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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Craddock, Nick, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study of CNVs in 16,000 cases of eight common diseases and 3,000 shared controls
- 2010
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 464:7289, s. 713-720
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Copy number variants (CNVs) account for a major proportion of human genetic polymorphism and have been predicted to have an important role in genetic susceptibility to common disease. To address this we undertook a large, direct genome-wide study of association between CNVs and eight common human diseases. Using a purpose-designed array we typed,19,000 individuals into distinct copy-number classes at 3,432 polymorphic CNVs, including an estimated similar to 50% of all common CNVs larger than 500 base pairs. We identified several biological artefacts that lead to false-positive associations, including systematic CNV differences between DNAs derived from blood and cell lines. Association testing and follow-up replication analyses confirmed three loci where CNVs were associated with disease-IRGM for Crohn's disease, HLA for Crohn's disease, rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes, and TSPAN8 for type 2 diabetes-although in each case the locus had previously been identified in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based studies, reflecting our observation that most common CNVs that are well-typed on our array are well tagged by SNPs and so have been indirectly explored through SNP studies. We conclude that common CNVs that can be typed on existing platforms are unlikely to contribute greatly to the genetic basis of common human diseases.
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| 3. |
- Marcus, Carina, 1971-
(författare)
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Sensor and Signature Modeling for Aircraft Conceptual Development
- 2020
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The aircraft design process has several phases, the first of which is conceptual design. In this phase, models describing an aircraft concept’s properties are used to evaluate its function and identify designs that meet given requirements. Fighter aircraft are generally expected to be capable of communicating, delivering munitions and gathering data about their environment to gain situational awareness. The ability to avoid detection by hostile sensors can also be important, depending on the aircraft’s role.The design process of the aircraft itself has usually focused on an aircraft’s flight performance and ability to carry loads, e.g. munitions and extra fuel. While acceleration, rate of turn, maximum speed, and operational range are important parameters, the success of military missions also depends on sensor capabilities and signature levels. However, sensor installation and signature reduction measures can affect the aircraft and its flight performance. Whether an aircraft concept fulfills the requirements given is evaluated using simulations in appropriate scenarios. The concept’s performance is assessed using models of aircraft properties, weapon properties, sensor capabilities and signature levels. Models of the aircraft properties are usually connected dynamically, and respond to changes in such things as the size of the concept. However, sensor and signature models are often the result of a separate optimization process and are only statically connected to the aircraft model. The complete aircraft model can be improved by introducing sensor and signature models that dynamically describe both their functions, and their impact on the aircraft. Concurrent design of all the aircraft properties may improve the quality of results from scenario simulations. When models used in simulations contain parameters coupled to each other, analysis of the resulting data is particularly important because that is what supports a decision-maker’s design choice.Sensor and signature models, in some cases combined with flight performance models, have been used to test methodologies intended for use in conceptual aircraft design. The results show that even seemingly simple models can produce results that can make a significant contribution to the aircraft design process.
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| 4. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Technology Forecast 2013 Military Utility of Six Technologies : a Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology
- 2013
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and two internet based search reports from Recorded Future have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military- Technology at the Swedish National Defence College (Note that there probably are other technology areas, equally interesting, but not included in this study). The task given by FMV was to assess the military utility of the chosen technologies in a time frame from 2025 to 2030, from a SwAF viewpoint.We assess the military utility of a certain technology, as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios.The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility.The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;Alternative fuelsHigh altitude platformsUnmanned Aerial VehiclesCyber DefenceThe forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" if the tool is combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithmsThe following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;The forecasting and analysis technology described in the report "Future of Cyber Threats" in its present formThe following technology was assessed to have negligible military utility;Walking machinesThe method used was first to make a summary of each forecast report. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that are assessed to be the best in order to show possible military utility as well as possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Conclusions regarding the military utility of the technology were drawn.Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the six technologies’ potential military utility within the presented scenarios, not the technology itself.The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) has been slightly modified from the one used in the Technology Forecast 2012. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future.The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and helps the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.Given the limited quantitative base (only 2 reports) for assessing the potential value of using the tool Temporal Analytics™ used by Recorded Future, our conclusion is nevertheless that the overall value of using the tool for technology forecasting is rather poor. Our assessment is that Recorded Future at present can’t be used as an alternative to the Fraunhofer Institute. Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. In the case of Recorded Future’s technology forecast, the sources that are relevant for making military predictions are considered to be ill-suited for aggregation in the form the tool in focus, Temporal Analytics™, provides. The tool requires further development to fit military purposes. Further use of Recorded Future in the technology forecast process is therefore not recommended, at least not until the tool has been combined with advanced artificial intelligence algorithms.We propose that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC could be involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process giving support to FMV in choosing which technology areas that should be selected to be studied by the Fraunhofer Institute within the framework of the Technology Forecast project (Teknisk Prognos).
