| 1. |
- Cai, Zipan, 1992-
(författare)
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Towards a Scenario-based Spatial Dynamic Modeling for Predicting Urban Land Use Change : Planning Tools and Comparative Analysis
- 2023
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- As global urbanization progresses, cities worldwide are growing in size, which leads to many economic, environmental, and management challenges. Recent advancements in spatial data analysis and algorithmic geography have also led to the development of various urban model-based planning support systems (PSS) for urban planning. These PSSs aim to assist urban decision-makers in understanding urban information and collaborating on planning to address urban development challenges. Advanced urban planning concepts are, however, always multidisciplinary, multi-situational, and continuously evolving. In addition to the development of more advanced urban information and communications technology (ICT) and management, planning concepts that promote urban health and sustainable development are needed to meet residents’ physical, spiritual, and social needs, and promote more sustainable lifestyles. These factors create the need for a more rigorous methodological and theoretical foundation to apply PSS to urban planning at the microscale. A scenario-based spatial dynamic modeling approach is proposed in this thesis to address this research gap, allowing for a more precise matching of local policy scenarios and desired development patterns for practical planning support purposes. Several urban development scenarios and their potential impacts are explored by analyzing future urban land use changes. The establishment of this planning support approach effectively integrates spatial analysis, simulation model, policy revision, and participative planning. First, the thesis examines the rules and correlations underlying land unit transformations resulting from human-land interactions in spatial dynamic models by investigating mechanisms driving changes in urban land use. Second, a series of possible urban development simulations are generated through several case studies that employ a variety of representative cities with different urban contexts as model test sites including Nanjing in China, Stockholm in Sweden, and Chicago in the USA to evaluate their validity and practicality. Socioeconomics, ecological systems, and urban amenities are among the research themes that provide a more realistic and practical view of urban development. Last, visualization of the simulation results and quantitative information analyses and transformation is utilized to arrive at recommendations for revising planning policies and promoting sustainable development strategies.The challenge of adapting successful experiences of urban transformation from one city to another is considerable and cannot be achieved by merely replicating single projects or developments. An important goal was to address this challenge by developing general methods for model-assisted planning and then exploring their applicability and scalability across different contexts and geographical regions. Obtained results confirm that prioritizing industrial and transportation sectors in urban development is the most significant factor contributing to the rapid expansion of cities. This allocation of resources leads to the development of supporting infrastructure and employment opportunities, thereby attracting more people and industries to urban areas. Limiting the expansion of built-up areas and preserving green spaces is a desired measure to protect natural assets and the composition of cities and mitigate the negative environmental consequences of urbanization. Moreover, it is found that there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal needs and dependencies of residents in different areas with respect to natural and social amenities, providing a basis for future land development in residential and commercial areas of a city. Based on these findings, policymakers can more readily test and evaluate “what-if” scenarios using a process-based approach to avoid uncontrolled urban growth. In spite of limitations and uncertainties, the tools presented in this thesis are relevant for urban policymakers to enhance stakeholder interaction and consensus building in the decision-making process. This work has demonstrated the methodological steps for the implementation of these tools, as well as the general potential benefits of dynamic modeling for sustainable city planning and development.
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| 2. |
- Cai, Zipan, 1992-, et al.
(författare)
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Urban spatial dynamic modeling based on urban amenity data to inform smart city planning
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- An ideal form of smart city planning would focus on the availability of urban amenities that can meet the basic needs of a residents material life, civil connections, and humanistic spirit. Previous studies have concentrated on analyzing the spatial distribution of urban services, with less attention on their contribution as local urban amenities. In this study, we propose a spatial dynamic modeling approach based on urban amenities using social media data from Google Place API to provide locational information on potential resident interactions. We use a representative region in Europe (Stockholm County, SE) to simulate and project urban development in the region, until 2050. Our circular conceptual framework of spatial information and feedback supports decision-makers in testing possible urban planning scenarios that align with the vision of a smart city. Simulation results reveal the interplay between human-land interactions on a specific spatial-temporal scale, and we analyze scenario outcomes in relation to commercial and residential land uses. Overall, our study provides a new perspective on human-social behavior-driven urban development, through a smart, spatial dynamic model as a planning support system that can enhance accuracy and realism, and ultimately help realize planned development objectives in the region.
