| 1. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 2. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 3. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Weinstein, John N., et al.
(författare)
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The cancer genome atlas pan-cancer analysis project
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 45:10, s. 1113-1120
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Research Network has profiled and analyzed large numbers of human tumors to discover molecular aberrations at the DNA, RNA, protein and epigenetic levels. The resulting rich data provide a major opportunity to develop an integrated picture of commonalities, differences and emergent themes across tumor lineages. The Pan-Cancer initiative compares the first 12 tumor types profiled by TCGA. Analysis of the molecular aberrations and their functional roles across tumor types will teach us how to extend therapies effective in one cancer type to others with a similar genomic profile. © 2013 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.
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| 5. |
- Fedirko, Veronika, et al.
(författare)
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Vitamin D-Related Genes, Blood Vitamin D Levels and Colorectal Cancer Risk in Western European Populations
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nutrients. - : MDPI. - 2072-6643. ; 11:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Higher circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels (25(OH)D) have been found to be associated with lower risk for colorectal cancer (CRC) in prospective studies. Whether this association is modified by genetic variation in genes related to vitamin D metabolism and action has not been well studied in humans. We investigated 1307 functional and tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; individually, and by gene/pathway) in 86 vitamin D-related genes in 1420 incident CRC cases matched to controls from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. We also evaluated the association between these SNPs and circulating 25(OH)D in a subset of controls. We confirmed previously reported CRC risk associations between SNPs in the VDR, GC, and CYP27B1 genes. We also identified additional associations with 25(OH)D, as well as CRC risk, and several potentially novel SNPs in genes related to vitamin D transport and action (LRP2, CUBN, NCOA7, and HDAC9). However, none of these SNPs were statistically significant after Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) multiple testing correction. When assessed by a priori defined functional pathways, tumor growth factor beta (TGF beta) signaling was associated with CRC risk (P <= 0.001), with most statistically significant genes being SMAD7 (P-BH = 0.008) and SMAD3 (P-BH = 0.008), and 18 SNPs in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) binding sites (P = 0.036). The 25(OH)D-gene pathway analysis suggested that genetic variants in the genes related to VDR complex formation and transcriptional activity are associated with CRC depending on 25(OH)D levels (interaction P = 0.041). Additional studies in large populations and consortia, especially with measured circulating 25(OH)D, are needed to confirm our findings.
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| 6. |
- Velasquez, Nicolas, et al.
(författare)
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X-ray induced ultrafast charge transfer in thiophene-based conjugated polymers controlled by core-hole clock spectroscopy
- 2024
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Ingår i: Physical Chemistry Chemical Physics. - 1463-9076 .- 1463-9084. ; 26:2, s. 1234-1244
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We explore ultrafast charge transfer (CT) resonantly induced by hard X-ray radiation in organic thiophene-based polymers at the sulfur K-edge. A combination of core-hole clock spectroscopy with real-time propagation time-dependent density functional theory simulations gives an insight into the electron dynamics underlying the CT process. Our method provides control over CT by a selective excitation of a specific resonance in the sulfur atom with monochromatic X-ray radiation. Our combined experimental and theoretical investigation establishes that the dominant mechanism of CT in polymer powders and films consists of electron delocalisation along the polymer chain occurring on the low-femtosecond time scale.
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| 7. |
- Žliobaitė, Indrė, et al.
