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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10, s. E1332-E1345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
- Emerging Risk Factors, Collaboration, et al.
(författare)
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The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration: analysis of individual data on lipid, inflammatory and other markers in over 1.1 million participants in 104 prospective studies of cardiovascular diseases
- 2007
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Ingår i: Eur J Epidemiol. - 0393-2990. ; 22:12, s. 839-69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many long-term prospective studies have reported on associations of cardiovascular diseases with circulating lipid markers and/or inflammatory markers. Studies have not, however, generally been designed to provide reliable estimates under different circumstances and to correct for within-person variability. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration has established a central database on over 1.1 million participants from 104 prospective population-based studies, in which subsets have information on lipid and inflammatory markers, other characteristics, as well as major cardiovascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information on repeat measurements on relevant characteristics has been collected in approximately 340,000 participants to enable estimation of and correction for within-person variability. Re-analysis of individual data will yield up to approximately 69,000 incident fatal or nonfatal first ever major cardiovascular outcomes recorded during about 11.7 million person years at risk. The primary analyses will involve age-specific regression models in people without known baseline cardiovascular disease in relation to fatal or nonfatal first ever coronary heart disease outcomes. This initiative will characterize more precisely and in greater detail than has previously been possible the shape and strength of the age- and sex-specific associations of several lipid and inflammatory markers with incident coronary heart disease outcomes (and, secondarily, with other incident cardiovascular outcomes) under a wide range of circumstances. It will, therefore, help to determine to what extent such associations are independent from possible confounding factors and to what extent such markers (separately and in combination) provide incremental predictive value.
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| 3. |
- Gregson, J., et al.
(författare)
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Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism
- 2019
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Ingår i: JAMA Cardiology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0965-2590 .- 2380-6583 .- 2380-6591. ; 4:2, s. 163-173
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). OBJECTIVE To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CND], 25131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS Of the 731728 participants from the ERFC. 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk.
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| 4. |
- Danesh, John, et al.
(författare)
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Plasma fibrinogen level and the risk of major cardiovascular diseases and nonvascular mortality: an individual participant meta-analysis
- 2005
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Ingår i: JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 1538-3598 .- 0098-7484. ; 294:14, s. 1799-1809
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- CONTEXT: Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data. DATA SOURCES: Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators. STUDY SELECTION: All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias. DATA SYNTHESIS: Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design. CONCLUSIONS: In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.
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| 7. |
- Matikainen, N., et al.
(författare)
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Fructose intervention for 12 weeks does not impair glycemic control or incretin hormone responses during oral glucose or mixed meal tests in obese men
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nutrition Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases. - : Elsevier BV. - 0939-4753. ; 27:6, s. 534-542
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and aims: Incretin hormones glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) are affected early on in the pathogenesis of metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes. Epidemiologic studies consistently link high fructose consumption to insulin resistance but whether fructose consumption impairs the incretin response remains unknown. Methods and results: As many as 66 obese (BMI 26-40 kg/m(2)) male subjects consumed fructose-sweetened beverages containing 75 g fructose/day for 12 weeks while continuing their usual lifestyle. Glucose, insulin, GLP-1 and GIP were measured during oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and triglycerides (TG), GLP-1, GIP and PYY during a mixed meal test before and after fructose intervention. Fructose intervention did not worsen glucose and insulin responses during OGTT, and GLP-1 and GIP responses during OGTT and fat-rich meal were unchanged. Postprandial TG response increased significantly, p = 0.004, and we observed small but significant increases in weight and liver fat content, but not in visceral or subcutaneous fat depots. However, even the subgroups who gained weight or liver fat during fructose intervention did not worsen their glucose, insulin, GLP-1 or PYY responses. A minor increase in GIP response during OGTT occurred in subjects who gained liver fat (p = 0.049). Conclusion: In obese males with features of metabolic syndrome, 12 weeks fructose intervention 75 g/day did not change glucose, insulin, GLP-1 or GIP responses during OGTT or GLP-1, GIP or PYY responses during a mixed meal. Therefore, fructose intake, even accompanied with mild weight gain, increases in liver fat and worsening of postprandial TG profile, does not impair glucose tolerance or gut incretin response to oral glucose or mixed meal challenge. (C) 2017 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 10. |
- Matikainen, N., et al.
(författare)
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Minor contribution of endogenous GLP-1 and GLP-2 to postprandial lipemia in obese men
- 2016
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Glucose and lipids stimulate the gut-hormones glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1, GLP-2 and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) but the effect of these on human postprandial lipid metabolism is not fully clarified. Objective. To explore the responses of GLP-1, GLP-2 and GIP after a fat-rich meal compared to the same responses after an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and to investigate possible relationships between incretin response and triglyceride-rich lipoprotein (TRL) response to a fat-rich meal. Design. Glucose, insulin, GLP-1, GLP-2 and GIP were measured after an OGTT and after a fat-rich meal in 65 healthy obese (BMI 26.5-40.2 kg/m2) male subjects. Triglycerides (TG), apoB48 and apoB100 in TG-rich lipoproteins (chylomicrons, VLDL1 and VLDL2) were measured after the fat-rich meal. Main Outcome Measures. Postprandial responses (area under the curve, AUC) for glucose, insulin, GLP-1, GLP-2, GIP in plasma, and TG, apoB48 and apoB100 in plasma and TG-rich lipoproteins. Results. The GLP-1, GLP-2 and GIP responses after the fat-rich meal and after the OGTT correlated strongly (r = 0.73, p<0.0001; r = 0.46, p<0.001 and r = 0.69, p<0.001, respectively). Glucose and insulin AUCs were lower, but the AUCs for GLP-1, GLP-2 and GIP were significantly higher after the fat-rich meal than after the OGTT. The peak value for all hormones appeared at 120 minutes after the fat-rich meal, compared to 30 minutes after the OGTT. After the fat-rich meal, the AUCs for GLP-1, GLP-2 and GIP correlated significantly with plasma TG- and apoB48 AUCs but the contribution was very modest. Conclusions. In obese males, GLP-1, GLP-2 and GIP responses to a fat-rich meal are greater than following an OGTT. However, the most important explanatory variable for postprandial TG excursion was fasting triglycerides. The contribution of endogenous GLP-1, GLP-2 and GIP to explaining the variance in postprandial TG excursion was minor. Copyright © 2016 Matikainen et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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