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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Marlevi, David, et al.
(author)
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Estimation of Cardiovascular Relative Pressure Using Virtual Work-Energy
- 2019
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In: Scientific Reports. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2045-2322. ; 9:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Many cardiovascular diseases lead to local increases in relative pressure, reflecting the higher costs of driving blood flow. The utility of this biomarker for stratifying the severity of disease has thus driven the development of methods to measure these relative pressures. While intravascular catheterisation remains the most direct measure, its invasiveness limits clinical application in many instances. Non-invasive Doppler ultrasound estimates have partially addressed this gap; however only provide relative pressure estimates for a range of constricted cardiovascular conditions. Here we introduce a non-invasive method that enables arbitrary interrogation of relative pressures throughout an imaged vascular structure, leveraging modern phase contrast magnetic resonance imaging, the virtual work-energy equations, and a virtual field to provide robust and accurate estimates. The versatility and accuracy of the method is verified in a set of complex patient-specific cardiovascular models, where relative pressures into previously inaccessible flow regions are assessed. The method is further validated within a cohort of congenital heart disease patients, providing a novel tool for probing relative pressures in-vivo.
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| 3. |
- Marlevi, David, doktorand, et al.
(author)
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Non-invasive estimation of relative pressure in turbulent flow using virtual work-energy
- 2020
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In: Medical Image Analysis. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 1361-8415 .- 1361-8423. ; 60
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Vascular pressure differences are established risk markers for a number of cardiovascular diseases. Relative pressures are, however, often driven by turbulence-induced flow fluctuations, where conventional non-invasive methods may yield inaccurate results. Recently, we proposed a novel method for non-turbulent flows, νWERP, utilizing the concept of virtual work-energy to accurately probe relative pressure through complex branching vasculature. Here, we present an extension of this approach for turbulent flows: νWERP-t. We present a theoretical method derivation based on flow covariance, quantifying the impact of flow fluctuations on relative pressure. νWERP-t is tested on a set of in-vitro stenotic flow phantoms with data acquired by 4D flow MRI with six-directional flow encoding, as well as on a patient-specific in-silico model of an acute aortic dissection. Over all tests νWERP-t shows improved accuracy over alternative energy-based approaches, with excellent recovery of estimated relative pressures. In particular, the use of a guaranteed divergence-free virtual field improves accuracy in cases where turbulent flows skew the apparent divergence of the acquired field. With the original νWERP allowing for assessment of relative pressure into previously inaccessible vasculatures, the extended νWERP-t further enlarges the method's clinical scope, underlining its potential as a novel tool for assessing relative pressure in-vivo.
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