| 1. |
- Banks, H. T., et al.
(författare)
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Parameter estimation for an allometric food web model
- 2017
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Ingår i: International journal of pure and applied mathematics. - : Academic Publications. - 1311-8080 .- 1314-3395. ; 114:1, s. 143-160
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The application of mechanistic models to natural systems is of interest to ecological researchers. We use the mechanistic Allometric Trophic Network (ATN) model, whichis well-studied for controlled and theoretical systems, to describe the dynamics of the aphidRhopalosiphum padi in an agricultural field. We diagnose problems that arise in a first attemptat a least squares parameter estimation on this system, including formulation of the modelfor the inverse problem and information content present in the data. We seek to establishwhether the field data, as it is currently collected, can support parameter estimation for theATN model.
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| 2. |
- Binzer, Amrei, et al.
(författare)
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The susceptibility of species to extinctions in model communities
- 2011
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Ingår i: Basic and Applied Ecology. - : Elsevier. - 1439-1791 .- 1618-0089. ; 12:7, s. 590-599
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite the fact that the loss of a species from a community has the potential to cause a dramatic decline in biodiversity, for example through cascades of secondary extinctions, little is known about the factors contributing to the extinction risk of any particular species. Here we expand earlier modeling approaches using a dynamic food-web model that accounts for bottom-up as well as top-down effects. We investigate what factors influence a species’ extinction risk and time to extinction of the non-persistent species. We identified three basic properties that affect a species’ risk of extinction. The highest extinction risk is born by species with (1) low energy input (e.g. high trophic level), (2) susceptibility to the loss of energy pathways (e.g. specialists with few prey species) and (3) dynamic instability (e.g. low Hill exponent and reliance on homogeneous energy channels when feeding on similarly sized prey). Interestingly, and different from field studies, we found that the trophic level and not the body mass of a species influences its extinction risk. On the other hand, body mass is the single most important factor determining the time to extinction of a species, resulting in small species dying first. This suggests that in the field the trophic level might have more influence on the extinction risk than presently recognized.
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| 3. |
- Curtsdotter, Alva, et al.
(författare)
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Ecosystem function in predator-prey food webs : confronting dynamic models with empirical data
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Animal Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0021-8790 .- 1365-2656. ; 88:2, s. 196-210
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most ecosystem functions and related services involve species interactions across trophic levels, for example, pollination and biological pest control. Despite this, our understanding of ecosystem function in multitrophic communities is poor, and research has been limited to either manipulation in small communities or statistical descriptions in larger ones. Recent advances in food web ecology may allow us to overcome the trade-off between mechanistic insight and ecological realism. Molecular tools now simplify the detection of feeding interactions, and trait-based approaches allow the application of dynamic food web models to real ecosystems. We performed the first test of an allometric food web model's ability to replicate temporally nonaggregated abundance data from the field and to provide mechanistic insight into the function of predation. We aimed to reproduce and explore the drivers of the population dynamics of the aphid herbivore Rhopalosiphum padi observed in ten Swedish barley fields. We used a dynamic food web model, taking observed interactions and abundances of predators and alternative prey as input data, allowing us to examine the role of predation in aphid population control. The inverse problem methods were used for simultaneous model fit optimization and model parameterization. The model captured >70% of the variation in aphid abundance in five of ten fields, supporting the model-embodied hypothesis that body size can be an important determinant of predation in the arthropod community. We further demonstrate how in-depth model analysis can disentangle the likely drivers of function, such as the community's abundance and trait composition. Analysing the variability in model performance revealed knowledge gaps, such as the source of episodic aphid mortality, and general method development needs that, if addressed, would further increase model success and enable stronger inference about ecosystem function. The results demonstrate that confronting dynamic food web models with abundance data from the field is a viable approach to evaluate ecological theory and to aid our understanding of function in real ecosystems. However, to realize the full potential of food web models, in ecosystem function research and beyond, trait-based parameterization must be refined and extended to include more traits than body size. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society
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| 4. |
- Curtsdotter, Alva, 1983-
(författare)
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Extinctions in Ecological Communities : direct and indirect effects of perturbation on biodiversity
- 2014
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In the dawning of what may become Earth’s 6th mass extinction the topic of this thesis, understanding extinction processes and what determines the magnitude of species loss, has become only too relevant. The number of known extinctions (~850) during the last centuries translates to extinction rates elevated above the background rate, matching those of previous mass extinction events. The main drivers of these extinctions have been human land use, introduction of exotic species and overexploitation. Under continued anthropogenic pressure and climate change, the current extinction rates are predicted to increase tenfold.Large perturbations, such as the extinction drivers mentioned above, affects species directly, causing a change in their abundance. As species are not isolated, but connected to each other through a multitude of interactions, the change in abundance of one species can in turn affect others. Thus, in addition to the direct effect, a perturbation can affect a species indirectly through the ecological network in which the species is embedded. With this thesis, I wish to contribute to our basic understanding of these indirect effects and the role they play in determining the magnitude of species loss. All the studies included here are so called in silico experiments, using mathematical models to describe ecological communities and computer simulations to observe the response of these communities to perturbation.When a perturbation is severe enough, a