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| 5. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Technology Forecast 2014 Military Utility of Four Technologies : A Report from Seminars at the SNDC Department of Military-Technology
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Four technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute have been reviewed by staff at the Department of Military-Technology at the Swedish National Defence College. The task given by the Swedish Defence Material Administration, FMV, was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.We assess the military utility of a certain technology as its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, we will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.The technologies were grouped in three classes; technologies with potentially significant, uncertain or negligible military utility. The classification uncertain is given for technologies that are difficult to put in the two other classes, however it is not because the technology readiness level (TRL) is not reached by 2040.The following technologies were assessed to have a potential for significant military utility;Kinodynamic motion planning This technology is a prerequisite for reaching full autonomy of highly agile unmanned systems and is probably a logical, evolutionary way to go forward. It will affect most SwAF capabilities through enhanced mobility. This technology should be studied by the SwAF, preferably within all operational environments.Bio-inspired Adaptive Camouflage Surfaces "Bio-inspired camouflage" should be viewed in a broad multispectral perspective involving design requirements for low contrast in the visual- and IR-spectrum as well as, for most applications, low reflectivity in the radar-band. There is an ongoing duel between sensor development and camouflage systems and our assessment is that the fewer and more valuable platforms we have, we will need better camouflage performance in order to maintain low probability of detection and short detection distances for an adversary, at least if faced with a technologically mature adversary. Our overall assessment is that bio-inspired adaptive camouflage systems have significant potential for military utility.UCAV If the idea that UCAV are superior in air combat is realizable, we may be facing a paradigm shift of the same magnitude as that which airborne radar or air-to-air missiles introduced. Thus, UCAV are deemed to have potential for significant military utility in future air operations even though it is, at present, hard to predict how they will be used to maximize their military utility.The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility;Bulk metallic glass (BMG) If BMG innovations prove to form a new performance step in armour and weapons development, it will from a Swedish perspective be crucial to take part in that development or else take the risk of being inferior on the battlefield. Given the many uncertainties concerning production and applications, we assess BMGs to have uncertain potential for military utility in 2040. However, the SwAF should monitor the development and applications in this area.None of the studied technologies were found to have negligible military utility. .The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each Fraunhofer report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in 2030-40 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of the technologies. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the contribution to SwAF capabilities and the cost in terms of acquisition, C2 footprint, logistic footprint, doctrine/TTP, training, facilities and R&D were assessed. Finally, conclusions regarding the potential military utility of the technology were drawn.The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same that was used in the Technology Forecast 2013. It is believed to be good enough for this report, but could be further elaborated in the future. An article that in depth presents our concept of military utility has been elaborated at the department.1Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. The scenarios that were chosen do not cover all aspects of the technology and their possible contribution to operational capabilities. It should be stressed that we have assessed the four technologies’ potential military utility within the specific presented scenarios, not the technology itself. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned.The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and the tradeoff that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide for a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report provides executive summaries of the Fraunhofer and Recorded Future reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarter to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.We appreciate that the Department of Military Technology at SNDC this time has been involved in the early phase of the Technology Forecast process.
