| 1. |
- Barbolini, Natasha, et al.
(författare)
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Cenozoic evolution of the steppe-desert biome in Central Asia
- 2020
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 6:41
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The origins and development of the arid and highly seasonal steppe-desert biome in Central Asia, the largest of its kind in the world, remain largely unconstrained by existing records. It is unclear how Cenozoic climatic, geological, and biological forces, acting at diverse spatial and temporal scales, shaped Central Asian ecosystems through time. Our synthesis shows that the Central Asian steppe-desert has existed since at least Eocene times but experienced no less than two regime shifts, one at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition and one in the mid-Miocene. These shifts separated three successive stable states, each characterized by unique floral and faunal structures. Past responses to disturbance in the Asian steppe-desert imply that modern ecosystems are unlikely to recover their present structures and diversity if forced into a new regime. This is of concern for Asian steppes today, which are being modified for human use and lost to desertification at unprecedented rates.
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| 2. |
- Acosta, R. P., et al.
(författare)
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A Model-Data Comparison of the Hydrological Response to Miocene Warmth : Leveraging the MioMIP1 Opportunistic Multi-Model Ensemble
- 2024
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Ingår i: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. - 2572-4517 .- 2572-4525. ; 39:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Miocene (23.03-5.33 Ma) is recognized as a period with close to modern-day paleogeography, yet a much warmer climate. With large uncertainties in future hydroclimate projections, Miocene conditions illustrate a potential future analog for the Earth system. A recent opportunistic Miocene Model Intercomparison Project 1 (MioMIP1) focused on synthesizing published Miocene climate simulations and comparing them with available temperature reconstructions. Here, we build on this effort by analyzing the hydrological cycle response to Miocene forcings across early-to-middle (E2MMIO; 20.03-11.6 Ma) and middle-to-late Miocene (M2LMIO; 11.5-5.33 Ma) simulations with CO2 concentrations ranging from 200 to 850 ppm and providing a model-data comparison against available precipitation reconstructions. We find global precipitation increases by similar to 2.1 and 2.3% per degree of warming for E2MMIO and M2LMIO simulations, respectively. Models generally agree on a wetter than modern-day tropics; mid and high-latitude, however, do not agree on the sign of subtropical precipitation changes with warming. Global monsoon analysis suggests most monsoon regions, except the North American Monsoon, experience higher precipitation rates under warmer conditions. Model-data comparison shows that mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models regardless of CO2 concentration, particularly in the mid- to high-latitudes. This suggests that the models may not be (a) resolving key processes driving the hydrological cycle response to Miocene boundary conditions and/or (b) other boundary conditions or processes not considered here are critical to reproducing Miocene hydroclimate. This study highlights the challenges in modeling and reconstructing the Miocene hydrological cycle and serves as a baseline for future coordinated MioMIP efforts. This study looks at Earth's hydrological cycle during the Miocene (23-5 million years ago). During this period, the Earth's climate was 3-7 degrees C warmer than today, with carbon dioxide (CO2) estimates ranging between 400 and 850 ppm. Understanding how the hydrological cycle responded during warmer climate conditions can give us insight into what might happen as the Earth gets warmer. We analyzed a suite of Miocene paleoclimate simulations with different CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and compared them against fossil plant data, which gives an estimate of the average annual rainfall during the period. We found that during the Miocene global rainfall increased by about 2.1%-2.3% for each degree of warming. The models agree that the tropics, mid- and high-latitude, became wetter than they are today but have lower agreement on whether subtropical areas got wetter or drier as they warmed. Compared to proxies, models consistently underestimated how much rain fell in a year, especially in the mid- to high-latitude. This illustrates the challenges in reconstructing the Miocene's hydrological cycle and suggests that the models might not fully capture the range of uncertainties associated with changes in the hydrological cycle due to warming or other factors that differentiated the Miocene. A multi-model comparison of the hydrological cycle in early-to-middle and middle-to-late Miocene simulations is conductedModels generally agree on wetter than modern tropics, middle and high latitudes, but not on the sign of subtropical precipitation changesModel-data comparison shows mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models, particularly in the mid- to high-latitudes
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| 3. |
- Burls, N. J., et al.
(författare)
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Simulating Miocene Warmth : Insights From an Opportunistic Multi-Model Ensemble (MioMIP1)
- 2021
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Ingår i: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. - 2572-4517 .- 2572-4525. ; 36:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03-5.33 Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300 and 600 ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75-14.5 Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker-than-modern equator-to-pole temperature difference. Here, we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model-data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modeling efforts and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO2 is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO2, such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by similar to 2 degrees C, with the spread in warming under a given CO2 concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to similar to 1.2 times a CO2 doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference data sets represent the state-of-art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi-model, multi-proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress toward simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community-led efforts to coordinate modeling and data activities within a common analytical framework.
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| 4. |
- Porada, Philipp, et al.
(författare)
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High potential for weathering and climate effects of non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It has been hypothesized that predecessors of today's bryophytes significantly increased global chemical weathering in the Late Ordovician, thus reducing atmospheric CO2 concentration and contributing to climate cooling and an interval of glaciations. Studies that try to quantify the enhancement of weathering by non-vascular vegetation, however, are usually limited to small areas and low numbers of species, which hampers extrapolating to the global scale and to past climatic conditions. Here we present a spatially explicit modelling approach to simulate global weathering by non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician. We estimate a potential global weathering flux of 2.8 (km(3) rock) yr(-1), defined here as volume of primary minerals affected by chemical transformation. This is around three times larger than today's global chemical weathering flux. Moreover, we find that simulated weathering is highly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration. This implies a strong negative feedback between weathering by non-vascular vegetation and Ordovician climate.
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