| 1. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Goderis, Steven, et al.
(författare)
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Globally distributed iridium layer preserved within the Chicxulub impact structure
- 2021
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 7:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction is marked globally by elevated concentrations of iridium, emplaced by a hypervelocity impact event 66 million years ago. Here, we report new data from four independent laboratories that reveal a positive iridium anomaly within the peak-ring sequence of the Chicxulub impact structure, in drill core recovered by IODP-ICDP Expedition 364. The highest concentration of ultrafine meteoritic matter occurs in the post-impact sediments that cover the crater peak ring, just below the lowermost Danian pelagic limestone. Within years to decades after the impact event, this part of the Chicxulub impact basin returned to a relatively low-energy depositional environment, recording in unprecedented detail the recovery of life during the succeeding millennia. The iridium layer provides a key temporal horizon precisely linking Chicxulub to K-Pg boundary sections worldwide.
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| 3. |
- Sator, Lea, et al.
(författare)
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Overdiagnosis of COPD in Subjects With Unobstructed Spirometry A BOLD Analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: Chest. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-3692 .- 1931-3543. ; 156:2, s. 277-288
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: There are several reports on underdiagnosis of COPD, while little is known about COPD overdiagnosis and overtreatment. We describe the overdiagnosis and the prevalence of spirometrically defined false positive COPD, as well as their relationship with overtreatment across 23 population samples in 20 countries participating in the BOLD Study between 2003 and 2012.METHODS: A false positive diagnosis of COPD was considered when participants reported a doctor's diagnosis of COPD, but postbronchodilator spirometry was unobstructed (FEV1/FVC > LLN). Additional analyses were performed using the fixed ratio criterion (FEV1/FVC < 0.7).RESULTS: Among 16,177 participants, 919 (5.7%) reported a previous medical diagnosis of COPD. Postbronchodilator spirometry was unobstructed in 569 subjects (61.9%): false positive COPD. A similar rate of overdiagnosis was seen when using the fixed ratio criterion (55.3%). In a subgroup analysis excluding participants who reported a diagnosis of "chronic bronchitis" or "emphysema" (n = 220), 37.7% had no airflow limitation. The site-specific prevalence of false positive COPD varied greatly, from 1.9% in low- to middle-income countries to 4.9% in high-income countries. In multivariate analysis, overdiagnosis was more common among women, and was associated with higher education; former and current smoking; the presence of wheeze, cough, and phlegm; and concomitant medical diagnosis of asthma or heart disease. Among the subjects with false positive COPD, 45.7% reported current use of respiratory medication. Excluding patients with reported asthma, 34.4% of those with normal spirometry still used a respiratory medication.CONCLUSIONS: False positive COPD is frequent. This might expose nonobstructed subjects to possible adverse effects of respiratory medication.
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| 4. |
- Abozid, Hazim, et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence of chronic cough, its risk factors and population attributable risk in the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study : a multinational cross-sectional study
- 2024
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Ingår i: eClinicalMedicine. - : Elsevier. - 2589-5370. ; 68
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Chronic cough is a common respiratory symptom with an impact on daily activities and quality of life. Global prevalence data are scarce and derive mainly from European and Asian countries and studies with outcomes other than chronic cough. In this study, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of chronic cough across a large number of study sites as well as to identify its main risk factors using a standardised protocol and definition. Methods We analysed cross-sectional data from 33,983 adults (>= 40 years), recruited between Jan 2, 2003 and Dec 26, 2016, in 41 sites (34 countries) from the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study. We estimated the prevalence of chronic cough for each site accounting for sampling design. To identify risk factors, we conducted multivariable logistic regression analysis within each site and then pooled estimates using random -effects metaanalysis. We also calculated the population attributable risk (PAR) associated with each of the identifed risk factors. Findings The prevalence of chronic cough varied from 3% in India (rural Pune) to 24% in the United States of America (Lexington,KY). Chronic cough was more common among females, both current and passive smokers, those working in a dusty job, those with a history of tuberculosis, those who were obese, those with a low level of education and those with hypertension or airflow limitation. The most influential risk factors were current smoking and working in a dusty job. Interpretation Our findings suggested that the prevalence of chronic cough varies widely across sites in different world regions. Cigarette smoking and exposure to dust in the workplace are its major risk factors.
