| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 5. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 6. |
- Ahlström, Aisling, 1976, et al.
(författare)
-
A double-blind randomized controlled trial investigating a time-lapse algorithm for selecting Day 5 blastocysts for transfer
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Human Reproduction. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0268-1161 .- 1460-2350. ; 37:4, s. 708-717
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- STUDY QUESTION Can use of a commercially available time-lapse algorithm for Day 5 blastocyst selection improve pregnancy rates compared with morphology alone? SUMMARY ANSWER The use of a time-lapse selection model to choose blastocysts for fresh single embryo transfer on Day 5 did not improve ongoing pregnancy rate compared to morphology alone. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Evidence from time-lapse monitoring suggests correlations between timing of key developmental events and embryo viability. No good quality evidence exists to support improved pregnancy rates following time-lapse selection. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A prospective multicenter randomized controlled trial including 776 randomized patients was performed between 2018 and 2021. Patients with at least two good quality blastocysts on Day 5 were allocated by a computer randomization program in a proportion of 1:1 into either the control group, whereby single blastocysts were selected for transfer by morphology alone, or the intervention group whereby final selection was decided by a commercially available time-lapse model. The embryologists at the time of blastocyst morphological scoring were blinded to which study group the patients would be randomized, and the physician and patients were blind to which group they were allocated until after the primary outcome was known. The primary outcome was number of ongoing pregnancies in the two groups. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS From 10 Nordic IVF clinics, 776 patients with a minimum of two good quality blastocysts on Day 5 (D5) were randomized into one of the two study groups. A commercial time-lapse model decided the final selection of blastocysts for 387 patients in the intervention (time-lapse) group, and blastocysts with the highest morphological score were transferred for 389 patients in the control group. Only single embryo transfers in fresh cycles were performed. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE In the full analysis set, the ongoing pregnancy rate for the time-lapse group was 47.4% (175/369) and 48.1% (181/376) in the control group. No statistically significant difference was found between the two groups: mean difference -0.7% (95% CI -8.2, 6.7, P = 0.90). Pregnancy rate (60.2% versus 59.0%, mean difference 1.1%, 95% CI -6.2, 8.4, P = 0.81) and early pregnancy loss (21.2% versus 18.5%, mean difference 2.7%, 95% CI -5.2, 10.6, P = 0.55) were the same for the time-lapse and the control group. Subgroup analyses showed that patient and treatment characteristics did not significantly affect the commercial time-lapse model D5 performance. In the time-lapse group, the choice of best blastocyst changed on 42% of occasions (154/369, 95% CI 36.9, 47.2) after the algorithm was applied, and this rate was similar for most treatment clinics. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION During 2020, the patient recruitment rate slowed down at participating clinics owing to coronavirus disease-19 restrictions, so the target sample size was not achieved as planned and it was decided to stop the trial prematurely. The study only investigated embryo selection at the blastocyst stage on D5 in fresh IVF transfer cycles. In addition, only blastocysts of good morphological quality were considered for transfer, limiting the number of embryos for selection in both groups: also, it could be argued that this manual preselection of blastocysts limits the theoretical selection power of time-lapse, as well as restricting the results mainly to a good prognosis patient group. Most patients were aimed for blastocyst stage transfer when a minimum of five zygotes were available for extended culture. Finally, the primary clinical outcome evaluated was pregnancy to only 6-8 weeks. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The study suggests that time-lapse selection with a commercially available time-lapse model does not increase chance of ongoing pregnancy after single blastocyst transfer on Day 5 compared to morphology alone. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) The study was financed by a grant from the Swedish state under the ALF-agreement between the Swedish government and the county councils (ALFGBG-723141). Vitrolife supported the study with embryo culture dishes and culture media. During the study period, T.H. changed his employment from Livio AB to Vitrolife AB. All other authors have no conflicts of interests to disclose. DATE OF FIRST PATIENT'S ENROLMENT 11 June 2018.
|
|
| 7. |
- Ahlström, A., et al.