species will be driven to extinction. The loss of a species from a system is in itself a large perturbation, and may result in further extinctions, so called secondary extinctions. The traits of the species initially lost, can be a potential predictor of the magnitude of secondary species loss. In Paper I of this thesis, I show that when making such predictions, it is important to incorporate temporally dynamic species interactions and abundances, in order not to underestimate the importance of certain species, such as top predators.I further show that species traits alone are not particularly good predictors of secondary extinction risk (Paper I), but that in combination with community level properties they are (Paper II). Indeed, there seems to be an interaction such that the specific property making a community prone to secondary species loss, depends on what kind of species was lost in the primary extinction. As different types of perturbation put different types of species at risk of (primary) extinction, this means that the specific property making a community prone to secondary species loss, will depend on the type of perturbation the community is subjected to.One of the predicted main drivers of future species extinction is climate change. If the local climate becomes adverse, a species can either migrate to new and better areas or stay and evolve. Both these processes will be important in determining the magnitude of species loss under climate change. However, migration and evolution do not occur in vacuum – the biotic community in which these processes play out may modulate their effect on biodiversity. In paper III, I show that the strength of competition between species modulates the effect of both dispersal and evolution on the magnitude of species loss under climate change. The three-way interaction between interspecific competition, evolution and dispersal, creates a complex pattern of biodiversity responses, in which both evolution and dispersal can either increase or decrease the magnitude of species loss. Thus, when species interactions are incorporated, it is clear that even though migration and evolution may alleviate the impact of climate change for some species, they may indirectly aggravate the situation for others.In Paper III, the aspect of climate change incorporated in the model is an increase in mean annual temperature. But climate change is also predicted to increase environmental variability. Paper IV shows that species-rich communities are more sensitive to high environmental variability than species-poor ones. The smaller population sizes in the species-rich communities increased the extinction risk connected to population fluctuations driven by the variable environment. Hence, systems such as tropical forests and coral reefs are predicted to be particularly sensitive to the increased variability that may follow with climate change.In Paper IV, primary extinctions of primary producers result in extinction cascades of consumer species, when they lose their prey. However, in reality a consumer species might be able to switch to another prey, and such flexibility has both been observed and suggested as a potential rescue mechanism. But what is beneficial for an individual predator in the short-term can become detrimental to the ecological community in the long-term. Paper V shows that consumer flexibility often led to consumers continuously overexploiting their new prey, in the worst case to the point of system collapse. Thus, the suggested rescue mechanism aggravated the effect of initial species loss, rather than ameliorating it.Overall, the research presented here, underscores the importance of including population dynamics and biotic interactions when studying the effects of perturbation on biodiversity. Many of the results are complex, hard to foresee or even counter-intuitive, arising from the indirect effects of the perturbation being translated through the living web of species interactions.
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| 5. |
- Curtsdotter, Alva, et al.
(författare)
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Robustness to secondary extinctions: Comparing trait-based sequential deletions in static and dynamic food webs
- 2011
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Ingår i: Basic and Applied Ecology. - : Elsevier. - 1439-1791 .- 1618-0089. ; 12:7, s. 571-580
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The loss of species from ecological communities can unleash a cascade of secondary extinctions, the risk and extent of which are likely to depend on the traits of the species that are lost from the community. To identify species traits that have the greatest impact on food web robustness to species loss we here subject allometrically scaled, dynamical food web models to several deletion sequences based on species’ connectivity, generality, vulnerability or body mass. Further, to evaluate the relative importance of dynamical to topological effects we compare robustness between dynamical and purely topological models. This comparison reveals that the topological approach overestimates robustness in general and for certain sequences in particular. Top-down directed sequences have no or very low impact on robustness in topological analyses, while the dynamical analysis reveals that they may be as important as high-impact bottom-up directed sequences. Moreover, there are no deletion sequences that result, on average, in no or very few secondary extinctions in the dynamical approach. Instead, the least detrimental sequence in the dynamical approach yields an average robustness similar to the most detrimental (non-basal) deletion sequence in the topological approach. Hence, a topological analysis may lead to erroneous conclusions concerning both the relative and the absolute importance of different species traits for robustness. The dynamical sequential deletion analysis shows that food webs are least robust to the loss of species that have many trophic links or that occupy low trophic levels. In contrast to previous studies we can infer, albeit indirectly, that secondary extinctions were triggered by both bottom-up and top-down cascades.
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| 6. |
- Curtsdotter, Alva, et al.
(författare)
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The interaction between species traits and community properties determine food web resistance to species loss
- 2014
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The ability to identify the ecosystems most vulnerable to species loss is fundamental for the allocation of conservation efforts. With this aim, the traits of keystone species have been investigated, as have the properties defining systems especially sensitive to species loss. However, these two have rarely been investigated in relation to each other. Here we show, that the traits of the species primarily lost act in conjunction with the properties of the food web from which it is lost, in determining the resistance of the system. We find that the extent of bottom-up extinction cascades is determined mainly by traits related to food web topology, while traits related to population dynamics govern the extent of top-down cascades. As different disturbances affect species with different traits, this interaction implies that the characteristics defining a sensitive community depend on the disturbance it is subjected to.