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| 5. |
- Amaral, Andre F. S., et al.
(författare)
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Chronic airflow obstruction and ambient particulate air pollution
- 2021
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Ingår i: Thorax. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0040-6376 .- 1468-3296. ; 76:12, s. 1236-1241
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Smoking is the most well-established cause of chronic airflow obstruction (CAO) but particulate air pollution and poverty have also been implicated. We regressed sex-specific prevalence of CAO from 41 Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study sites against smoking prevalence from the same study, the gross national income per capita and the local annual mean level of ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) using negative binomial regression. The prevalence of CAO was not independently associated with PM2.5 but was strongly associated with smoking and was also associated with poverty. Strengthening tobacco control and improved understanding of the link between CAO and poverty should be prioritised.
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| 8. |
- Amaral, Andre F. S., et al.
(författare)
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Tuberculosis associates with both airflow obstruction and low lung function : BOLD results
- 2015
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Ingår i: European Respiratory Journal. - : European Respiratory Society (ERS). - 0903-1936 .- 1399-3003. ; 46:4, s. 1104-1112
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In small studies and cases series, a history of tuberculosis has been associated with both airflow obstruction, which is characteristic of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and restrictive patterns on spirometry. The objective of the present study was to assess the association between a history of tuberculosis and airflow obstruction and spirometric abnormalities in adults. The study was performed in adults, aged 40 years and above, who took part in the multicentre, cross-sectional, general population-based Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study, and had provided acceptable post-bronchodilator spirometry measurements and information on a history of tuberculosis. The associations between a history of tuberculosis and airflow obstruction and spirometric restriction were assessed within each participating centre, and estimates combined using meta-analysis. These estimates were stratified by high- and low/middle-income countries, according to gross national income. A self-reported history of tuberculosis was associated with airflow obstruction (adjusted odds ratio 2.51, 95% CI 1.83-3.42) and spirometric restriction (adjusted odds ratio 2.13, 95% CI 1.42-3.19). A history of tuberculosis was associated with both airflow obstruction and spirometric restriction, and should be considered as a potentially important cause of obstructive disease and low lung function, particularly where tuberculosis is common.
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| 9. |
- Burney, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality and prevalence : the associations with smoking and poverty-a BOLD analysis
- 2014
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Ingår i: Thorax. - : BMJ. - 0040-6376 .- 1468-3296. ; 69:5, s. 465-473
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a commonly reported cause of death and associated with smoking. However, COPD mortality is high in poor countries with low smoking rates. Spirometric restriction predicts mortality better than airflow obstruction, suggesting that the prevalence of restriction could explain mortality rates attributed to COPD. We have studied associations between mortality from COPD and low lung function, and between both lung function and death rates and cigarette consumption and gross national income per capita (GNI). Methods National COPD mortality rates were regressed against the prevalence of airflow obstruction and spirometric restriction in 22 Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study sites and against GNI, and national smoking prevalence. The prevalence of airflow obstruction and spirometric restriction in the BOLD sites were regressed against GNI and mean pack years smoked. Results National COPD mortality rates were more strongly associated with spirometric restriction in the BOLD sites (<60 years: men r(s)=0.73, p=0.0001; women r(s)=0.90, p<0.0001; 60+ years: men r(s)=0.63, p=0.0022; women r(s)=0.37, p=0.1) than obstruction (<60 years: men r(s)=0.28, p=0.20; women r(s)=0.17, p<0.46; 60+ years: men r(s)=0.28, p=0.23; women r(s)=0.22, p=0.33). Obstruction increased with mean pack years smoked, but COPD mortality fell with increased cigarette consumption and rose rapidly as GNI fell below US$ 15 000. Prevalence of restriction was not associated with smoking but also increased rapidly as GNI fell below US$ 15 000. Conclusions Smoking remains the single most important cause of obstruction but a high prevalence of restriction associated with poverty could explain the high 'COPD' mortality in poor countries.
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