| 1. |
- Scaife, A. A., et al.
(författare)
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Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters
- 2014
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 41:7, s. 2514-2519
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Until recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability. The winter NAO can be skilfully predicted months ahead The signal-to-noise ratio of the predictable signal is anomalously low Predictions of the risk of regional winter extremes are possible
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| 2. |
- Eade, Chris J., et al.
(författare)
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“The Whole Moon was Eaten”: Southeast Asian Eclipse Calculation
- 1998
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Ingår i: Journal of Southeast Asian Studies. - 0022-4634. ; 29:2, s. 309-318
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One might classify earthquakes and volcanic eruptions as “natural disasters”, whereas comets and eclipses might be described merely as “natural curiosities”. In earlier times, however, all were equally frightening, signs that the gods were angry.A form of protection against eclipses was available, however, in the sense that prediction provided a means of countering the event. Consequently one main function of the astronomer/astrologer (henceforth “hora”) in his society was to warn his patron that the sky would darken and the birds stop singing at such and such a time on such and such a day.
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| 3. |
- Gislén, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Burmese shadow calculations
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Astronomical History and Heritage. - 1440-2807. ; 17:3, s. 258-266
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The methods of calculation of shadow lengths of the Sun and the Moon seem to be a specific for Burmese astronomy and have many original features. The present paper gives a detailed exposition of these methods with an analysis of an example taken from a Burmese manuscript.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Gislén, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Philippe de la Hire’s eighteenth century eclipse predictor
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Astronomical History and Heritage. - 1440-2807. ; 19:1, s. 46-50
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate the workings of an early eighteenth century instrument for predicting eclipses described by the French astronomer de la Hire in his book Tabulae Astronomicae.
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