| 1. |
- Bakx, Tristan R.M., et al.
(författare)
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The effect of spatial and temporal planning scale on the trade-off between the financial value and carbon storage in production forests
- 2023
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Ingår i: Land Use Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0264-8377 .- 1873-5754. ; 127
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Increasing carbon stock in standing forests is one of the proposed ways to mitigate climate change. However, in production forests, this typically would lead to reduced harvesting possibilities and thus reduced financial gain for the forest owners. The size of this reduction should depend on the chosen target level of the carbon stock as well as the required speed of accumulation. Furthermore, due to landscape heterogeneity, the size of the loss can be expected to vary the planning scale, often related to forest property size. Aim: This study aimed to quantify the effects of spatial and temporal planning scales on the severity of the trade-off between Net Present Value (NPV) of future timber sales and carbon storage in production forests in Southern Sweden. Methods: We used the Heureka PlanWise forest decision support system with built-in Linear Programming functionality. We created six Production Possibility Frontiers (PPF) that quantified the trade-off for the combinations of two scenarios for timing of carbon accumulation (either by 2100 or by 2100 with an intermediate target by 2045) and three spatial management scales (∼3300 ha, ∼300 ha, and ∼60 ha; 1068 stands). Results: There was a strong effect of temporal scale, with consistently lower NPV, with the same carbon stock in 2100, when the intermediate target for 2045 was applied. The effect of the spatial scale was only apparent between the smallest (50 ha) scale and the larger scales (300 and 3300 ha), with consistently lower NPV with the same carbon stock at the smallest scale. Conclusion: We conclude that both the effects of spatial management scale and temporal scale on the cost of carbon storage should be considered in relation to potential climate policies.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Bradter, Ute, et al.
(författare)
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Habitat suitability models based on opportunistic citizen science data: Evaluating forecasts from alternative methods versus an individual-based model
- 2021
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Ingår i: Diversity and Distributions. - : Wiley. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 27, s. 2397-2411
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim To evaluate the utility of opportunistic data from citizen science programmes for forecasting species distributions against forecasts with a model of individual-based population dynamics. Location Sweden. Methods We evaluated whether alternative methods for building habitat suitability models (HSMs) based on opportunistic data from citizen science programmes produced forecasts that were consistent with forecasts from two benchmark models: (1) a HSM based on data from systematic monitoring and (2) an individual-based model for spatially explicit population dynamics based on empirical demographic and movement data. We forecasted population numbers and habitat suitability for three realistic, future forest landscapes for a forest bird, the Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We ranked simulated forest landscapes with respect to their benefits to Siberian jays for each modelling method and compared the agreement of the rankings among methods. Results Forecasts based on our two benchmark models were consistent with each other and with expectations based on the species' ecology. Forecasts from logistic regression models based on opportunistic data were consistent with the benchmark models if species detections were combined with high-quality inferred absences derived via retrospective interviews with experienced "super-reporters." In contrast, forecasts with three other widely used methods were inconsistent with the benchmark models, sometimes with misleading rankings of future scenarios. Main conclusions Our critical evaluation of alternative HSMs against a spatially explicit IBM demonstrates that information on species absences critically improves forecasts of species distributions using opportunistic data from citizen science programmes. Moreover, high-quality information on species absences can be retrospectively inferred from surveys of the consistency of reporting of individual species and the identification skills of participating reporters. We recommend that citizen science projects incorporate procedures to evaluate reporting behaviour. Inferred absences may be especially useful for improving forecasts for species and regions poorly covered by systematic monitoring schemes.
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| 4. |
- De Pellegrin Llorente, Irene, et al.
(författare)
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Perceptions of uncertainty in forest planning: contrasting forest professionals? perspectives with the latest research
- 2023
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Ingår i: Canadian Journal of Forest Research. - : Canadian Science Publishing. - 0045-5067 .- 1208-6037. ; 53, s. 391-406
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many of the intrinsic facets of forest planning are surrounded by uncertainty. Decision-makers strive to improve their understanding of the sources of uncertainty and their impact on the decision-making process. However, uncertainty is rarely integrated into real-world forestry applications or into decision support tools used in forest planning problems. To identify the needs, interests, and challenges of managing uncertainty in forest planning, we interviewed forestry professionals. All the interviewees indicated the positive potential of a tool that could address some facets of uncertainty. Additionally, we conducted a review of the most recent literature on this topic to understand current hot topics and future trends that could help address realworld challenges. This study highlights the next steps to incorporate uncertainty into the decision support systems for forest planning. However, to strengthen the bond between the practical needs of forestry professionals and the theoretical approaches proposed by recent literature, more effort should be placed on defining terminology and formulating a theoretical framework for uncertainty analysis. This will provide the forestry community with a common language and typology, help increase its general understanding, and improve communication between forestry researchers, forestry professionals, and other stakeholders.
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| 5. |
- Eggers, Jeannette, et al.
(författare)
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Accounting for a Diverse Forest Ownership Structure in Projections of Forest Sustainability Indicators
- 2015
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Ingår i: Forests. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4907. ; 6, s. 4001-4033
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, we assessed the effect of a diverse ownership structure with different management strategies within and between owner categories in long-term projections of economic, ecological and social forest sustainability indicators, representing important ecosystem services, for two contrasting Swedish municipalities. This was done by comparing two scenarios: one where the diversity of management strategies was accounted for (Diverse) and one where it was not (Simple). The Diverse scenario resulted in a 14% lower total harvested volume for the 100 year period compared to the Simple scenario, which resulted in a higher growing stock and a more favorable development of the ecological indicators. The higher proportion of sparse forests and the lower proportion of clear-felled sites made the Diverse scenario more appropriate for delivering access to common outdoor recreation activities, while the Simple scenario projected more job opportunities. Differences between the scenarios were considerable already in the medium term (after 20 years of simulation). Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the variety of management strategies employed by forest owners in medium- to long-term projections of the development of forest sustainability indicators.
