (0.67, 0.81) in those without and with baseline damage, respectively (post hoc analysis). Drug-related AEs were reported for 433 (43.4%) patients; infections/infestations (282, 28.3%) and gastrointestinal disorders (139, 13.9%) were the most common. Conclusion Patients with SLE treated with long-term belimumab plus SoC had a low incidence of organ damage accrual and no unexpected AEs. High-risk patients with pre-existing organ damage also had low accrual, suggesting a favorable effect on future damage development.
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