| 1. |
- Ahlgren, Serina, et al.
(författare)
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Växtnäring till jordbruket i osäkra tider – scenarier och dokumentation från en workshop
- 2024
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Mineralgödsel är en förutsättning för dagens konventionella jordbruk och utan mineralgödsel blir det problematiskt att få fram tillräckligt med foder och livsmedel. Sverige har ingen egen produktion av mineralgödsel och försörjningen är därför helt beroende av import. Denna rapport beskriver hur växtnäring hanteras ur beredskapssynpunkt i Sverige idag, och ger också en liten inblick i hur växtnäring har hanterats i tidigare kriser och pristoppar i andra länder. Rapporten beskriver också tre olika tänkbara krisscenarier där växtnäring behöver hanteras på olika sätt för att säkerställa livsmedelsförsörjningen i Sverige. Tidsperspektivet i scenarierna är relativt kort: ett fokuserar på hur växtnäringsförsörjningen kan lösas under den kommande växtodlingssäsongen medan de andra två scenarierna fokuserar på några år framåt i tiden. Scenarierna diskuterades på en workshop med deltagare från jordbruks- och växtnäringssektorn. I rapporten redovisas diskussionerna från workshopen. Under workshopen lyftes några brister i dagens system och förslag på vilket stöd och långsiktiga förändringar som behövs, för att säkra tillgången på växtnäring i Sverige under en kris: • I vardagen finns det ingen nationell eller regional planering av den svenska primärproduktionen och fördelningen av mineralgödsel eller andra insatsvaror till olika verksamheter, utan allt sköts av marknaden. Det finns därför ingen ansvarig offentlig aktör som har helhetsansvar för området. Vid en allvarlig brist på mineralgödsel kan det behövas någon som kliver in, säkrar leveranser och tar beslut om prioriteringar till olika verksamheter och eventuellt styrning av vem som odlar vad. Det kan även behövas någon som ansvarar för förebyggande arbete. • En trygg och resilient försörjning av växtnäring kommer att kräva en mångfald av lösningar. Dessa kräver i varierande grad samordning mellan marknadsaktörer och myndigheter. Vissa kan också kräva ny lagstiftning. Ett ”Gödselmedelskabinett” med ansvar att ta fram en strategi föreslogs. • Lagstiftning bör justeras alternativt införas för att utöka möjligheterna till miljö- och hälsomässigt säker återvinning av resurser från restflöden. Sådana ändringar skulle kunna förberedas redan nu, så att de snabbt kan träda i kraft i händelse av kris eller krig. • Sverige bör utveckla gemensamma strategier och avtal med andra länder, främst inom Norden, till exempel en nordisk strategi för växtnäringsfrågor.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Billen, Gilles, et al.
(författare)
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Reshaping the European agro-food system and closing its nitrogen cycle: The potential of combining dietary change, agroecology, and circularity
- 2021
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3322 .- 2590-3330. ; 4:6, s. 839-850
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- After World War II, the evolution of Europe's agro-food system has been marked by intensified use of synthetic fertilizers, territorial specialization, and integration in global food and feed markets. This evolution led to increased nitrogen (N) losses to aquatic environments and the atmosphere, which, despite increasing environmental regulations, continues to harm ecosystems and human well-being. Here, we explore how these N losses can be drastically reduced in a scenario synergistically operating three levers: (1) a dietary change toward less animal products and an efficient recycling of human excreta; (2) the generalization of region-specific organic crop rotation systems involving N2-fixing legumes, making it possible to do without synthetic N fertilizers; and (3) the reconnection of livestock with cropping systems allowing optimal use of manure. This scenario demonstrates the possibility to feed the projected European population in 2050 without imports of feed and with half the current level of environmental N losses.