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| 3. |
- Cai, Zipan, et al.
(författare)
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Urban spatial dynamic modeling based on urban amenity data to inform smart city planning
- 2023
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-3054. ; 42
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An ideal form of smart city planning would focus on the availability of urban amenities that can meet the basic needs of a resident's material life, civil connections, and humanistic spirit. Previous studies have concentrated on analyzing the spatial distribution of urban services, with less attention on their contribution as local urban amenities. In this study, we propose a spatial dynamic modeling approach based on urban amenities using social media data from Google Place API to provide locational information on potential resident interactions. We use a representative region in Europe (Stockholm County, SE) to simulate and project urban development in the region until 2050. Our circular conceptual framework of spatial information and feedback supports decision-makers in testing possible urban planning scenarios that align with the vision of a smart city. Simulation results reveal the interplay between human-land interactions on a specific spatial-temporal scale, and we analyze scenario outcomes in relation to commercial and residential land uses. Overall, our study provides a new perspective on human-social behavior-driven urban development, through a smart, spatial dynamic model as a planning support system that can enhance realism, and ultimately help realize planned development objectives in the region.
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| 4. |
- Goldenberg, Romain, et al.
(författare)
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Distinction, quantification and mapping of potential and realized supply-demand of flow-dependent ecosystem services
- 2017
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 593, s. 599-609
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study addresses and conceptualizes the possible dependence of ecosystem services on prevailing air and/or water flow processes and conditions, and particularly on the trajectories and associated spatial reach of these flows in carrying services from supply to demand areas in the landscape. The present conceptualization considers and accounts for such flow-dependence in terms of potential and actually realized service supply and demand, which may generally differ and must therefore be distinguished due to and accounting for the prevailing conditions of service carrier flows. We here concretize and quantify such flow-dependence for a specific landscape case (the Stockholm region, Sweden) and for two examples of regulating ecosystem services: local climate regulation and storm water regulation. For these service and landscape examples, we identify, quantify and map key areas of potential and realized service supply and demand, based for the former (potential) on prevailing relatively static types of landscape conditions (such as land-cover/use, soil type and demographics), and for the latter (realized) on relevant carrier air and water flows. These first-order quantification examples constitute first steps towards further development of generally needed such flow-dependence assessments for various types of ecosystem services in different landscapes over the world.
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| 5. |
- Mörtberg, Ulla, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating ecosystem services in the assessment of urban energy trajectories : A study of the Stockholm Region
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 100, s. 338-349
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urban development trajectories are changing towards compact, energy-efficient cities and renewable energy sources, and this will strongly affect ecosystem services (ES) that cities are dependent on but tend to disregard. Such ES can be provisioning, regulating and cultural ES, around which competition over land resources will increase with energy system shifts. Much of this can be foreseen to take place within urbanising regions that are simultaneously the living environment of a major part of the human population today. In order to inform critical urban policy decisions, tools for integrated assessment of urban energy and transport options and ecosystem services need to be developed. For this purpose, a case study of the Stockholm region was conducted, analysing three scenarios for the future urbanisation of the region, integrating a transport energy perspective and an ES perspective. The results showed that a dense but polycentric development pattern gives more opportunities for sustainable urban development, while the dense monocentric scenario has apparent drawbacks from an ES perspective. The methodology is compatible with a model integration platform for urban policy support and will thus enable integrated policy assessment of complex urban systems, with the goal of increasing their sustainability.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Mörtberg, Ulla, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating ecosystem services in urban energy trajectories
- 2015
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Ingår i: Biwaes 2015 9Th Biennial International Workshop Advances In Energy Studies. - : Verlag der Technischen Universität Graz. - 9783851253931 - 9783851253955 ; , s. 89-
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Changes in urban development trajectories towards renewable energy sources and compact, energy- efficient urban agglomerations will have major impacts on ecosystem services, which cities are dependent on but tend to overlook. Such ecosystem services can be provisioning, regulating and cultural ecosystem services, around which competition over land and water resources will increase with energy system shifts. Much of the land and water use conflicts can be foreseen to take place within urbanising regions, which simultaneously is the living environment of a major part of the human population today. In order to inform critical policy decisions, integrated assessment of urban energy system options and ecosystem services is necessary. For this purpose, the model integration platform Land Evolution and impact Assessment Model (LEAM) is built and empowered with models representing urban form, energy supply and use, transportation, and ecological processes and services, all related to the land and water use evolution. These types of analyses of interacting sub- systems require an advanced model integration platform, yet open for learning and for further development, with high visualisation capacity. Case studies are performed for the cities of Stockholm, Chicago and Shanghai, where urbanisation scenarios are under development. In the case study LEAMStockholm, scenarios for urban compaction and urban sprawl with different energy and water system solutions are being developed, in order to explore the sustainability of urban policy options. This will enable integrated policy assessment of complex urban systems, with the goal to increase their sustainability.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Mörtberg, Ulla, et al.