(författare)
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The NOW Database of Fossil Mammals
- 2023
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Ingår i: Evolution of Cenozoic Land Mammal Faunas and Ecosystems: 25 years of the NOW database of fossil mammals. - : Springer. ; , s. 33-42
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- NOW (New and Old Worlds) is a global database of fossil mammal occurrences, currently containing around 68,000 locality-species entries. The database spans the last 66 million years, with its primary focus on the last 23 million years. Whereas the database contains records from all continents, the main focus and coverage of the database historically has been on Eurasia. The database includes primarily, but not exclusively, terrestrial mammals. It covers a large part of the currently known mammalian fossil record, focusing on classical and actively researched fossil localities. The database is managed in collaboration with an international advisory board of experts. Rather than a static archive, it emphasizes the continuous integration of new knowledge of the community, data curation, and consistency of scientific interpretations. The database records species occurrences at localities worldwide, as well as ecological characteristics of fossil species, geological contexts of localities and more. The NOW database is primarily used for two purposes: (1) queries about occurrences of particular taxa, their characteristics and properties of localities in the spirit of an encyclopedia; and (2) large scale research and quantitative analyses of evolutionary processes, patterns, reconstructing past environments, as well as interpreting evolutionary contexts. The data are fully open, no logging in or community membership is necessary for using the data for any purpose.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Aucott, Rebecca, et al.
(författare)
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HP1-beta is required for development of the cerebral neocortex and neuromuscular junctions
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Cell Biology. - : Rockefeller University Press. - 0021-9525 .- 1540-8140. ; 183:4, s. 597-606
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- HP1 proteins are thought to be modulators of chromatin organization in all mammals, yet their exact physiological function remains unknown. In a first attempt to elucidate the function of these proteins in vivo, we disrupted the murine Cbx1 gene, which encodes the HP1-beta isotype, and show that the Cbx1(-/-) null mutation leads to perinatal lethality. The newborn mice succumbed to acute respiratory failure, whose likely cause is the defective development of neuromuscular junctions within the endplate of the diaphragm. We also observe aberrant cerebral cortex development in Cbx1(-/-) mutant brains, which have reduced proliferation of neuronal precursors, widespread cell death, and edema. In vitro cultures of neurospheres from Cbx1(-/-) mutant brains reveal a dramatic genomic instability. Our results demonstrate that HP1 proteins are not functionally redundant and that they are likely to regulate lineage-specific changes in heterochromatin organization.
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| 10. |
- Cohen, R., et al.
(författare)
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Role of proximal gut exclusion from food on glucose homeostasis in patients with Type 2 diabetes
- 2013
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Ingår i: Diabetic Medicine. - : Wiley. - 0742-3071 .- 1464-5491. ; 30, s. 1482-1486
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: To report Type 2 diabetes-related outcomes after the implantation of a duodenal-jejunal bypass liner device and to investigate the role of proximal gut exclusion from food in glucose homeostasis using the model of this device. Methods: Sixteen patients with Type 2 diabetes and BMI <36kg/m2 were evaluated before and 1, 12 and 52weeks after duodenal-jejunal bypass liner implantation and 26weeks after explantation. Mixed-meal tolerance tests were conducted over a period of 120min and glucose, insulin and C-peptide levels were measured. The Matsuda index and the homeostatic model of assessment of insulin resistance were used for the estimation of insulin sensitivity and insulin resistance. The insulin secretion rate was calculated using deconvolution of C-peptide levels. Results: Body weight decreased by 1.3kg after 1week and by 2.4kg after 52weeks (P<0.001). One year after duodenal-jejunal bypass liner implantation, the mean (sem) HbA1c level decreased from 71.3 (2.4) mmol/mol (8.6[0.2]%) to 58.1 (4.4) mmol/mol (7.5 [0.4]%) and mean (sem) fasting glucose levels decreased from 203.3 (13.5) mg/dl to 155.1 (13.1) mg/dl (both P<0.001). Insulin sensitivity improved by >50% as early as 1week after implantation as measured by the Matsuda index and the homeostatic model of assessment of insulin resistance (P<0.001), but there was a trend towards deterioration in all the above-mentioned variables 26weeks after explantation. Fasting insulin levels, insulin area under the curve, fasting C-peptide, C-peptide area under the curve, fasting insulin and total insulin secretion rates did not change during the duodenal-jejunal bypass liner implantation period or after explantation. Conclusions: The duodenal-jejunal bypass liner improves glycaemia in overweight and obese patients with Type 2 diabetes by rapidly improving insulin sensitivity. A reduction in hepatic glucose output is the most likely explanation for this improvement. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes UK.
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