| 1. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 2. |
- Gschwendtner, Dda, et al.
(författare)
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The AWAKE Run 2 Programme and Beyond
- 2022
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Ingår i: Symmetry. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-8994. ; 14:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plasma wakefield acceleration is a promising technology to reduce the size of particle accelerators. The use of high energy protons to drive wakefields in plasma has been demonstrated during Run 1 of the AWAKE programme at CERN. Protons of energy 400 GeV drove wakefields that accelerated electrons to 2 GeV in under 10 m of plasma. The AWAKE collaboration is now embarking on Run 2 with the main aims to demonstrate stable accelerating gradients of 0.5-1 GV/m, preserve emittance of the electron bunches during acceleration and develop plasma sources scalable to 100s of metres and beyond. By the end of Run 2, the AWAKE scheme should be able to provide electron beams for particle physics experiments and several possible experiments have already been evaluated. This article summarises the programme of AWAKE Run 2 and how it will be achieved as well as the possible application of the AWAKE scheme to novel particle physics experiments.
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| 3. |
- Hayden, Brian, et al.
(författare)
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The HST See Change Program. I. Survey Design, Pipeline, and Supernova Discoveries
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 912:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The See Change survey was designed to make z > 1 cosmological measurements by efficiently discovering high-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and improving cluster mass measurements through weak lensing. This survey observed twelve galaxy clusters with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) spanning the redshift range z = 1.13-1.75, discovering 57 likely transients and 27 likely SNe Ia at z similar to 0.8-2.3. As in similar previous surveys, this proved to be a highly efficient use of HST for supernova observations; the See Change survey additionally tested the feasibility of maintaining, or further increasing, the efficiency at yet higher redshifts, where we have less detailed information on the expected cluster masses and star formation rates. We find that the resulting number of SNe Ia per orbit is a factor of similar to 8 higher than for a field search, and 45% of our orbits contained an active SN Ia within 22 rest-frame days of peak, with one of the clusters by itself yielding 6 of the SNe Ia. We present the survey design, pipeline, and supernova discoveries. Novel features include fully blinded supernova searches, the first random forest candidate classifier for undersampled IR data (with a 50% detection threshold within 0.05 mag of human searchers), real-time forward-modeling photometry of candidates, and semi-automated photometric classifications and follow-up forecasts. We also describe the spectroscopic follow-up, instrumental in measuring host galaxy redshifts. The cosmology analysis of our sample will be presented in a companion paper.
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| 4. |
- Janzén, David, et al.
(författare)
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Structural Identifiability in mixed-effects models
- 2014
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Ingår i: In proceedings of PKUK 2014.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background: Structural identifiability concerns whether the parameters in a postulated model structure can be uniquely determined given the input and output functions to and from that model. What this means in practice is that if a model is structurally unidentifiable, the model structure itself allows a subset (or all) of the model parameters to vary while the model output remains unchanged. Conclusions drawn from such a model are potentially unreliable. For instance, if the estimated value of Emax is of interest, but if Emax is a member of the subset of unidentifiable parameters as a result of the model structure, the estimated value of Emax is effectively meaningless. For deterministic models, there exist several different structural identifiability analysis techniques for both linear and nonlinear systems. However, little has been done on the identifiability analysis of models having a mixed-effects framework. Here the main challenge comes from the fact that, apart from having a deterministic part describing the typical individual, there is also an additional statistical sub-model describing the random effects for the parameters and the covariance between them. In population modelling, these parameters represent the variability in the population. Since estimation of the variability is often one of the main goals in population modelling, it is important to determine whether these parameters can be uniquely determined or otherwise. This motivates the need to extend the concept of structural identifiability for deterministic models to non-deterministic models such as mixed-effects models.Aim: To develop ways of analysing structural identifiability in mixed-effects models.Methods: In statistics, and in particular statistical inference, there exist problems which are similar to those encountered in parameter estimation for mixed-effect models. In this work, we make use of these similarities and use these relevant relations to study structural identifiability in mixed-effects models.Results: Some initial results from a structural identifiability analysis on a particular mixed-effects model structure are presented. This work is funded through the Marie Curie FP7 People ITN European Industrial Doctorate (EID) project, IMPACT (Innovative Modelling for Pharmacological Advances through Collaborative Training).
