| 1. |
- Pihl, E., et al.
(författare)
-
Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press. - 2059-4798.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
|
|
| 2. |
- Field, Christopher B., et al.
(författare)
-
Summary for Policymakers
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and SectoralAspects.. - 9781107415379 ; , s. 1-32
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., et al.
(författare)
-
Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 150:3-4, s. 391-402
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.
|
|
| 5. |
- Bustamante, Mercedes, et al.
(författare)
-
Ten new insights in climate science 2023
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS. - 2059-4798. ; 7
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5 degrees C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems.Technical summary The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5 degrees C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference.Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts.
|
|
| 6. |
- Frieler, K, et al.
(författare)
-
Assessing the impacts of 1.5° C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10, s. 4321-4345
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Con- vention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a “special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 â—ŠC above pre-industrial levels and related global green- house gas emission pathwaysâ€. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we de- scribe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is de- signed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of histori- cal warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from im- pacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simula- tions); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warm- ing up to 1.5 â—ŠC, including a potential overshoot and long- term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher lev- els of global mean temperature change (based on the low- emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the cli- mate effects based on the same climate scenarios while ac- counting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic con- ditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeco- nomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particu- lar differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0.With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and anal- ysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or am- plify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact mod- els across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiver- sity).
|
|
| 7. |
- Guo, Yuming, et al.
(författare)
-
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios : A multicountry time series modelling study
- 2018
-
Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 15:7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
|
|
| 8. |
- Helldeen, D., et al.
(författare)
-
Climate change and child health: a scoping review and an expanded conceptual framework
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Lancet Planetary Health. - : Elsevier. - 2542-5196. ; 26, s. 9-9
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change can have detrimental effects on child health and wellbeing. Despite the imperative for a fuller understanding of how climate change affects child health and wellbeing, a systematic approach and focus solely on children (aged <18 years) has been lacking. In this Scoping Review, we did a literature search on the impacts of climate change on child health from January, 2000, to June, 2019. The included studies explicitly linked an alteration of an exposure to a risk factor for child health to climate change or climate variability. In total, 2970 original articles, reviews, and other documents were identified, of which 371 were analysed. Employing an expanded framework, our analysis showed that the effects of climate change on child health act through direct and indirect pathways, with implications for determinants of child health as well as morbidity and mortality from a range of diseases. This understanding can be further enhanced by using a broader range of research methods, studying overlooked populations and geographical regions, investigating the costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation for child health, and considering the position of climate change and child health within the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Present and future generations of children bear and will continue to bear an unacceptably high disease burden from climate change.
|
|
| 9. |
- Liu-Helmersson, Jing, et al.
(författare)
-
Seasonality of dengue epidemic potential in Europe - based on vectorial capacity for Aedes mosquitoes
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Tropical medicine & international health. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1360-2276 .- 1365-3156. ; 20:Suppl. 1, s. 113-113
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Introduction: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has become a major public health concern. About 390 million people are infected yearly. Increased global connectivity and population movement as well as climate change affect the global distribution of both dengue vectors and the virus, facilitating the spread of dengue to new geographic areas. Weather is an important factor determining mosquito behaviour and effectiveness of dengue virus transmission. Dengue epidemic potential depends on vectorial capacity of Aedes mosquitoes, which depend on climate, such as, temperature and diurnal temperature range. This study aims at identifying high-risk areas and high-risk time windows in Europe based on temperature, in order for timely vector surveillance and control.Methods: Relative vectorial capacity (rVc) was used to estimate dengue epidemic potential. Using historical and projected temperature data over two centuries (1901–2099) and temperature dependent vector parameters for Aedes vectors, rVc was calculated for 10 selected European cities from Stockholm in the North to Malaga in the South.Results: Compared to dengue endemic areas, rVc in Europe was lower and showed more prominent seasonality. The peak and width of the seasonal windows in rVc were generally higher in the South than the North. Currently, only South and Central-East Europe and the summer season corresponds to rVc that is over the threshold for possible dengue transmission. By the end of this century, in the best case scenario, all the Central and Southern European cities would be at risk for dengue transmission during the warmer months; in the worst case scenario, this risk would extend to Northern European to include Stockholm if dengue vectors were established and virus introduced.Conclusion: As travel and globalization become more frequent channels for dengue vector and virus introduction, Europe may face the reality of more frequent dengue outbreaks in their warmer months. Madeira's outbreak in 2012 underlines this concern. The future's high risk area and time window depend sensitively on climate scenarios. Therefore, it is important to emphasize climate change mitigation and enhance vector surveillance and control in Europe.Acknowledgement: This research was funded by the European Union 7th Framework Programme through 'DengueTools' (www.denguetools.net).Disclosure: Nothing to disclose.
|
|
| 10. |
- Martin, Maria A., et al.
(författare)
-
Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : a horizon scan
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 2059-4798. ; 4, s. 1-20
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary: We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.Technical summary: A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature.Social media summary: How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
|
|
