| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Brynielsson, Joel, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Comparison of Strategies for Honeypot Deployment
- 2023
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Ingår i: Proceedings Of The 2023 Ieee/Acm International Conference On Advances In Social Networks Analysis And Mining, Asonam 2023. - : Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). ; , s. 612-619
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent experimental studies have explored how well adaptive honeypot allocation strategies defend against human adversaries. As the experimental subjects were drawn from an unknown, nondescript pool of subjects using Amazon Mechanical Turk, the relevance to defense against real-world adversaries is unclear. The present study reproduces the experiments with more relevant experimental subjects. The results suggest that the strategies considered are less effective against attackers from the current population. In particular, their ability to predict the next attack decreased steadily over time, that is, the human subjects from this population learned to attack less and less predictably.
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| 4. |
- Cohen, Mika, et al.
(författare)
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A complete axiomatization of knowledge and cryptography
- 2007
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Ingår i: 22nd Annual IEEE Symposium On Logic In Computer Science, Proceedings. - 9780769529080 ; , s. 77-86
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The combination offirst-order epistemic logic with formal cryptography offers a potentially powerful framework for security protocol verification. In this paper cryptography is modelled using private constants and one-way computable operations, as in the Applied Pi-calculus. To give the concept of knowledge a computational justification, we propose a generalized Kripke semantics that uses permutations on the underlying domain of cryptographic messages to reflect agents' limited resources. This interpretation links the logic tightly to static equivalence, another important concept of knowledge that has recently been examined in the security protocol literature, and for which there are strong computational soundness results. We exhibit an axiomatization which is sound and complete relative to the underlying theory of terms, and to an omega-rule for quantifiers. Besides standard axioms and rules, the axiomatization includes novel axioms for the interaction between knowledge and cryptography. As protocol examples we use mixes, a Crowds-style protocol, and electronic payments. Funher more, we provide embedding results for BAN and SVO.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Cohen, Mika, et al.
(författare)
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Epistemic logic, Cryptography, Logical Omniscience, BAN Logic
- 2005
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- BAN logic is an epistemic logic for verifying cryptographic protocols. While BAN has been quite successful from a practical point of view, the semantics of the epistemic modality is unclear. Several Kripke semantics have been proposed, but they do not attempt at anything beyond a soundness result. Completeness is prevented by the so called logical omniscience problem: Agents in BAN can draw only feasibly computable consequences of their knowledge, whereas agents in Kripke semantics are not so constrained. To circumvent this problem, we index the epistemic possibility relation of Kripke semantics with a message renaming, relating how cipher texts at the current state correspond to cipher texts at the epistemically possible state. An agent is said to know a property of a message if corresponding messages at epistemically possible states satisfy that property. We obtain completeness with respect to message passing systems, and decidability, by transferring canonical model and filtration constructions from Kripke semantics.
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| 7. |
- Cohen, Mika, et al.
(författare)
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Logical Omniscience in the Semantics of BAN Logics
- 2005
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- BAN logic is an epistemic logic for verification of cryptographic protocols. A number of semantics have been proposed for BAN logic, but none of them capture the intended meaning of the epistemic modality in a satisfactory way. This is due to the so-called logical omniscience problem : Agents are ”ideal reasoners” in existing semantics, while agents in BAN logic have only limited cryptographic reasoning powers. Logical omniscience is unavoidable in Kripke semantics, the standard semantical framework in epistemic logic. Our proposal is to generalize the epistemic accessibility relation of Kripke semantics so that it changes not only the current execution point, but also the currently predicated message. When nstantiated on message passing systems, the semantics validates BAN logic. It makes agents introspective (”self-aware”) of their own knowledge and of their own actions of sending, receiving and extracting.
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| 8. |
- Cohen, Mika, 1971-
(författare)
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Logics of Knowledge and Cryptography : Completeness and Expressiveness
- 2007
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- An understanding of cryptographic protocols requires that we examine the knowledge of protocol participants and adversaries: When a participant receives a message, does she know who sent it? Does she know that the message is fresh, and not merely a replay of some old message? Does a network spy know who is talking to whom? This thesis studies logics of knowledge and cryptography. Specifically, the thesis addresses the problem of how to make the concept of knowledge reflect feasible computability within a Kripke-style semantics. The main contributions are as follows. 1. A generalized Kripke semantics for first-order epistemic logic and cryptography, where the later is modeled using private constants and arbitrary cryptographic operations, as in the Applied Pi-calculus. 2. An axiomatization of first-order epistemic logic which is sound and complete relative to an underlying theory of cryptographic terms, and to an omega-rule for quantifiers. Besides standard axioms and rules from first-order epistemic logic, the axiomatization includes some novel axioms for the interaction between knowledge and cryptography. 3. Epistemic characterizations of static equivalence and Dolev-Yao message deduction. 4. A generalization of Kripke semantics for propositional epistemic logic and symmetric cryptography. 5. Decidability, soundness and completeness for propositional BAN-like logics with respect to message passing systems. Completeness and decidability are generalised to logics induced from an arbitrary base of protocol specific assumptions. 6. An epistemic definition of message deduction. The definition lies between weaker and stronger versions of Dolev-Yao deduction, and coincides with weaker Dolev-Yao regarding all atomic messages. For composite messages, the definition withstands a well-known counterexample to Dolev-Yao deduction. 7. Protocol examples using mixes, a Crowds style protocol, and electronic payments.
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| 9. |
- Cohen, Mika
(författare)
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Simulation preorder semantics for traceability relations in enterprise architecture
- 2014
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Ingår i: 7th IFIP WG 8.1 Working Conference on the Practice of Enterprise Modeling, PoEM 2014. - Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg. - 9783662455005 - 9783662455012 ; , s. 103-117
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The paper proposes a formal semantics for traceability relations in enterprise architecture. The proposed semantics requires that traceability relations should be simulation preorders, a requirement on abstraction relations widely used in program verification. The effectiveness of the proposed semantics is illustrated on a well-known enterprise architecture model from the military domain.
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| 10. |
- Franke, Ulrik, et al.
(författare)
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What can we learn from enterprise architecture models? : An experiment comparing models and documents for capability development
- 2018
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Ingår i: Software and Systems Modeling. - : Springer. - 1619-1366 .- 1619-1374. ; 17:2, s. 695-711
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Enterprise architecture (EA) has been established as a discipline to cope with the complex interactions of business operations and technology. Models, i.e., formal descriptions in terms of diagrams and views, are at the heart of the approach. Though it is widely thought that such architecture models can contribute to improved understanding and decision making, this proposition has not rigorously been tested. This article describes an experiment conducted with a real EA model and corresponding real traditional documents, investigating whether the model or the documents lead to better and faster understanding. Understanding is interesting to study, as it is a prerequisite to other EA uses. The subjects (N = 98) were officer cadets, and the experiment was carried out using a comprehensive description of military Close Air Support capability either (1) in the form of a MODAF model or (2) in the form of traditional documents. Based on the results, the model seems to lead to better, though not faster, understanding.
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