| 1. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 4. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 5. |
- El-Jawahri, Areej, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of pre-transplant depression on outcomes of allogeneic and autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation
- 2017
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Ingår i: Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0008-543X .- 1097-0142. ; 123:10, s. 1828-1838
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: To evaluate the impact of depression before autologous and allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) on clinical outcomes post-transplantation.METHODS: We analyzed data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research to compare outcomes after autologous (n=3786) or allogeneic (n=7433) HCT for adult patients with hematologic malignancies with an existing diagnosis of pre-HCT depression requiring treatment versus those without pre-HCT depression. Using Cox regression models, we compared overall survival (OS) between patients with or without depression. We compared the number of days alive and out of the hospital in the first 100 days post-HCT using Poisson models. We also compared the incidence of grade 2-4 acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) in allogeneic HCT.RESULTS: The study included 1116 (15%) patients with pre-transplant depression and 6317 (85%) without depression who underwent allogeneic HCT between 2008 and 2012. Pre-transplant depression was associated with lower OS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.23; P=0.004) and a higher incidence of grade 2-4 acute GVHD (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.14-1.37; P<0.0001), but similar incidence of chronic GVHD. Pre-transplant depression was associated with fewer days-alive-and-out-of-the hospital (means ratio [MR]=0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99; P=0.004). There were 512 (13.5%) patients with Pre-transplant depression and 3274 (86.5%) without depression who underwent autologous HCT. Pre-transplant depression in autologous HCT was not associated with OS (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.98-1.34; P=0.096) but was associated with fewer days alive and out of the hospital (MR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.99; P=0.002).CONCLUSION: Pre-transplant depression was associated with lower OS and higher risk of acute GVHD among allogeneic HCT recipients and fewer days alive and out of the hospital during the first 100 days after autologous and allogeneic HCT. Patients with pre-transplant depression represent a population that is at risk for post-transplant complications.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Radivoyevitch, Tomas, et al.
(författare)
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Risk of acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome after autotransplants for lymphomas and plasma cell myeloma
- 2018
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Ingår i: Leukemia Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0145-2126 .- 1873-5835. ; 74, s. 130-136
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Exposures to DNA-damaging drugs and ionizing radiations increase risks of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS).Methods: 9028 recipients of hematopoietic cell autotransplants (1995-2010) for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL; n=916), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL; n=3546) and plasma cell myeloma (PCM; n=4566), reported to the CIBMTR, were analyzed for risk of subsequent AML or MDS.Results: 335 MDS/ AML cases were diagnosed posttransplant (3.7%). Variables associated with an increased risk for AML or MDS in multivariate analyses were: (1) conditioning with total body radiation versus chemotherapy alone for HL (HR=4.0; 95% confidence interval [1.4, 11.6]) and NHL (HR=2.5 [1.1, 2.5]); (2) >= 3 versus 1 line of chemotherapy for NHL (HR=1.9 [1.3, 2.8]); and (3) subjects with NHL transplanted in 2005-2010 versus 1995-1999 (HR=2.1 [1.5, 3.1]). Using Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data, we found risks for AML/ MDS in HL, NHL and PCM to be 5-10 times the background rate. In contrast, relative risks were 10-50 for AML and approximately 100 for MDS in the autotransplant cohort.Conclusions: There are substantial risks of AML and MDS after autotransplants for HL, NHL and PCM.
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| 8. |
- Vrooman, Lynda M., et al.
