| 1. |
- Cai, Zipan, et al.
(författare)
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How Does ICT Expansion Drive "Smart" Urban Growth? : A Case Study of Nanjing, China
- 2020
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Ingår i: Urban Planning. - : COGITATIO PRESS. - 2183-7635. ; 5:1, s. 129-139
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the context of accelerated urbanization, socioeconomic development, and population growth, as well as the rapid advancement of information and communication technology (ICT), urban land is rapidly expanding worldwide. Unplanned urban growth has led to the low utilization efficiency of land resources. Also, ecological and agricultural lands are continuously sacrificed for urban construction, which in the long-term may severely impact the health of citizens in cities. A thorough understanding of the mechanisms and driving forces of a city's urban land use changes, including the influence of ICT development, is therefore crucial to the formation of optimal and feasible urban planning in the new era. Taking Nanjing as a study case, this article attempts to explore the measurable "smart" driving indicators of urban land use change and analyze the tapestry of the relationship between these and urban land use change. Different from the traditional linear regression analysis method of driving force of urban land use change, this study focuses on the interaction relationship and the underlying causal relationship among various "smart" driving factors, so it adopts a fuzzy statistical method, namely the grey relational analysis (GRA). Through the integration of literature research and known effective data, five categories of "smart" indicators have been taken as the primary driving factors: industry and economy, transportation, humanities and science, ICT systems, and environmental management. The results show that these indicators have different impacts on driving urban built-up land growth. Accordingly, optimization possibilities and recommendations for development strategies are proposed to realize a "smarter" development direction in Nanjing. This article confirms the effectiveness of GRA for studies on the driving mechanisms of urban land use change and provides a theoretical basis for the development goals of a smart city.
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| 2. |
- Cai, Zipan, et al.
(författare)
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Spatial dynamic modelling for urban scenario planning : A case study of Nanjing, China
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environment and planning B. - : SAGE Publications. - 2399-8083 .- 2399-8091. ; 47:8, s. 1380-1396
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although urban scenario planning is widely applied for exploring various directions of urban development, it often has high requirements on the medium of quantitative information analysis and transformation. Thus, this study establishes a method of combining scenario planning with a spatial dynamic planning support system to predict urban growth. Specifically, a scenario-based spatial dynamic modelling method is integrated with the information module of planning policy for better decision support. The integrated modelling method is applied for an actual urban land use planning case of Nanjing, an evolving city in China. The spatial forms of future urban land use are simulated under four different pre-set policy scenarios. The differences in simulated results under multi-criteria restrictions reveal the effectiveness and practical value of the integration approach. The findings of this study provide policymakers with a process-based approach to test and evaluate ‘what-if’ consequences and help stakeholders reach consensus.
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| 3. |
- Cai, Zipan, 1992-
(författare)
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Towards a Scenario-based Spatial Dynamic Modeling for Predicting Urban Land Use Change : Planning Tools and Comparative Analysis
- 2023
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- As global urbanization progresses, cities worldwide are growing in size, which leads to many economic, environmental, and management challenges. Recent advancements in spatial data analysis and algorithmic geography have also led to the development of various urban model-based planning support systems (PSS) for urban planning. These PSSs aim to assist urban decision-makers in understanding urban information and collaborating on planning to address urban development challenges. Advanced urban planning concepts are, however, always multidisciplinary, multi-situational, and continuously evolving. In addition to the development of more advanced urban information and communications technology (ICT) and management, planning concepts that promote urban health and sustainable development are needed to meet residents’ physical, spiritual, and social needs, and promote more sustainable lifestyles. These factors create the need for a more rigorous methodological and theoretical foundation to apply PSS to urban planning at the microscale. A scenario-based spatial dynamic modeling approach is proposed in this thesis to address this research gap, allowing for a more precise matching of local policy scenarios and desired development patterns for practical planning support purposes. Several urban development scenarios and their potential impacts are explored by analyzing future urban land use changes. The establishment of this planning support approach effectively integrates spatial analysis, simulation model, policy revision, and participative planning. First, the thesis examines the rules and correlations underlying land unit transformations resulting from human-land interactions in spatial dynamic models by investigating mechanisms driving changes in urban land use. Second, a series of possible urban development simulations are generated through several case studies that employ a variety of representative cities with different urban contexts as model test sites including Nanjing in China, Stockholm in Sweden, and Chicago in the USA to evaluate their validity and practicality. Socioeconomics, ecological systems, and urban amenities are among the research themes that provide a more realistic and practical view of urban development. Last, visualization of the simulation results and quantitative information analyses and transformation is utilized to arrive at recommendations for revising planning policies and promoting sustainable development strategies.The challenge of adapting successful experiences of urban transformation from one city to another is considerable and cannot be achieved by merely replicating single projects or developments. An important goal was to address this challenge by developing general methods for model-assisted planning and then exploring their applicability and scalability across different contexts and geographical regions. Obtained results confirm that prioritizing industrial and transportation sectors in urban development is the most significant factor contributing to the rapid expansion of cities. This allocation of resources leads to the development of supporting infrastructure and employment opportunities, thereby attracting more people and industries to urban areas. Limiting the expansion of built-up areas and preserving green spaces is a desired measure to protect natural assets and the composition of cities and mitigate the negative environmental consequences of urbanization. Moreover, it is found that there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal needs and dependencies of residents in different areas with respect to natural and social amenities, providing a basis for future land development in residential and commercial areas of a city. Based on these findings, policymakers can more readily test and evaluate “what-if” scenarios using a process-based approach to avoid uncontrolled urban growth. In spite of limitations and uncertainties, the tools presented in this thesis are relevant for urban policymakers to enhance stakeholder interaction and consensus building in the decision-making process. This work has demonstrated the methodological steps for the implementation of these tools, as well as the general potential benefits of dynamic modeling for sustainable city planning and development.
