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| 3. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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- Carleo, Ilaria, et al.
(författare)
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The Multiplanet System TOI-421*
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-3881 .- 0004-6256. ; 160:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the discovery of a warm Neptune and a hot sub-Neptune transiting TOI-421 (BD-14 1137, TIC 94986319), a bright (V = 9.9) G9 dwarf star in a visual binary system observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) space mission in Sectors 5 and 6. We performed ground-based follow-up observations-comprised of Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope transit photometry, NIRC2 adaptive optics imaging, and FIbre-fed Echelle Spectrograph, CORALIE, High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher, High Resolution echelle Spectrometer, and Planet Finder Spectrograph high-precision Doppler measurements-and confirmed the planetary nature of the 16 day transiting candidate announced by the TESS team. We discovered an additional radial velocity signal with a period of five days induced by the presence of a second planet in the system, which we also found to transit its host star. We found that the inner mini-Neptune, TOI-421 b, has an orbital period of P-b = 5.19672 +/- 0.00049 days, a mass of M-b = 7.17 +/- 0.66 M-circle plus, and a radius of R-b = R-circle plus, whereas the outer warm Neptune, TOI-421 c, has a period of P-c = 16.06819 +/- 0.00035 days, a mass of M-c = 16.42(-1.04)(+1.06)M(circle plus), a radius of R-c = 5.09(-0.15)(+0.16)R(circle plus), and a density of rho(c) = 0.685(-0.072)(+0.080) cm(-3). With its characteristics, the outer planet (rho(c) = 0.685(-0.0072)(+0.080) cm(-3)) is placed in the intriguing class of the super-puffy mini-Neptunes. TOI-421 b and TOI-421 c are found to be well-suited for atmospheric characterization. Our atmospheric simulations predict significant Ly alpha transit absorption, due to strong hydrogen escape in both planets, as well as the presence of detectable CH4 in the atmosphere of TOI-421 c if equilibrium chemistry is assumed.
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| 6. |
- Serrano, L. M., et al.
(författare)
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A low-eccentricity migration pathway for a 13-h-period Earth analogue in a four-planet system
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Astronomy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3366. ; 6:6, s. 736-750
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is commonly accepted that exoplanets with orbital periods shorter than one day, also known as ultra-short-period (USP) planets, formed further out within their natal protoplanetary disks before migrating to their current-day orbits via dynamical interactions. One of the most accepted theories suggests a violent scenario involving high-eccentricity migration followed by tidal circularization. Here we present the discovery of a four-planet system orbiting the bright (V = 10.5) K6 dwarf star TOI-500. The innermost planet is a transiting, Earth-sized USP planet with an orbital period of ~13 hours, a mass of 1.42 ± 0.18 M⊕, a radius of 1.166−0.058+0.061R⊕ and a mean density of 4.89−0.88+1.03gcm−3. Via Doppler spectroscopy, we discovered that the system hosts 3 outer planets on nearly circular orbits with periods of 6.6, 26.2 and 61.3 days and minimum masses of 5.03 ± 0.41 M⊕, 33.12 ± 0.88 M⊕ and 15.05−1.11+1.12M⊕, respectively. The presence of both a USP planet and a low-mass object on a 6.6-day orbit indicates that the architecture of this system can be explained via a scenario in which the planets started on low-eccentricity orbits then moved inwards through a quasi-static secular migration. Our numerical simulations show that this migration channel can bring TOI-500 b to its current location in 2 Gyr, starting from an initial orbit of 0.02 au. TOI-500 is the first four-planet system known to host a USP Earth analogue whose current architecture can be explained via a non-violent migration scenario.
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| 7. |
- Osborne, H. L.M., et al.
(författare)
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TOI-544 b: a potential water-world inside the radius valley in a two-planet system
- 2024
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 527:4, s. 11138-11157
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the precise radial velocity follow-up of TOI-544 (HD 290498),ã bright K star ( V = 10.8), which hostsã small transiting planet recently disco v ered by the Trãnsiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) . We collected 122 high-resolution High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS)ãnd HARPS-N spectra to spectroscopically confirm the transiting planetãnd measure its mass. The nearly 3-yr baseline of our follow-upãllowed us to unveil the presence ofãnãdditional, non-transiting, longer-period companion planet. We derivedã radiusãnd mass for the inner planet, TOI-544 b, of 2.018 ±0.076 R⊙and 2.89 ±0.48 M⊙, respectively, which givesã bulk density of 1 . 93 + 0 . 30 -0 . 25 g cm -3 . TOI-544 c hasã minimum mass of 21.5 ±2.0 M⊙and orbital period of 50.1 ±0.2 d. The low density of planet-b implies that it has eitherãn Earth-like rocky core withã hydrogenãtmosphere, orã composition which harboursã significant fraction of water. The composition interpretation is degenerate depending on the specific choice of planet interior models used. Additionally, TOI-544 b hasãn orbital period of 1.55 dãnd equilibrium temperature of 999 ±14 K, placing it within the predicted location of the radius valley, where few planetsãre expected. TOI-544 b isã top target for futureãtmospheric observations, for example with JWST , which would enable better constraints of the planet composition.
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| 8. |
- Diaz, Matias R., et al.
(författare)
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TOI-132 b: A short-period planet in the Neptune desert transiting a V=11.3 G-type star
- 2020
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 493:1, s. 973-985
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Neptune desert is a feature seen in the radius-period plane, whereby a notable dearth of short period, Neptune-like planets is found. Here, we report the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) discovery of a new short-period planet in the Neptune desert, orbiting the G-type dwarf TYC 8003-1117-1 (TOI-132). TESS photometry shows transit-like dips at the level of similar to 1400 ppm occurring every similar to 2.11 d. High-precision radial velocity follow-up with High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher confirmed the planetary nature of the transit signal and provided a semi-amplitude radial velocity variation of 11.38(-0.85)(+0.84) m s(-1), which, when combined with the stellar mass of 0.97 +/- 0.06 M-circle dot, provides a planetary mass of 22.40(-1.92)(+1.90) M-circle plus. Modelling the TESS light curve returns a planet radius of 3.42(-0.14)(+0.13) R-circle plus , and therefore the planet bulk density is found to be 3.08(-0.46)(+0.44) g cm(-3). Planet structure models suggest that the bulk of the planet mass is in the form of a rocky core, with an atmospheric mass fraction of 4.3(-2.3)(+1.2) percent. TOI-132 b is a TESS Level 1 Science Requirement candidate, and therefore priority follow-up will allow the search for additional planets in the system, whilst helping to constrain low-mass planet formation and evolution models, particularly valuable for better understanding of the Neptune desert.
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