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| 6. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Technology Forecast 2016: The Military Utility of Future Technologies : a Report from seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s Military-Technology Division
- 2016
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Three technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute and four reports on literature studies (sometimes called scanning reports) from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration FMV was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) point of view.In the review we assess the military utility of a certain technology as a possible contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified relevant scenarios. Since a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report will only present general assessments of the capability impact from the technologies under study.The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.The following technology was assessed to have a potential for significant military utility; Multi robot systemsThe following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility; Over-the-Horizon Radar Space-based imaging radarThe following technology was found to have negligible military utility. Moving Target DefenceThe following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility; Software-Defined Networking Transient Materials- Programmed to Perish, but this technology should be monitored since it might reach high technical readiness level (TRL) by 2050-60The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. First, a summary of each forecast report was made. The Fraunhofer assessment of TRL in the time period to 2035 was held to be correct. The technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were deemed to be suitable in order to assess the military utility as well as indicate possibilities and drawbacks of each technology. Based on a SWOT-analysis, the assessed contribution to the fundamental capabilities and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities and Interoperability) were listed. Furthermore, the expected requirements on the SwAF R&D in order to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given.As a consequence of our continuing development of the evaluation process, we have for the first time used a model developed at the division of Military-Technology to assess the Military utility1 of the technologies. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating regarding the potential military utility of each technology were presented.The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition (the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios) is the same as used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that the assessment is biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experiences from their own field of research. Also, it should be stressed that the six technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios, and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis this is mentioned. The last chapter of this report analyzes thinking and debate on war and warfare in three military great powers: USA, Russia and China. Therefore, this chapter has a different structure. Aspects of military technology are discussed at the end of the chapter, but no assessment of the military utility is made.The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used is believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies under study. This report is to been seen as an executive summary of the Fraunhofer reports and the reports on literature studies from FOI. The intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.Overall, the quality of the Fraunhofer reports is considered to be balanced and of a high level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies. The FOI reports are considered to be high quality. However, the selection of topics can be discussed since the selection
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| 7. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
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Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies : A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division
- 2017
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:- Nanocarbons for photonic applicationsThe following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;- Internet of things (IoT)- Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agentsThe following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;- Post-quantum cryptography- New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agentsNo technology was found to have negligible military utility.The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Sturesson, Peter, 1981-
(författare)
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Sense, Actuate and Survive : Ceramic Microsystems for High-Temperature Aerospace Applications
- 2018
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In aerospace applications, but also in manufacturing, mining, energy industry and natural hazards, high temperature, corrosion, erosion and radiation, challenge the performance and being of hardware.In this work, high-temperature co-fired ceramic (HTCC) alumina and platinum have been used for a range of devices intended for aerospace applications at up to 1000°C.The thermomechanics of a pressure sensor was investigated, and the interfacing was attained by wireless powering and reading. However, read range was limited and sensitivity decreased with temperature. Silver, electroplated after sintering, was found to remedy this until it eventually alloyed with platinum.Copper was electroplated and oxidized for oxygen storage in a microcombustor, intended for sample preparation for optogalvanic spectroscopy (OGS) to indicate extraterrestrial life. Despite delamination, caused by residual stresses, the device operated successfully.Conversely, pre-firing metallization by integration of platinum wires was studied. Freely suspended, and despite heat-induced shape irregularities, these were found advantageous over screen printed elements for gas heating, and temperature and pressure sensing. By fusing off the wires, spherical tips, allowing for impedance monitoring of microplasma sources in, e.g., OGS, were formed.Microplasma sources can also be used for gas heating. This, together with screen printed and suspended resistive heaters, was evaluated in a microthruster, showing that plasma heating is the most effective, implying fuel consumption reduction in satellite propulsion.In conclusion, HTCC alumina microdevices are thermally stable and could benefit several aerospace applications, especially with the complementary metallization schemes devised here.Future developments are expected to include both processing and design, all with the intention of sensing, actuating and surviving in high-temperature environments.
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