| 1. |
- Chang, Kuang Yu, et al.
(författare)
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Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013. ; 29:15, s. 4298-4312
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH4 source, estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH4 year−1) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.
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| 2. |
- Collier, Nathan, et al.
(författare)
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A continuation multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm
- 2015
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Ingår i: BIT Numerical Mathematics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0006-3835 .- 1572-9125. ; 55:2, s. 399-432
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We propose a novel Continuation Multi Level Monte Carlo (CMLMC) algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic models. The CMLMC algorithm solves the given approximation problem for a sequence of decreasing tolerances, ending when the required error tolerance is satisfied. CMLMC assumes discretization hierarchies that are defined a priori for each level and are geometrically refined across levels. The actual choice of computational work across levels is based on parametric models for the average cost per sample and the corresponding variance and weak error. These parameters are calibrated using Bayesian estimation, taking particular notice of the deepest levels of the discretization hierarchy, where only few realizations are available to produce the estimates. The resulting CMLMC estimator exhibits a non-trivial splitting between bias and statistical contributions. We also show the asymptotic normality of the statistical error in the MLMC estimator and justify in this way our error estimate that allows prescribing both required accuracy and confidence in the final result. Numerical results substantiate the above results and illustrate the corresponding computational savings in examples that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients.
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| 3. |
- Delrez, Laetitia, et al.
(författare)
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Transit detection of the long-period volatile-rich super-Earth nu(2) Lupi d with CHEOPS
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Astronomy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3366. ; :5, s. 775-787
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Exoplanets transiting bright nearby stars are key objects for advancing our knowledge of planetary formation and evolution. The wealth of photons from the host star gives detailed access to the atmospheric, interior and orbital properties of the planetary companions. nu(2) Lupi (HD 136352) is a naked-eye (V = 5.78) Sun-like star that was discovered to host three low-mass planets with orbital periods of 11.6, 27.6 and 107.6 d via radial-velocity monitoring(1). The two inner planets (b and c) were recently found to transit(2), prompting a photometric follow-up by the brand new Characterising Exoplanets Satellite (CHEOPS). Here, we report that the outer planet d is also transiting, and measure its radius and mass to be 2.56 +/- 0.09 R-circle plus and 8.82 +/- 0.94 M-circle plus, respectively. With its bright Sun-like star, long period and mild irradiation (similar to 5.7 times the irradiation of Earth), nu(2) Lupi d unlocks a completely new region in the parameter space of exoplanets amenable to detailed characterization. We refine the properties of all three planets: planet b probably has a rocky mostly dry composition, while planets c and d seem to have retained small hydrogen-helium envelopes and a possibly large water fraction. This diversity of planetary compositions makes the nu(2) Lupi system an excellent laboratory for testing formation and evolution models of low-mass planets.
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| 4. |
- Niemi, Antti, et al.
(författare)
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On the shape optimization of flapping wings and their performance analysis
- 2014
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Ingår i: Aerospace Science and Technology. - : Elsevier. - 1270-9638 .- 1626-3219. ; , s. 274-292
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The present work is concerned with the shape optimization of flapping wings in forward flight. The analysis is performed by combining a gradient-based optimizer with the unsteady vortex lattice method (UVLM). We describe the UVLM simulation procedure and provide the first methodology to select properly the mesh and time-step sizes to achieve invariant UVLM simulation results under mesh refinement. Our objective is to identify a set of optimized shapes that maximize the propulsive efficiency, defined as the ratio of the propulsive power over the aerodynamic power, under lift, thrust, and area constraints. Several parameters affecting flight performance are investigated and their impact is described. These include the wingʼs aspect ratio, camber line, and curvature of the leading and trailing edges. This study provides guidance for shape design of engineered flying systems.
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