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| 4. |
- Cai, Zipan, et al.
(författare)
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Urban Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment of Support Climate‐ResilientCity Development
- 2021
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Ingår i: Urban Planning. - : Cogitatio. - 2183-7635. ; :3, s. 227-239
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change poses a threat to cities. Geospatial information and communication technology (Geo-ICT) assisted planning is increasingly being utilised to foster urban sustainability and adaptability to climate change. To fill the theoretical and practical gaps of urban adaptive planning and Geo-ICT implementation, this article presents an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach using integrated socio-ecological modelling. The application of the Geo-ICT method is demonstrated in a specific case study of climate-resilient city development in Nanjing (China), aiming at helping city decision-makers understand the general geographic data processing and policy revision processes in response to hypothetical future disruptions and pressures on urban social, economic, and environmental systems. Ideally, the conceptual framework of the climate-resilient city transition proposed in this study effectively integrates the geographic data analysis, policy modification, and participatory planning. In the process of model building, we put forward the index system of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment and use the assessment result as input data for the socio-ecological model. As a result, the model reveals the interaction processes of local land use, economy, and environment, further generating an evolving state of future land use in the studied city. The findings of this study demonstrate that socio-ecological modelling can provide guidance in adjusting the human-land interaction and climate-resilient city development from the perspective of macro policy. The decision support using urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment and quantitative system modelling can be useful for urban development under a variety of environmental change scenarios.
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| 5. |
- Cai, Zipan, 1992-, et al.
(författare)
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Urban spatial dynamic modeling based on urban amenity data to inform smart city planning
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- An ideal form of smart city planning would focus on the availability of urban amenities that can meet the basic needs of a residents material life, civil connections, and humanistic spirit. Previous studies have concentrated on analyzing the spatial distribution of urban services, with less attention on their contribution as local urban amenities. In this study, we propose a spatial dynamic modeling approach based on urban amenities using social media data from Google Place API to provide locational information on potential resident interactions. We use a representative region in Europe (Stockholm County, SE) to simulate and project urban development in the region, until 2050. Our circular conceptual framework of spatial information and feedback supports decision-makers in testing possible urban planning scenarios that align with the vision of a smart city. Simulation results reveal the interplay between human-land interactions on a specific spatial-temporal scale, and we analyze scenario outcomes in relation to commercial and residential land uses. Overall, our study provides a new perspective on human-social behavior-driven urban development, through a smart, spatial dynamic model as a planning support system that can enhance accuracy and realism, and ultimately help realize planned development objectives in the region.
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| 6. |
- Cai, Zipan, et al.
(författare)
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Urban spatial dynamic modeling based on urban amenity data to inform smart city planning
- 2023
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-3054. ; 42
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An ideal form of smart city planning would focus on the availability of urban amenities that can meet the basic needs of a resident's material life, civil connections, and humanistic spirit. Previous studies have concentrated on analyzing the spatial distribution of urban services, with less attention on their contribution as local urban amenities. In this study, we propose a spatial dynamic modeling approach based on urban amenities using social media data from Google Place API to provide locational information on potential resident interactions. We use a representative region in Europe (Stockholm County, SE) to simulate and project urban development in the region until 2050. Our circular conceptual framework of spatial information and feedback supports decision-makers in testing possible urban planning scenarios that align with the vision of a smart city. Simulation results reveal the interplay between human-land interactions on a specific spatial-temporal scale, and we analyze scenario outcomes in relation to commercial and residential land uses. Overall, our study provides a new perspective on human-social behavior-driven urban development, through a smart, spatial dynamic model as a planning support system that can enhance realism, and ultimately help realize planned development objectives in the region.
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| 7. |
- Kåresdotter, Elisie, et al.