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| 6. |
- Eggers, Jeannette, et al.
(författare)
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Adapted forest management to improve the potential for reindeer husbandry in Northern Sweden
- 2024
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Ingår i: AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 53, s. 46-62
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In northern Sweden, improvements of grazing conditions are necessary for the continuation of traditional, natural pasture-based reindeer husbandry. Ground and tree lichen constitute the main fodder resource for reindeer during winter but have reached critically low levels. Using a forest decision support system, we prescribe adapted forest management to improve the preconditions for reindeer husbandry and compare outcomes with the continuation of current forest management. We found that adapted management increases the forest area with ground lichen habitat by 22% already within 15 years, while a continuation of current management would result in a further decrease in ground lichen. Tree lichen habitat can be retained and increased in all scenarios, which is important in a changing climate. Compared to a continuation of current practices, adapted management with significantly improved conditions for lichen resulted in a decrease in net revenues from wood production by 11-22%.
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| 7. |
- Eggers, Jeannette, et al.
(författare)
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Balancing different forest values: Evaluation of forest management scenarios in a multi-criteria decision analysis framework
- 2019
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Ingår i: Forest Policy and Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1389-9341 .- 1872-7050. ; 103, s. 55-69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Besides traditional timber production, other forest functions, such as biodiversity and recreation, have gained increasing importance during the last few decades. Demands on forests have become more diversified, thus making forest management and planning more complex. To meet these challenges, there is a growing interest in a more diversified silviculture, for which a number of different management options are available. However, it remains unclear how the various management options affect economic, ecological, and social aspects of sustainable forest management. Hence, in this study, we assess the consequences of various management options on different aspects of sustainable forest management through scenario analysis using a forestry decision support system. We evaluate 10 different forest management scenarios for two contrasting municipalities in Sweden, based on expert participation by way of a web-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. We asked experts in economic, ecological, and social forest values, as well as those in reindeer husbandry, to weigh a number of indicators in their field of expertise against each other, and to create value functions for each indicator. We then determined scenario ranking for different sets of weights for economic, ecological and social forest values. Our results indicate that current management practices are favorable for economic aspects (wood production), while a number of scenarios would be better suited to fulfill the Swedish co-equal forest policy goal of production and consideration of environmental issues, such as scenarios with longer rotation periods, a larger share of set-asides and a higher share of continuous cover forestry. These measures would be beneficial not only for ecological values, but also for social values and for reindeer husbandry. Furthermore, we found that expert participation through the web-tool was a promising alternative to physical meetings that require more commitment in terms of time and resources.
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| 8. |
- Eggers, Jeannette, et al.
(författare)
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Balancing landscape-level forest management between recreation and wood production
- 2018
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Ingår i: Urban Forestry & Urban Greening. - : Elsevier BV. - 1618-8667 .- 1610-8167. ; 33, s. 1-11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although many forested landscapes are used for both wood production and outdoor recreation, intensive forest management can negatively impact the recreational value of forests, including in Sweden, a country with rich forest resources and a strong forest industry. In Sweden, urbanization has increased the importance of, and demand for, urban and peri-urban recreational green areas such as forests. It is the responsibility of the local government - i.e., the municipalities - to provide a good living environment for its inhabitants, including recreational areas. However, most of the forest areas in Sweden are owned by private individuals and companies, which have a large degree of freedom in their forest management decisions. Municipalities can make formal agreements with forest owners to protect forests with high recreational values, but this requires financial resources, which are often scarce. Thus, tools are needed to identify the forest areas that should be prioritized for the use of forest management strategies that maintain or increase the recreational value of forests. In this study, we elaborate an approach that balances economic and recreational forest values within a forest decision support system (DSS) and test the approach for a case study area in southern Sweden. The recreation model included in the forest DSS links locational aspects, such as population density and proximity to water, with forest structure aspects, which are simulated over time under different management strategies. Our results suggest that the model could be useful for more efficient planning of the recreational potential of forests at the landscape level. The results from the case study indicate that substantial increases in the recreational value of a forest landscape can be achieved with relatively small overall economic losses, for example, by extending rotation periods in forests close to densely populated areas.
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| 9. |
- Eggers, Jeannette, et al.
(författare)
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Balancing wood production and biodiversity in intensively managed boreal forest
- 2022
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0282-7581 .- 1651-1891.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fennoscandian boreal forests are managed intensively for wood production, which has had a negative impact on biodiversity. The harvesting pressure on the forests is likely to increase in the future because wood is seen as an important resource in a bio-based economy. Thus, there is an urgent need to better describe the trade-offs between wood production and biodiversity, and to understand how these trade-offs can be alleviated by adapting forest management. Encompassing a broad range of biodiversity aspects, we studied how forest management can increase biodiversity indicators while maintaining or increasing current harvest levels. We found that there is considerable leeway for forestry to pursue multiple objectives simultaneously in Fennoscandian forest landscapes. We show that it is possible to both increase harvests and structural elements of importance for biodiversity compared to present levels in a forest landscape that is representative of conditions in boreal forests in northern Sweden. Achieving this requires a variation in management strategies at the landscape level, and an adaptation of management practices to explicitly consider and implement multiple objectives in the planning process.
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| 10. |
- Eggers, Jeannette
(författare)
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Climate change and European forests: What do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 146, s. 69-83
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation.In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level.Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty which is imperative for decision making without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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