(författare)
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Urban ecosystems and sustainable urban development-analysing and assessing interacting systems in the Stockholm region
- 2013
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Ingår i: Urban Ecosystems. - : Springer. - 1083-8155 .- 1573-1642. ; 16:4, s. 763-782
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to build competence for sustainability analysis and assessment of urban systems, it is seen as essential to build on models representing urban form, landuse and transportation, urban metabolism, as well as ecological processes. This type of analysis of interacting sub-systems requires an advanced model integration platform, yet open for learning and for further development. Moreover, since the aim is to increase urban experience with ecosystem management in the wide sense, the platform needs to be open and easily available, with high visualisation capacity. For this purpose, the LEAM model was applied to the Stockholm Region and two potential future scenarios were developed, resulting from alternative policies. The scenarios differed widely and the dense urban development of Scenario Compact could be visualised, destroying much of the Greenstructure of Stockholm, while Scenario Urban Nature steered the development more to outer suburbs and some sprawl. For demonstration of the need for further development of biodiversity assessment models, a network model tied to a prioritised ecological profile was applied and altered by the scenarios. It could be shown that the Greenstructure did not support this profile very well. Thus, there is a need for dynamic models for negotiations, finding alternative solutions and interacting with other models. The LEAM Stockholm case study is planned to be further developed, to interact with more advanced transport and land use models, as well as analysing energy systems and urban water issues. This will enable integrated sustainability analysis and assessment of complex urban systems, for integration in the planning process in Stockholm as well as for comparative sustainability studies between different cities, with the goal to build more sustainable urban systems and to increase urban experiences in ecosystem management.
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| 10. |
- Pan, Haozhi, et al.
(författare)
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Sociohydrology modeling for complex urban environments in support of integrated land and water resource management practices
- 2018
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Ingår i: Land Degradation and Development. - : Wiley. - 1085-3278 .- 1099-145X. ; 29:10, s. 3639-3652
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper argues that a systems' thinking and explicit modeling approach is needed to address noted weaknesses (in terms of practicality and usefulness) in integrated water resource management. A process of coupling complex regional land use, economy, and water system interactions in integrated modeling is demonstrated with proof-of-concept applications to two urban cases (Chicago and Stockholm). In this uniquely coupled systems model, urban land use scenarios are considered a complex urban system represented by dynamic systems models of land use, economics, and water with a focus on urban environments that include drivers and system feedbacks with implications focused on urban water systems. The integrated model results reveal that the physical availability of land for economic activities (forecasted via a bottom-up land use change model) and their locations differ sharply from top-down sectoral-based economic forecasts. This shows that both human systems (economic and land use planning) and natural systems (land use limitations and associated water implications) need to be considered in order to accurately account for system(s) impacts. For example, flood zone regulations divert land use to other locations, whereas land cover changes can greatly affect the water infiltration characteristics of land surfaces and thereby alter hydrological outcomes. Our results indicate that modeling social and natural processes using a systems approach can provide a more comprehensive understanding of coupled causal mechanisms, impacts, and feedbacks in applications of integrated water resource management.
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