(författare)
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Navigating the Currents: Understanding Global Water Cooperation and Conflict Mitigation Dynamics
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The demand for water is increasing rapidly due to growing populations and intensified human activities such as agriculture, industry, and energy production. This has led to increasing concerns about the availability and sustainable use of freshwater, as conflicts over water are reported to have increased while cooperation has declined over the past decade. Further research on water-related conflict and cooperation is needed to improve understanding of key factors and ways to mitigate the conflicts and counteract their escalating trend. This study investigates which main factors relate to and may have affected cooperation and conflict events worldwide in the last 70 years as a basis for understanding how to promote effective water-based cooperation and conflict reduction; investigated factors include, for example, hydro-climatic and socioeconomic ones, with the latter encompassing, e.g., wealth, export dependency, demographic, and water use factors. The study used panel data models and content analysis of reported event descriptions to achieve its aims of identifying main conflict-influencing factors and which of these may contribute to successful conflict mitigation. The results indicate that countries that cooperate experience significant subsequent decrease in conflicts. Cooperation is particularly effective in areas with low water stress, while in high-stress areas, diplomatic efforts combined with economic collaboration can boost resilience and increase conflict resolution effectiveness. Economic robustness and trade incentives to maintain peace are strongly correlated with fewer conflicts. Cooperation with less affluent countries also emerges as influential for fewer conflicts, and stability or even growth in GDP and exports. Cooperation efforts can thus be strategic investments for promoting diplomatic stability and improving a nation's economic standing. Understanding which measures can be successful for conflict mitigation can provide valuable insights to global policymakers and water management leaders, enabling them to avoid future conflicts based on current and projected water availability.
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| 8. |
- Pan, Haozhi, et al.
(författare)
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Contribution of prioritized urban nature-based solutions allocation to carbon neutrality
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Nature. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 13:8, s. 862-870
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nature-based solutions (NBS) are essential for carbon-neutral cities, yet how to effectively allocate them remains a question. Carbon neutrality requires city-led climate action plans that incorporate both indirect and direct contributions of NBS. Here we assessed the carbon emissions mitigation potential of NBS in European cities, focusing particularly on commonly overlooked indirect pathways, for example, human behavioural interventions and resource savings. Assuming maximum theoretical implementation, NBS in the residential, transport and industrial sectors could reduce urban carbon emissions by up to 25%. Spatially prioritizing different types of NBS in 54 major European Union cities could reduce anthropogenic carbon emissions by on average 17.4%. Coupling NBS with other existing measures in Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios could reduce total carbon emissions by 57.3% in 2030, with both indirect pathways and sequestration. Our results indicate that carbon neutrality will be near for some pioneering cities by 2030, while three can achieve it completely.
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| 9. |
- Pan, Haozhi, et al.
(författare)
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Potential contribution of prioritized spatial allocation of nature-based solutions to climate neutrality in major EU cities
- 2024
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We assessed the mitigation potential of nature-based solutions (NbS) within commonly overlooked pathways, including human behavioral interventions and resource savings, in addition to the well-understood carbon sequestration area. We found that general NbS implementation in the residential, transport, and industrial sectors of European cities can reduce urban carbon emissions by up to 25%. Based on spatial patterns of carbon emissions and the local context of each city, we then prioritized spatial allocation of different types of NbS implementations within 54 major EU cities, in order to maximize the carbon emissions reduction potential. We found that prioritized NbS could reduce human activity-related carbon emissions by on average 17.4% for all cities, with 8.1%, 14.0%, and 9.6% reduction in the residential, industrial, and transport sector, respectively, while 5.6% of the remaining carbon emissions could be captured by carbon sequestration. Projections to 2030 showed that prioritized NbS implementations on all available land parcels in the RCP 1.9 scenario would reduce total carbon emissions by on average 62.5% (95% CI: 47.9–66.7%) compared with the baseline scenario, with NbS capturing 22.0% marginal emissions and sequestration capturing 13.3%. Some pioneering cities climate action are projected to be very close to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 while 3 cities can realize the goal. For carbon neutrality, cities therefore need to co-integrate indirect (human behaviors and resource saving) and direct (sequestration) contributions of NbS into aggressive climate action plans.
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| 10. |
- Zhang, L., et al.
(författare)
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Socioecological informed comparative modeling to promote sustainable urban policy transitions : Case study in Chicago and Stockholm
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0959-6526 .- 1879-1786. ; 281
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Adapting successes of policy transition from one city to another has been more difficult than single case of successful sustainability-driven projects and developments. A thorough understanding of local biophysical and socio-economic conditions is essential in formulating effective development plans and policies. Here, we propose the use of a social-ecological model as a comparative tool to help understand these critical components in order to inform sustainability-driven strategic interventions and best practice learning. We use the cities of Chicago and Stockholm as our comparison cases, and explore the spatial relationships between development patterns and accessibility attractors such as employment, transportation, and recreational opportunities. Potential environmental impacts are evaluated for comparison using ecosystem service value and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The results indicate that although each city exhibits distinctive patterns of development, there are commonalities to build on for potential adaption strategies. For example, to mitigate the high ecosystem service and NDVI losses of Chicago from urban development, what can be learned from Stockholm are: 1) promoting infill for future residential development; and 2) stronger restrictions on both commercial and residential developments on buffer zones of valuable ecosystem services, especially waterways. These findings help us to understand the driving forces of different patterns of urban growth and to give suggestions on city-specific sustainability policies.
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