| 1. |
- Dekker, Evelien, et al.
(författare)
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Nudging the Arctic Ocean to Quantify Sea Ice Feedbacks
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 32:8, s. 2381-2395
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With Arctic summer sea ice potentially disappearing halfway through this century, the surface albedo and insulating effects of Arctic sea ice will decrease considerably. The ongoing Arctic sea ice retreat also affects the strength of the Planck, lapse rate, cloud, and surface albedo feedbacks together with changes in the heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, but their combined effect on climate sensitivity has not been quantified. This study presents an estimate of all Arctic sea ice related climate feedbacks combined. We use a new method to keep Arctic sea ice at its present-day (PD) distribution under a changing climate in a 50-yr CO2 doubling simulation, using a fully coupled global climate model (EC-Earth, version 2.3). We nudge the Arctic Ocean to the (monthly dependent) year 2000 mean temperature and minimum salinity fields on a mask representing PD sea ice cover. We are able to preserve about 95% of the PD mean March and 77% of the September PD Arctic sea ice extent by applying this method. Using simulations with and without nudging, we estimate the climate response associated with Arctic sea ice changes. The Arctic sea ice feedback globally equals 0.28 +/- 0.15 W m(-2) K-1. The total sea ice feedback thus amplifies the climate response for a doubling of CO2, in line with earlier findings. Our estimate of the Arctic sea ice feedback agrees reasonably well with earlier CMIP5 global climate feedback estimates and shows that the Arctic sea ice exerts a considerable effect on the Arctic and global climate sensitivity.
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| 2. |
- Döscher, Ralf, et al.
(författare)
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The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6
- 2022
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:7, s. 2973-3020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Earth system model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new Earth system model (ESM) components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
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| 3. |
- Notz, Dirk, et al.
(författare)
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Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6
- 2020
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 47:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 106 km2) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.
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| 4. |
- Spada, Cristiano, et al.
(författare)
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Second-generation colon capsule endoscopy compared with colonoscopy
- 2011
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Ingår i: Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1097-6779 .- 0016-5107. ; 74:3, s. 581-589
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Colon capsule endoscopy (CCE) represents a noninvasive technology that allows visualization of the colon without requiring sedation and air insufflation. A second-generation colon capsule endoscopy system (PillCam Colon 2) (CCE-2) was developed to increase sensitivity for colorectal polyp detection compared with the first-generation system. Objective: To assess the feasibility, accuracy, and safety of CCE-2 in a head-to-head comparison with colonoscopy. Design and Setting: Prospective, multicenter trial including 8 European sites. Patients: This study involved 117 patients (mean age 60 years). Data from 109 patients were analyzed. Intervention: CCE-2 was prospectively compared with conventional colonoscopy as the criterion standard for the detection of colorectal polyps that are >= 6 mm or masses in a cohort of patients at average or increased risk of colorectal neoplasia. Colonoscopy was independently performed within 10 hours after capsule ingestion or on the next day. Main Outcome Measurements: CCE-2 sensitivity and specificity for detecting patients with polyps >= 6 mm and >= 10 mm were assessed. Capsule-positive but colonoscopy-negative cases were counted as false positive. Capsule excretion rate, level of bowel preparation, and rate of adverse events also were assessed. Results: Per-patient CCE-2 sensitivity for polyps >= 6 mm and >= 10 mm was 84% and 88%, with specificities of 64% and 95%, respectively. All 3 invasive carcinomas were detected by CCE-2. The capsule excretion rate was 88% within 10 hours. Overall colon cleanliness for CCE-2 was adequate in 81% of patients. Limitations: Not unblinding the CCE-2 results at colonoscopy; heterogenous patient population; nonconsecutive patients. Conclusion: In this European, multicenter study, CCE-2 appeared to have a high sensitivity for the detection of clinically relevant polypoicl lesions, and it might be considered an adequate tool for colorectal imaging. (Gastrointest Enclose 201174:581-9.)
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| 5. |
- van Meel, Evelien R., et al.
(författare)
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Early-life respiratory tract infections and the risk of school-age lower lung function and asthma: a meta-analysis of 150 000 European children
- 2022
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Ingår i: European Respiratory Journal. - : EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD. - 0903-1936 .- 1399-3003. ; 60:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Early-life respiratory tract infections might affect chronic obstructive respiratory diseases, but conclusive studies from general populations are lacking. Our objective was to examine if children with early-life respiratory tract infections had increased risks of lower lung function and asthma at school age. Methods We used individual participant data of 150 090 children primarily from the EU Child Cohort Network to examine the associations of upper and lower respiratory tract infections from age 6 months to 5 years with forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), FEV1/FVC, forced expiratory flow at 75% of FVC (FEF75%) and asthma at a median (range) age of 7 (4-15) years. Results Children with early-life lower, not upper, respiratory tract infections had a lower school-age FEV1, FEV1/FVC and FEF75% (z-score range: -0.09 (95% CI -0.14- -0.04) to -0.30 (95% CI -0.36- -0.24)). Children with early-life lower respiratory tract infections had a higher increased risk of school-age asthma than those with upper respiratory tract infections (OR range: 2.10 (95% CI 1.98-2.22) to 6.30 (95% CI 5.64-7.04) and 1.25 (95% CI 1.18-1.32) to 1.55 (95% CI 1.47-1.65), respectively). Adjustment for preceding respiratory tract infections slightly decreased the strength of the effects. Observed associations were similar for those with and without early-life wheezing as a proxy for early-life asthma. Conclusions Our findings suggest that early-life respiratory tract infections affect development of chronic obstructive respiratory diseases in later life, with the strongest effects for lower respiratory tract infections.
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| 6. |
- Veldwijk, Jorien, et al.
(författare)
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How psychological distance of a study sample in discrete choice experiments affects preference measurement : a colorectal cancer screening case study
- 2019
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Ingår i: Patient Preference and Adherence. - : DOVE MEDICAL PRESS LTD. - 1177-889X. ; 13, s. 273-282
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate to what extent the outcomes of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) differ based on respondents' psychological distance to the decision at hand. Methods: A DCE questionnaire regarding individuals' preferences for genetic screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) within the Dutch national CRC screening program was created. The DCE contained nine D-efficient designed choice tasks and was distributed among two populations that differ in their psychological distance to the decision at hand: 1) a representative sample of the Dutch general population aged 55-65 years, and 2) a sample of Dutch individuals who attended an information appointment regarding colonoscopies following the detection of blood in their stool sample in the CRC screening program. The DCE consisted of four attributes related to the decision whether to participate in genetic screening for CRC: 1) risk of being genetically predisposed, 2) risk of developing CRC, 3) frequency of follow-up colonoscopies, and 4) survival. Direct attribute ranking, dominant decision-making behavior, and relative importance scores (based on panel MIXL) were compared between the two populations. Attribute level estimates were compared with the Swait and Louviere test. Results: The proportion of respondents who both ranked survival as the most important attribute, and showed dominant decision-making behavior for this attribute, was significantly higher in the screened population compared to the general population. The relative importance scores of the attributes significantly differed between populations. Finally, the Swait and Louviere test also revealed significant differences in attribute level estimates in both the populations. Conclusion: The study outcomes differed between populations depending on their psychological distance to the decision. This study shows the importance of adequate sample selection; therefore, it is advocated to increase attention to study sample selection and reporting in DCE studies.
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