| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Thomas, HS, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2019
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 5. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 6. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Search for neutrino-induced particle showers with IceCube-40
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 89:10, s. 102001-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the search for neutrino-induced particle showers, so-called cascades, in the IceCube-40 detector. The data for this search were collected between April 2008 and May 2009 when the first 40 IceCube strings were deployed and operational. Three complementary searches were performed, each optimized for different energy regimes. The analysis with the lowest energy threshold (2 TeV) targeted atmospheric neutrinos. A total of 67 events were found, consistent with the expectation of 41 atmospheric muons and 30 atmospheric neutrino events. The two other analyses targeted a harder, astrophysical neutrino flux. The analysis with an intermediate threshold of 25 TeV leads to the observation of 14 cascadelike events, again consistent with the prediction of 3.0 atmospheric neutrino and 7.7 atmospheric muon events. We hence set an upper limit of E-2 Phi(lim) <= 7.46 x 10(-8) GeV sr(-1) s(-1) cm(-2) (90% C.L.) on the diffuse flux from astrophysical neutrinos of all neutrino flavors, applicable to the energy range 25 TeV to 5 PeV, assuming an E-nu(-2) spectrum and a neutrino flavor ratio of 1: 1: 1 at the Earth. The third analysis utilized a larger and optimized sample of atmospheric muon background simulation, leading to a higher energy threshold of 100 TeV. Three events were found over a background prediction of 0.04 atmospheric muon events and 0.21 events from the flux of conventional and prompt atmospheric neutrinos. Including systematic errors this corresponds to a 2.7 sigma excess with respect to the background-only hypothesis. Our observation of neutrino event candidates above 100 TeV complements IceCube's recently observed evidence for high-energy astrophysical neutrinos.
|
|
| 7. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Energy reconstruction methods in the IceCube neutrino telescope
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Journal of Instrumentation. - 1748-0221 .- 1748-0221. ; 9, s. P03009-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Accurate measurement of neutrino energies is essential to many of the scientific goals of large-volume neutrino telescopes. The fundamental observable in such detectors is the Cherenkov light produced by the transit through a medium of charged particles created in neutrino interactions. The amount of light emitted is proportional to the deposited energy, which is approximately equal to the neutrino energy for v(e) and v(mu) charged-current interactions and can be used to set a lower bound on neutrino energies and to measure neutrino spectra statistically in other channels. Here we describe methods and performance of reconstructing charged-particle energies and topologies from the observed Cherenkov light yield, including techniques to measure the energies of uncontained muon tracks, achieving average uncertainties in electromagnetic-equivalent deposited energy of similar to 15% above 10 TeV.
|
|
| 8. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Search for a diffuse flux of astrophysical muon neutrinos with the IceCube 59-string configuration
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 89:6, s. 062007-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A search for high-energy neutrinos was performed using data collected by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory from May 2009 to May 2010, when the array was running in its 59-string configuration. The data sample was optimized to contain muon neutrino induced events with a background contamination of atmospheric muons of less than 1%. These data, which are dominated by atmospheric neutrinos, are analyzed with a global likelihood fit to search for possible contributions of prompt atmospheric and astrophysical neutrinos, neither of which have yet been identified. Such signals are expected to follow a harder energy spectrum than conventional atmospheric neutrinos. In addition, the zenith angle distribution differs for astrophysical and atmospheric signals. A global fit of the reconstructed energies and directions of observed events is performed, including possible neutrino flux contributions for an astrophysical signal and atmospheric backgrounds as well as systematic uncertainties of the experiment and theoretical predictions. The best fit yields an astrophysical signal flux for nu(mu) + (nu) over bar (mu) of E-2. Phi(E) = 0.25 x 10(-8) GeV cm(-2) s(-1) sr(-1), and a zero prompt component. Although the sensitivity of this analysis for astrophysical neutrinos surpasses the Waxman and Bahcall upper bound, the experimental limit at 90% confidence level is a factor of 1.5 above at a flux of E-2 . Phi(E) = 1.44 x 10(-8) GeV cm(-2) s(-1) sr(-1).
|
|
| 9. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Search for non-relativistic magnetic monopoles with IceCube
- 2014
-
Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 74:7, s. 2938-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The IceCube Neutrino Observatory is a large Cherenkov detector instrumenting of Antarctic ice. The detector can be used to search for signatures of particle physics beyond the Standard Model. Here, we describe the search for non-relativistic, magnetic monopoles as remnants of the Grand Unified Theory (GUT) era shortly after the Big Bang. Depending on the underlying gauge group these monopoles may catalyze the decay of nucleons via the Rubakov-Callan effect with a cross section suggested to be in the range of to . In IceCube, the Cherenkov light from nucleon decays along the monopole trajectory would produce a characteristic hit pattern. This paper presents the results of an analysis of first data taken from May 2011 until May 2012 with a dedicated slow-particle trigger for DeepCore, a subdetector of IceCube. A second analysis provides better sensitivity for the brightest non-relativistic monopoles using data taken from May 2009 until May 2010. In both analyses no monopole signal was observed. For catalysis cross sections of the flux of non-relativistic GUT monopoles is constrained up to a level of at a 90 % confidence level, which is three orders of magnitude below the Parker bound. The limits assume a dominant decay of the proton into a positron and a neutral pion. These results improve the current best experimental limits by one to two orders of magnitude, for a wide range of assumed speeds and catalysis cross sections.
|
|
| 10. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
-
The IceProd framework : Distributed data processing for the IceCube neutrino observatory
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Journal of Parallel and Distributed Computing. - : Elsevier BV. - 0743-7315 .- 1096-0848. ; 75, s. 198-211
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IceCube is a one-gigaton instrument located at the geographic South Pole, designed to detect cosmic neutrinos, identify the particle nature of dark matter, and study high-energy neutrinos themselves. Simulation of the IceCube detector and processing of data require a significant amount of computational resources. This paper presents the first detailed description of IceProd, a lightweight distributed management system designed to meet these requirements. It is driven by a central database in order to manage mass production of simulations and analysis of data produced by the IceCube detector. IceProd runs as a separate layer on top of other middleware and can take advantage of a variety of computing resources, including grids and batch systems such as CREAM, HTCondor, and PBS. This is accomplished by a set of dedicated daemons that process job submission in a coordinated fashion through the use of middleware plugins that serve to abstract the details of job submission and job management from the framework. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
|
|