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| 7. |
- Curtsdotter, Alva, et al.
(författare)
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The strength of interspecific competition modulates the eco-evolutionary response to climate change
- 2014
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Climate change is predicted to have major implications for global biodiversity. Dispersal and evolution may become crucial for species survival, as species must either adapt or migrate to track the changing climate. However, migration and evolution do not occur in vacuum – the biotic community in which these processes play out may modulate their effect on biodiversity. Here, we use an eco-evolutionary, spatially explicit, multi-species model that allows us to examine the interactive effects of competition, adaptation and dispersal on species richness in plant communities under global warming. We find that there is a larger decline in global species richness when interspecific competition is strong. Furthermore, there is a three-way interaction between interspecific competition, evolution and dispersal that creates a complex pattern of biodiversity responses, in which both evolution and dispersal can either increase or decrease the magnitude of species loss. This interaction arises for at least two reasons: 1) different levels of dispersal, evolution and competition creates differences in local and global community structure before climate change, and 2) competitive interactions determine whether the benefits of dispersal and/or evolution (climate tracking and adaptation) outweighs the risks (competitive exclusion).
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| 8. |
- Digel, Christoph, et al.
(författare)
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Unravelling the complex structure of forest soil food webs: higher omnivory and more trophic levels
- 2014
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Ingår i: Oikos. - : Wiley / Nordic Ecological Society. - 0030-1299 .- 1600-0706. ; 123:10, s. 1157-1172
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Food web topologies depict the community structure as distributions of feeding interactions across populations. Although the soil ecosystem provides important functions for aboveground ecosystems, data on complex soil food webs is notoriously scarce, most likely due to the difficulty of sampling and characterizing the system. To fill this gap we assembled the complex food webs of 48 forest soil communities. The food webs comprise 89 to 168 taxa and 729 to 3344 feeding interactions. The feeding links were established by combining several molecular methods (stable isotope, fatty acid and molecular gut content analyses) with feeding trials and literature data. First, we addressed whether soil food webs (n = 48) differ significantly from those of other ecosystem types (aquatic and terrestrial aboveground, n = 77) by comparing 22 food web parameters. We found that our soil food webs are characterized by many omnivorous and cannibalistic species, more trophic chains and intraguild-predation motifs than other food webs and high average and maximum trophic levels. Despite this, we also found that soil food webs have a similar connectance as other ecosystems, but interestingly a higher link density and clustering coefficient. These differences in network structure to other ecosystem types may be a result of ecosystem specific constraints on hunting and feeding characteristics of the species that emerge as network parameters at the food-web level. In a second analysis of land-use effects, we found significant but only small differences of soil food web structure between different beech and coniferous forest types, which may be explained by generally strong selection effects of the soil that are independent of human land use. Overall, our study has unravelled some systematic structures of soil food-webs, which extends our mechanistic understanding how environmental characteristics of the soil ecosystem determine patterns at the community level.
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| 9. |
- Gilljam, David, et al.
(författare)
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Adaptive rewiring aggravates the effects of species loss in ecosystems
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2041-1723. ; 6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Loss of one species in an ecosystem can trigger extinctions of other dependent species. For instance, specialist predators will go extinct following the loss of their only prey unless they can change their diet. It has therefore been suggested that an ability of consumers to rewire to novel prey should mitigate the consequences of species loss by reducing the risk of cascading extinction. Using a new modelling approach on natural and computer-generated food webs we find that, on the contrary, rewiring often aggravates the effects of species loss. This is because rewiring can lead to overexploitation of resources, which eventually causes extinction cascades. Such a scenario is particularly likely if prey species cannot escape predation when rare and if predators are efficient in exploiting novel prey. Indeed, rewiring is a two-edged sword; it might be advantageous for individual predators in the short term, yet harmful for long-term system persistence.
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| 10. |
- Kaneryd, Linda, et al.
(författare)
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Species-rich ecosystems are vulnerable to cascading extinctions in an increasingly variable world
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 2045-7758. ; 2:4, s. 858-874
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global warming leads to increased intensity and frequency of weather extremes. Such increased environmental variability might in turn result in increased variation in the demographic rates of interacting species with potentially important consequences for the dynamics of food webs. Using a theoretical approach, we here explore the response of food webs to a highly variable environment.We investigate how species richness and correlation in the responses of species to environmental fluctuations affect the risk of extinction cascades. We find that the risk of extinction cascades increases with increasing species richness, especially when correlation among species is low. Initial extinctions of primary producer species unleash bottom-up extinction cascades, especially in webs with specialist consumers. In this sense, species-rich ecosystems are less robust to increasing levels of environmental variability than species-poor ones. Our study thus suggests that highly speciesrich ecosystems such as coral reefs and tropical rainforests might be particularly vulnerable to increased climate variability.
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