(författare)
-
No major differences in perinatal and maternal outcomes between uninterrupted embryo culture in time-lapse system and conventional embryo culture
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Human Reproduction. - : Oxford University Press. - 0268-1161 .- 1460-2350. ; 38:12, s. 2400-2411
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- STUDY QUESTION: Is embryo culture in a closed time-lapse system associated with any differences in perinatal and maternal outcomes in comparison to conventional culture and spontaneous conception?SUMMARY ANSWER: There were no significant differences between time-lapse and conventional embryo culture in preterm birth (PTB, <37 weeks), low birth weight (LBW, >2500 g) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy for singleton deliveries, the primary outcomes of this study.WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Evidence from prospective trials evaluating the safety of time-lapse incubation for clinical use show similar embryo development rates, implantation rates, and ongoing pregnancy and live birth rates when compared to conventional incubation. Few studies have investigated if uninterrupted culture can alter risks of adverse perinatal outcomes presently associated with IVF when compared to conventional culture and spontaneous conceptions.STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This study is a Swedish population-based retrospective registry study, including 7379 singleton deliveries after fresh embryo transfer between 2013 and 2018 from selected IVF clinics. Perinatal outcomes of singletons born from time-lapse-cultured embryos were compared to singletons from embryos cultured in conventional incubators and 71 300 singletons from spontaneous conceptions. Main perinatal outcomes included PTB and LBW. Main maternal outcomes included hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (pregnancy hypertension and preeclampsia).PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: From nine IVF clinics, 2683 singletons born after fresh embryo transfer in a time-lapse system were compared to 4696 singletons born after culture in a conventional incubator and 71 300 singletons born after spontaneous conception matched for year of birth, parity, and maternal age. Patient and treatment characteristics from IVF deliveries were cross-linked with the Swedish Medical Birth Register, Register of Birth Defects, National Patient Register and Statistics Sweden. Children born after sperm and oocyte donation cycles and after Preimplantation Genetic testing cycles were excluded. Odds ratio (OR) and adjusted OR were calculated, adjusting for relevant confounders.MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: In the adjusted analyses, no significant differences were found for risk of PTB (adjusted OR 1.11, 95% CI 0.87-1.41) and LBW (adjusted OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.66-1.14) or hypertensive disorders of pregnancy; preeclampsia and hypertension (adjusted OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.67-1.45 and adjusted OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.62-1.53, respectively) between time-lapse and conventional incubation systems. A significantly increased risk of PTB (adjusted OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.08-1.60) and LBW (adjusted OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08-1.72) was found for singletons born after time-lapse incubation compared to singletons born after spontaneous conceptions. In addition, a lower risk for pregnancy hypertension (adjusted OR 0.72 95% CI 0.53-0.99) but no significant difference for preeclampsia (adjusted OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.68-1.12) was found compared to spontaneous conceptions. Subgroup analyses showed that some risks were related to the day of embryo transfer, with more adverse outcomes after blastocyst transfer in comparison to cleavage stage transfer.LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: This study is retrospective in design and different clinical strategies may have been used to select specific patient groups for time-lapse versus conventional incubation. The number of patients is limited and larger datasets are required to obtain more precise estimates and adjust for possible effect of additional embryo culture variables.WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Embryo culture in time-lapse systems is not associated with major differences in perinatal and maternal outcomes, compared to conventional embryo culture, suggesting that this technology is an acceptable alternative for embryo incubation.
|
|
| 8. |
|
|
| 9. |
- Jacquet, Jennifer, et al.
(författare)
-
Support US OCTOPUS Act to keep octopuses wild.
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Science (New York, N.Y.). - 1095-9203. ; 385:6710, s. 721-722
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Commercial octopus farming is incapable of meeting welfare requirements, unsustainable, and unnecessary for sustenance. Although no commercial octopus farms currently exist, a Spanish seafood company plans to build one in the Canary Islands for Octopus vulgaris. In March, the US state of Washington banned octopus farming. Similar legislation has been introduced in California and Hawai‘i . Now, the federal government is proposing action. The US Congress should pass the OCTOPUS Act, a federal law that would prohibit commercial octopus aquaculture in the United States and the import of commercially farmed octopus or octopus products.
|
|
| 10. |
|
|
