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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10, s. E1332-E1345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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- Gregson, J., et al.
(författare)
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Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism
- 2019
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Ingår i: JAMA Cardiology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0965-2590 .- 2380-6583 .- 2380-6591. ; 4:2, s. 163-173
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). OBJECTIVE To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CND], 25131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS Of the 731728 participants from the ERFC. 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk.
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- Jonkers, Y. M. H., et al.
(författare)
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DNA copy number status is a powerful predictor of poor survival in endocrine pancreatic tumor patients
- 2007
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Ingår i: Endocrine-Related Cancer. - 1351-0088 .- 1479-6821. ; 14:3, s. 769-779
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The clinical behavior of endocrine pancreatic tumors (EPTs) is difficult to predict in the absence of metastases or invasion to adjacent organs. Several markers have been indicated as potential predictors of metastatic disease, such as tumor size 2 cm, Ki67 proliferative index 2%, cytokeratin (CK) 19 status, and recently in insulinomas, chromosomal instability (CIN). The goal of this study was to evaluate the value of these markers, and in particular of the CIN, to predict tumor recurrence or progression and tumor-specific death, using a series of 47 insulinomas and 24 non-insulinoma EPTs. From these EPT cases, a genomic profile has been generated and follow-up data have been obtained. The proliferative index has been determined in 68 tumors and a CK19 expression pattern in 50 tumors. Results are statistically analyzed using Kaplan–Meier plots and the log-rank statistic. General CIN, as well as specific chromosomal alterations such as 3p and 6q loss and 12q gain, turned out to be the most powerful indicators for poor tumor-free survival (P0.0004) and tumor-specific death (P0.0113) in insulinomas. The CIN, chromosome 7q gain, and a proliferative index 2% were reliable in predicting a poor tumor-free survival in non-insulinoma EPTs (P0.0181, whereas CK19 expression was the most optimal predictor of tumor-specific death in these tumors. In conclusion, DNA copy number status is the most sensitive and efficient marker of adverse clinical outcome in insulinomas and of potential interest in non-insulinoma EPTs. As a consequence, this marker should be considered as a prognosticator to improve clinical diagnosis, most practically as a simple multi-target test.
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- Jonkers, Y. M. H., et al.
(författare)
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Molecular parameters associated with insulinoma progression : chromosomal instability versus p53 and CK19 status
- 2006
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Ingår i: Cytogenetic and Genome Research. - : S. Karger AG. - 1424-8581 .- 1424-859X. ; 115:3-4, s. 289-297
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Insulinomas represent the predominant syndromic subtype of endocrine pancreatic tumors (EPTs). Their metastatic potential cannot be predicted reliably using histopathological criteria. In the past few years, several attempts have been made to identify prognostic markers, among them TP53 mutations and immunostaining of p53 and recently cytokeratin 19 (CK19). In a previous study using conventional comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) we have shown that chromosomal instability (CIN) is associated with metastatic disease in insulinomas. It was our aim to evaluate these potential parameters in a single study. For the determination of CIN, we applied CGH to microarrays because it allows a high-resolution detection of DNA copy number changes in comparison with conventional CGH as well as the analysis of chromosomal regions close to the centromeres and telomeres, and at 1pter -> p32, 16p, 19 and 22. These regions are usually excluded from conventional CGH analysis, because they may show DNA gains in negative control hybridizations. Array CGH analysis of 30 insulinomas (15 tumors of benign, eight tumors of uncertain and seven tumors of malignant behavior) revealed that >= 20 chromosomal alterations and >= 6 telomeric losses were the best predictors of malignant progression. A subset of 22 insulinomas was further investigated for TP53 exon 5-8 gene mutations, and p53 and CK19 expression. Only one malignant tumor was shown to harbor an arginine 273 serine mutation and immunopositivity for p53. CK19 immunopositivity was detected in three malignant tumors and one tumor with uncertain behavior. In conclusion, our results indicate that CIN as well as telomeric loss are very powerful indicators for malignant progression in sporadic insulinomas. Our data do not support a critical role for p53 and CK19 as molecular parameters for this purpose.
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