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- Abdo, A. A., et al.
(författare)
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OBSERVATIONS OF MILKY WAY DWARF SPHEROIDAL GALAXIES WITH THE FERMI-LARGE AREA TELESCOPE DETECTOR AND CONSTRAINTS ON DARK MATTER MODELS
- 2010
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 712:1, s. 147-158
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the observations of 14 dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) with the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope taken during the first 11 months of survey mode operations. The Fermi telescope, which is conducting an all-sky gamma-ray survey in the 20 MeV to > 300 GeV energy range, provides a new opportunity to test particle dark matter models through the expected gamma-ray emission produced by pair annihilation of weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs). Local Group dSphs, the largest galactic substructures predicted by the cold dark matter scenario, are attractive targets for such indirect searches for dark matter because they are nearby and among the most extreme dark matter dominated environments. No significant gamma-ray emission was detected above 100 MeV from the candidate dwarf galaxies. We determine upper limits to the gamma-ray flux assuming both power-law spectra and representative spectra from WIMP annihilation. The resulting integral flux above 100 MeV is constrained to be at a level below around 10(-9) photons cm(-2) s(-1). Using recent stellar kinematic data, the gamma-ray flux limits are combined with improved determinations of the dark matter density profile in eight of the 14 candidate dwarfs to place limits on the pair-annihilation cross section of WIMPs in several widely studied extensions of the standard model, including its supersymmetric extension and other models that received recent attention. With the present data, we are able to rule out large parts of the parameter space where the thermal relic density is below the observed cosmological dark matter density and WIMPs (neutralinos here) are dominantly produced non-thermally, e. g., in models where supersymmetry breaking occurs via anomaly mediation. The gamma-ray limits presented here also constrain some WIMP models proposed to explain the Fermi and PAMELA e(+)e(-) data, including low-mass wino-like neutralinos and models with TeV masses pair annihilating into muon-antimuon pairs.
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- Whittaker, Jackie L., et al.
(författare)
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OPTIKNEE 2022 : Consensus recommendations to optimise knee health after traumatic knee injury to prevent osteoarthritis
- 2022
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Ingår i: British journal of sports medicine. - : BMJ. - 0306-3674 .- 1473-0480. ; 56:24, s. 1393-1405
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The goal of the OPTIKNEE consensus is to improve knee and overall health, to prevent osteoarthritis (OA) after a traumatic knee injury. The consensus followed a seven-step hybrid process. Expert groups conducted 7 systematic reviews to synthesise the current evidence and inform recommendations on the burden of knee injuries; risk factors for post-traumatic knee OA; rehabilitation to prevent post-traumatic knee OA; and patient-reported outcomes, muscle function and functional performance tests to monitor people at risk of post-traumatic knee OA. Draft consensus definitions, and clinical and research recommendations were generated, iteratively refined, and discussed at 6, tri-weekly, 2-hour videoconferencing meetings. After each meeting, items were finalised before the expert group (n=36) rated the level of appropriateness for each using a 9-point Likert scale, and recorded dissenting viewpoints through an anonymous online survey. Seven definitions, and 8 clinical recommendations (who to target, what to target and when, rehabilitation approach and interventions, what outcomes to monitor and how) and 6 research recommendations (research priorities, study design considerations, what outcomes to monitor and how) were voted on. All definitions and recommendations were rated appropriate (median appropriateness scores of 7-9) except for two subcomponents of one clinical recommendation, which were rated uncertain (median appropriateness score of 4.5-5.5). Varying levels of evidence supported each recommendation. Clinicians, patients, researchers and other stakeholders may use the definitions and recommendations to advocate for, guide, develop, test and implement person-centred evidence-based rehabilitation programmes following traumatic knee injury, and facilitate data synthesis to reduce the burden of knee post-traumatic knee OA.
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- Saastamoinen, Marjo, et al.