(författare)
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Survival and Late Effects after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Hematologic Malignancy at Less than Three Years of Age
- 2017
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Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 23:8, s. 1327-1334
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Very young children undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) are a unique and vulnerable population. We analyzed outcomes of 717 patients from 117 centers who survived relapse free for year after allogeneic myeloablative HCT for hematologic malignancy at <3 years of age, between 1987 and 2012. The median follow-up was 8.3 years (range, 1.0 to 26.4 years); median age at follow-up was 9 years (range, 2 to 29 years). Ten-year overall and relapse-free survival were 87% (95% confidence interval [CI], 85% to 90%) and 84% (95% CI, 81% to 87%). Ten-year cumulative incidence of relapse was 11% (95% CI, 9% to 13%). Of 84 deaths, relapse was the leading cause (43%). Chronic graft-versus-host-disease 1 year after HCT was associated with increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.3; P=.0018). Thirty percent of patients experienced >= 1 organ toxicity/late effect >1 year after HCT. The most frequent late effects included growth hormone deficiency/growth disturbance (10-year cumulative incidence, 23%; 95% CI, 19% to 28%), cataracts (18%; 95% CI, 15% to 22%), hypothyroidism (13%; 95% CI, 10% to 16%), gonadal dysfunction/infertility requiring hormone replacement (3%; 95% CI, 2% to 5%), and stroke/seizure (3%; 95% CI, 2% to 5%). Subsequent malignancy was reported in 3.6%. In multivariable analysis, total body irradiation (TBI) was predictive of increased risk of cataracts (HR, 17.2; 95% CI, 7.4 to 39.8; P <.001), growth deficiency (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.2 to 5.5; P <.001), and hypothyroidism (HR, 5.3; 95% CI, 3.0 to 9.4; P <.001). In summary, those who survived relapse free year after HCT for hematologic malignancy at <3 years of age had favorable overall survival. Chronic graft-versus host-disease and TBI were associated with adverse outcomes. Future efforts should focus on reducing the risk of relapse and late effects after HCT at early age.
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| 9. |
- Wood, William A., et al.
(författare)
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Country-Level Macroeconomic Indicators Predict Early Post-Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Survival in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia : A CIBMTR Analysis
- 2018
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Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 24:9, s. 1928-1935
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) offers a potential cure. Life-threatening complications can arise from alloHCT that require the application of sophisticated health care delivery. The impact of country-level economic conditions on post-transplantation outcomes is not known. Our objective was to assess whether these variables were associated with outcomes for patients transplanted for ALL. Using data from the Center for Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, we included 11,261 patients who received a first alloHCT for ALL from 303 centers across 38 countries between the years of 2005 and 2013. Cox regression models were constructed using the following macroeconomic indicators as main effects: Gross national income per capita, health expenditure per capita, and Human Development Index (HDI). The outcome was overall survival at 100 days following transplantation. In each model, transplants performed within lower resourced environments were associated with inferior overall survival. In the model with the HDI as the main effect, transplants performed in the lowest HDI quartile (n = 697) were associated with increased hazard for mortality (hazard ratio, 2.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.64 to 3.57; P < .001) in comparison with transplants performed in the countries with the highest HDI quartile. This translated into an 11% survival difference at 100 days (77% for lowest HDI quartile versus 88% for all other quartiles). Country-level macroeconomic indices were associated with lower survival at 100 days after alloHCT for ALL. The reasons for this disparity require further investigation.
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| 10. |
- Lee, Catherine J., et al.
(författare)
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Late effects after ablative allogeneic stem cell transplantation for adolescent and young adult acute myeloid leukemia
- 2020
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Ingår i: Blood Advances. - : American Society of Hematology. - 2473-9529 .- 2473-9537. ; 4:6, s. 983-992
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is marked paucity of data regarding late effects in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) who undergo myeloablative conditioning (MAC) allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We evaluated late effects and survival in 826 1-year disease-free survivors of MAC HCT for AYA AML, with an additional focus on comparing late effects based upon MAC type (total body irradiation [TBI] vs high-dose chemotherapy only). The estimated 10-year cumulative incidence of subsequent neoplasms was 4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2%-6%); 10-year cumulative incidence of nonmalignant late effects included gonadal dysfunction (10%; 95% CI, 8%-13%), cataracts (10%; 95% CI, 7%-13%), avascular necrosis (8%; 95% CI, 5%-10%), diabetes mellitus (5%; 95% CI, 3%-7%), and hypothyroidism (3%; 95% CI, 2%-5%). Receipt of TBI was independently associated with a higher risk of cataracts only (hazard ratio [HR], 4.98; P < .0001) whereas chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) was associated with an increased risk of cataracts (HR, 3.22; P = .0006), avascular necrosis (HR, 2.49; P = .006), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 3.36; P = .03). Estimated 10-year overall survival and leukemia-free survival were 73% and 70%, respectively, and did not differ on the basis of conditioning type. In conclusion, late effects among survivors of MAC HCT for AYA AML are frequent and are more closely linked to cGVHD than type of conditioning.
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