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| 5. |
- Luo, Yiqi, et al.
(författare)
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Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models
- 2016
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236. ; 30:1, s. 40-56
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.
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| 6. |
- Schalekamp-Timmermans, Sarah, et al.
(författare)
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Fetal sex-specific differences in gestational age at delivery in pre-eclampsia : A meta-analysis
- 2017
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 46:2, s. 632-642
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a major pregnancy disorder complicating up to 8% of pregnancies. Increasing evidence indicates a sex-specific interplay between the mother, placenta and fetus. This may lead to different adaptive mechanisms during pregnancy. Methods: We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis to determine associations of fetal sex and PE, with specific focus on gestational age at delivery in PE. This was done on 219 575 independent live-born singleton pregnancies, with a gestational age at birth between 22.0 and 43.0 weeks of gestation, from 11 studies participating in a worldwide consortium of international research groups focusing on pregnancy. Results: Of the women, 9033 (4.1%) experienced PE in their pregnancy and 48.8% of the fetuses were feMale versus 51.2% Male. No differences in the feMale/Male distribution were observed with respect to term PE (delivered > 37 weeks). Preterm PE (delivered < 37 weeks) was slightly more prevalent among pregnancies with a feMale fetus than in pregnancies with a Male fetus [odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.21]. Very preterm PE (delivered < 34 weeks) was even more prevalent among pregnancies with a feMale fetus as compared with pregnancies with a Male fetus (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.17-1.59). Conclusions: Sexual dimorphic differences in the occurrence of PE exist, with preterm PE being more prevalent among pregnancies with a feMale fetus as compared with pregnancies with a Male fetus and with no differences with respect to term PE.
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| 7. |
- Shaffer, Carrie L., et al.
(författare)
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Peptidomimetic Small Molecules Disrupt Type IV Secretion System Activity in Diverse Bacterial Pathogens
- 2016
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Ingår i: mBio. - 2161-2129 .- 2150-7511. ; 7:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bacteria utilize complex type IV secretion systems (T4SSs) to translocate diverse effector proteins or DNA into target cells. Despite the importance of T4SSs in bacterial pathogenesis, the mechanism by which these translocation machineries deliver cargo across the bacterial envelope remains poorly understood, and very few studies have investigated the use of synthetic molecules to disrupt T4SS-mediated transport. Here, we describe two synthetic small molecules (C10 and KSK85) that disrupt T4SS-dependent processes in multiple bacterial pathogens. Helicobacter pylori exploits a pilus appendage associated with the cag T4SS to inject an oncogenic effector protein (CagA) and peptidoglycan into gastric epithelial cells. In H. pylori, KSK85 impedes biogenesis of the pilus appendage associated with the cag T4SS, while C10 disrupts cag T4SS activity without perturbing pilus assembly. In addition to the effects in H. pylori, we demonstrate that these compounds disrupt interbacterial DNA transfer by conjugative T4SSs in Escherichia coli and impede vir T4SS-mediated DNA delivery by Agrobacterium tumefaciens in a plant model of infection. Of note, C10 effectively disarmed dissemination of a derepressed IncF plasmid into a recipient bacterial population, thus demonstrating the potential of these compounds in mitigating the spread of antibiotic resistance determinants driven by conjugation. To our knowledge, this study is the first report of synthetic small molecules that impair delivery of both effector protein and DNA cargos by diverse T4SSs. IMPORTANCE Many human and plant pathogens utilize complex nanomachines called type IV secretion systems (T4SSs) to transport proteins and DNA to target cells. In addition to delivery of harmful effector proteins into target cells, T4SSs can disseminate genetic determinants that confer antibiotic resistance among bacterial populations. In this study, we sought to identify compounds that disrupt T4SS-mediated processes. Using the human gastric pathogen H. pylori as a model system, we identified and characterized two small molecules that prevent transfer of an oncogenic effector protein to host cells. We discovered that these small molecules also prevented the spread of antibiotic resistance plasmids in E. coli populations and diminished the transfer of tumor-inducing DNA from the plant pathogen A. tumefaciens to target cells. Thus, these compounds are versatile molecular tools that can be used to study and disarm these important bacterial machines.
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| 8. |
- Thompson, Robin N., et al.
(författare)
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Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies
- 2020
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 287:1932
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
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| 9. |
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