| 1. |
- Brovkin, Victor, et al.
(författare)
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Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 14:8, s. 550-558
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- A synthesis of intervals of rapid climatic change evident in the geological record reveals some of the Earth system processes and tipping points that could lead to similar events in the future. The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate-ecological-social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.
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| 2. |
- Andersen, JH, et al.
(författare)
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Getting the measure of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea: towards improved assessment principles and methods
- 2011
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Ingår i: Biogeochemistry. - 0168-2563. ; 106:2, s. 137-156
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The eutrophication status of the entire Baltic Sea is classified using a multi-metric indicator-based assessment tool. A total of 189 areas are assessed using indicators where information on reference conditions (RefCon), and acceptable deviation (AcDev) from reference condition could be combined with national monitoring data from the period 2001–2006. Most areas (176) are classified as ‘affected by eutrophication’ and only two open water areas and 11 coastal areas are classified as ‘unaffected by eutrophication’. The classification is made by application of the recently developed HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT), which is described in this paper. The use of harmonized assessment principles and the HEAT tool allows for direct comparisons between different parts of the Baltic Sea despite variations in monitoring activities. The impaired status of 176 areas is directly related to nutrient enrichment and elevated loads from upstream catchments. Baltic Sea States have implemented nutrient management strategies since years which have reduced nutrient inputs. However, eutrophication is still a major problem for large parts of the Baltic Sea. The 2007 Baltic Sea Action Plan is projected to further reduce nutrient inputs aiming for a Baltic Sea unaffected by eutrophication by 2021.
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| 3. |
- Buschur, Kristina L., et al.
(författare)
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Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cell Gene Expression Associated with Pulmonary Microvascular Perfusion: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
- 2024
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Ingår i: Annals of the American Thoracic Society. - : NA. - 2329-6933 .- 2325-6621. ; 21:6, s. 884-894
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and emphysema are associated with endothelial damage and altered pulmonary microvascular perfusion. The molecular mechanisms underlying these changes are poorly understood in patients, in part because of the inaccessibility of the pulmonary vasculature. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) interact with the pulmonary endothelium. Objectives: To test the association between gene expression in PBMCs and pulmonary microvascular perfusion in COPD. Methods: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) COPD Study recruited two independent samples of COPD cases and controls with ⩾10 pack-years of smoking history. In both samples, pulmonary microvascular blood flow, pulmonary microvascular blood volume, and mean transit time were assessed on contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and PBMC gene expression was assessed by microarray. Additional replication was performed in a third sample with pulmonary microvascular blood volume measures on contrast-enhanced dual-energy computed tomography. Differential expression analyses were adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, height, weight, smoking status, and pack-years of smoking. Results: The 79 participants in the discovery sample had a mean age of 69 ± 6 years, 44% were female, 25% were non-White, 34% were current smokers, and 66% had COPD. There were large PBMC gene expression signatures associated with pulmonary microvascular perfusion traits, with several replicated in the replication sets with magnetic resonance imaging (n = 47) or dual-energy contrast-enhanced computed tomography (n = 157) measures. Many of the identified genes are involved in inflammatory processes, including nuclear factor-κB and chemokine signaling pathways. Conclusions: PBMC gene expression in nuclear factor-κB, inflammatory, and chemokine signaling pathways was associated with pulmonary microvascular perfusion in COPD, potentially offering new targetable candidates for novel therapies.
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| 4. |
- Mauritsen, Thorsten, et al.
(författare)
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Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. - 1942-2466. ; 11:4, s. 998-1038
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection, and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multilayer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyanobacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end, a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low-level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 over preindustrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly nonlinear global mean response to increasing CO2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two-layer model.
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| 5. |
- Seneviratne, Sonia I., et al.
(författare)
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Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment
- 2013
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 1944-8007 .- 0094-8276. ; 40:19, s. 5212-5217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Global Land-Atmosphere Climate Experiment-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5) is a multimodel experiment investigating the impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 projections. We present here first GLACE-CMIP5 results based on five Earth System Models, focusing on impacts of projected changes in regional soil moisture dryness (mostly increases) on late 21st century climate. Projected soil moisture changes substantially impact climate in several regions in both boreal and austral summer. Strong and consistent effects are found on temperature, especially for extremes (about 1-1.5K for mean temperature and 2-2.5K for extreme daytime temperature). In the Northern Hemisphere, effects on mean and heavy precipitation are also found in most models, but the results are less consistent than for temperature. A direct scaling between soil moisture-induced changes in evaporative cooling and resulting changes in temperature mean and extremes is found in the simulations. In the Mediterranean region, the projected soil moisture changes affect about 25% of the projected changes in extreme temperature.
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