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Adapting to an Uncertain Climate -Lessons from Practice
- 2014
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Samlingsverk (redaktörskap) (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Benefits policy developers and advisors, practitioners, researchers and others interested in dealing with uncertainty in climate adaptation decision-making Offers case studies from different geographical regions and a wide variety of real-life adaptation situations Presents a new support framework for climate change adaptation decisions under uncertainty Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring these new approaches is also a challenge for those involved in climate research and development of adaptation policy. Targeted specifically at policy developers and advisors, practitioners, climate knowledge brokers, researchers and interested adaptation decision-makers, this book differs from other titles addressing climate change adaptation and uncertainty by using real life cases to address distinct and pertinent uncertainties in actual adaptation situations. The editors introduce the role of uncertainties in informing adaptation decisions, showing why and how this is important, and why decisions do not have to wait until uncertainties are resolved. They go on to explore uncertainty assessments supporting decision-making on climate change adaptation, with sections on variability, uncertainty typology, climate change and projection of risks. A discussion of national adaptation planning follows with sections on sources and levels of uncertainty, communication of uncertainty and guidance for adaptation planning under uncertainty. The book provides a dozen real-life examples of adaptation decision making in the form of case studies: · Studies on water supply management in Portugal, England and Wales and Hungary · Studies on flooding, including flood risk in Ireland, coastal flooding and erosion in Southwest France and flood management in New Zealand’s Hutt River region · Studies on transport and utilities, including the Austrian Federal railway system and public transit in Dresden, and Québec hydro-electric power · A report examining communication of large numbers of climate scenarios in Dutch climate adaptation workshops The concluding section outlines a new support framework for adaptation decisions under uncertainty, as well as guidance, recommendations and decision support for readers to apply in their own work. In the spirit of the newly adopted EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, the book aims - as does the CIRCLE-2 project from which it emanates - to assist informed decision-making, and to provide added value through increased knowledge sharing.
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| 2. |
- Saretto, Francesco, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain
- 2024
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Ingår i: Atmosphere. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4433. ; 15:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mediterranean water-stressed areas face significant challenges from higher temperatures and increasingly severe droughts. We assess the effect of climate change on rainfed barley production in the aridity-prone province of Almería, Spain, using the FAO AquaCrop model. We focus on rainfed barley growth by the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100) time periods, using three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Using the paired t-test, Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, and relative Root Mean Squared Error, we verified AquaCrop’s ability to capture local multi-year trends (9 or more years) using standard barley crop parameters, without local recalibration. Starting with a reference Initial Soil Water Content (ISWC), different soil water contents within barley rooting depth were modelled to account for decreases in soil water availability. We then evaluated the efficiency of different climate adaptation strategies: irrigation, mulching, and changing sowing dates. We show average yield changes of +14% to −44.8% (mid-century) and +12% to −55.1% (end-century), with ISWC being the main factor determining yields. Irrigation increases yields by 21.1%, utilizing just 3% of Almería’s superficial water resources. Mulches improve irrigated yield performances by 6.9% while reducing irrigation needs by 40%. Changing sowing dates does not consistently improve yields. We demonstrate that regardless of the scenario used, climate adaptation of field barley production in Almería should prioritize limiting soil water loss by combining irrigation with mulching. This would enable farmers in Almería’s northern communities to maintain their livelihoods, reducing the province’s reliance on horticulture while continuing to contribute to food security goals.
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