(författare)
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Genetics of dispersal
- 2018
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Ingår i: Biological Reviews. - : Wiley. - 1464-7931 .- 1469-185X. ; 93:1, s. 574-599
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dispersal is a process of central importance for the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations and communities, because of its diverse consequences for gene flow and demography. It is subject to evolutionary change, which begs the question, what is the genetic basis of this potentially complex trait? To address this question, we (i) review the empirical literature on the genetic basis of dispersal, (ii) explore how theoretical investigations of the evolution of dispersal have represented the genetics of dispersal, and (iii) discuss how the genetic basis of dispersal influences theoretical predictions of the evolution of dispersal and potential consequences. Dispersal has a detectable genetic basis in many organisms, from bacteria to plants and animals. Generally, there is evidence for significant genetic variation for dispersal or dispersal-related phenotypes or evidence for the micro-evolution of dispersal in natural populations. Dispersal is typically the outcome of several interacting traits, and this complexity is reflected in its genetic architecture: while some genes of moderate to large effect can influence certain aspects of dispersal, dispersal traits are typically polygenic. Correlations among dispersal traits as well as between dispersal traits and other traits under selection are common, and the genetic basis of dispersal can be highly environment-dependent. By contrast, models have historically considered a highly simplified genetic architecture of dispersal. It is only recently that models have started to consider multiple loci influencing dispersal, as well as non-additive effects such as dominance and epistasis, showing that the genetic basis of dispersal can influence evolutionary rates and outcomes, especially under non-equilibrium conditions. For example, the number of loci controlling dispersal can influence projected rates of dispersal evolution during range shifts and corresponding demographic impacts. Incorporating more realism in the genetic architecture of dispersal is thus necessary to enable models to move beyond the purely theoretical towards making more useful predictions of evolutionary and ecological dynamics under current and future environmental conditions. To inform these advances, empirical studies need to answer outstanding questions concerning whether specific genes underlie dispersal variation, the genetic architecture of context-dependent dispersal phenotypes and behaviours, and correlations among dispersal and other traits.
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- Oliver, Tom H, et al.
(författare)
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Overcoming undesirable resilience in the global food system
- 2018
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 2059-4798. ; 1:e9, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Our current global food system – from food production to consumption, including manufacture, packaging, transport, retail and associated businesses – is responsible for extensive negative social and environmental impacts which threaten the long-term well-being of society. This has led to increasing calls from science–policy organizations for major reform and transformation of the global food system. However, our knowledge regarding food system transformations is fragmented and this is hindering the development of co-ordinated solutions. Here, we collate recent research across several academic disciplines and sectors in order to better understand the mechanisms that ‘lock-in’ food systems in unsustainable states.
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- Spake, Rebecca, et al.
(författare)
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Unpacking ecosystem service bundles : Towards predictive mapping of synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 47, s. 37-50
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multiple ecosystem services (ES) can respond similarly to social and ecological factors to form bundles. Identifying key social-ecological variables and understanding how they co-vary to produce these consistent sets of ES may ultimately allow the prediction and modelling of ES bundles, and thus, help us understand critical synergies and trade-offs across landscapes. Such an understanding is essential for informing better management of multi-functional landscapes and minimising costly trade-offs. However, the relative importance of different social and biophysiCal drivers of ES bundles in different types of social-ecological systems remains unclear. As such, a bottom-up understanding of the determinants of ES bundles is a critical research gap in ES and sustainability science. Here, we evaluate the current methods used in ES bundle science and synthesize these into four steps that capture the plurality of methods used to examine predictors of ES bundles. We then apply these four steps to a cross-study comparison (North and South French Alps) of relationships between social-ecological variables and ES bundles, as it is widely advocated that cross-study comparisons are necessary for achieving a general understanding of predictors of ES associations. We use the results of this case study to assess the strengths and limitations of current approaches for understanding distributions of ES bundles. We conclude that inconsistency of spatial scale remains the primary barrier for understanding and predicting ES bundles. We suggest a hypothesis-driven approach is required to predict relationships between ES, and we outline the research required for such an understanding to emerge.
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- Willcock, Simon, et al.
(författare)
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A Continental-Scale Validation of Ecosystem Service Models
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ecosystems. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-9840 .- 1435-0629. ; 22:8, s. 1902-1917
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.
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- Willcock, Simon, et al.
(författare)
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Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty
- 2020
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 747
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many ecosystem services (ES) models exist to support sustainable development decisions. However, most ES studies use only a single modelling framework and, because of a lack of validation data, rarely assess model accuracy for the study area. In line with other research themes which have high model uncertainty, such as climate change, ensembles of ES models may better serve decision-makers by providing more robust and accurate estimates, as well as provide indications of uncertainty when validation data are not available. To illustrate the benefits of an ensemble approach, we highlight the variation between alternative models, demonstrating that there are large geographic regions where decisions based on individual models are not robust. We test if ensembles are more accurate by comparing the ensemble accuracy of multiple models for six ES against validation data across sub-Saharan Africa with the accuracy of individual models. We find that ensembles are better predictors of ES, being 5.0-6.1% more accurate than individual models. We also find that the uncertainty (i.e. variation among constituent models) of the model ensemble is negatively correlated with accuracy and so can be used as a proxy for accuracy when validation is not possible (e.g. in data-deficient areas or when developing scenarios). Since ensembles are more robust, accurate and convey uncertainty, we recommend that ensemble modelling should be more widely implemented within ES science to better support policy choices and implementation.
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