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| 4. |
- Einarsson, Rasmus
(författare)
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A global FAOSTAT reference database of cropland nutrient budgets and nutrient use efficiency (1961–2020): nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium
- 2024
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 16, s. 525–541-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nutrient budgets help to identify the excess or insufficient use of fertilizers and other nutrient sources in agriculture. They allow for the calculation of indicators, such as the nutrient balance (surplus if positive or deficit if negative) and nutrient use efficiency, that help to monitor agricultural productivity and sustainability across the world. We present a global database of country-level budget estimates for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) on cropland. The database, disseminated in FAOSTAT, is meant to provide a global reference, synthesizing and continuously updating the state of the art on this topic. The database covers 205 countries and territories, as well as regional and global aggregates, for the period from 1961 to 2020. Results highlight the wide range in nutrient use and nutrient use efficiencies across geographic regions, nutrients, and time. The average N balance on global cropland has remained fairly steady at about 50–55 kg ha−1 yr−1 during the past 15 years, despite increasing N inputs. Regional trends, however, show recent average N surpluses that range from a low of about 10 kg N ha−1 yr−1 in Africa to more than 90 kg N ha−1 yr−1 in Asia. Encouragingly, average global cropland N use efficiency decreased from about 59 % in 1961 to a low of 43 % in 1988, but it has risen since then to a level of 55 %. Phosphorus deficits are mainly found in Africa, whereas potassium deficits occur in Africa and the Americas. This study introduces improvements over previous work in relation to the key nutrient coefficients affecting nutrient budgets and nutrient use efficiency estimates, especially with respect to nutrient removal in crop products, manure nutrient content, atmospheric deposition and crop biological N fixation rates. We conclude by discussing future research directions and highlighting the need to align statistical definitions across research groups as well as to further refine plant and livestock coefficients and expand estimates to all agricultural land, including nutrient flows in meadows and pastures. Further information is available from https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.hx3ffbgkh (Ludemann et al., 2023b) as well as the FAOSTAT database (https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/ESB; FAO, 2022a) and is updated annually.
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| 5. |
- Einarsson, Rasmus, 1988
(författare)
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Agricultural nutrient budgets in Europe: data, methods, and indicators
- 2020
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Agricultural production systems feed humanity but also cause a range of adverse environmental effects, including climate change, loss of biodiversity, and pollution of air and water. A main cause of these effects is the emissions of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) that occur as a side effect of nutrient cycling in agriculture. One of the things that is needed to mitigate N and P pollution is a quantitative understanding of N and P flows in agricultural systems. A common tool for this is the nutrient budget. A nutrient budget quantifies inputs and outputs of nutrients in a system and can be used to understand how the system functions as well as to calculate quantitative environmental indicators for farms, regions, or products. This thesis aims to explore and expand the limits of how agricultural N and P budgets can be used to support environmental research and decision-making, focusing on European agriculture. To this end, the thesis looks into two broad research questions: (1) What are the limits to the accuracy and level of detail that can be attained in N and P budgets of European agricultural systems? (2) How are present and proposed uses of agricultural N and P budgets and derived indicators limited by (a) the inherent property that agricultural nutrient budgets do not account for environmental impacts, and (b) by uncertainties and lack of data in the estimation of nutrient budgets? This thesis builds on five appended research papers that explore various aspects of data sources, uncertainties, and possible uses of N and P budgets in Europe. International and national data sources are scrutinized and used to estimate N and P budgets. Novel ways to combine existing data sources are explored. The use of nutrient budgets with various system boundaries, with different degrees of spatial resolution, and in different time periods is discussed, emphasizing that the best approach is not only a question of data supply but also of intended audience and purpose.
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| 6. |
- Einarsson, Rasmus, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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Analyzing key constraints to biogas production from crop residues and manure in the EU - A spatially explicit model
- 2017
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203 .- 1932-6203. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a spatially explicit method for making regional estimates of the potential for biogas production from crop residues and manure, accounting for key technical, biochemical, environmental and economic constraints. Methods for making such estimates are important as biofuels from agricultural residues are receiving increasing policy support from the EU and major biogas producers, such as Germany and Italy, in response to concerns over unintended negative environmental and social impacts of conventional biofuels. This analysis comprises a spatially explicit estimate of crop residue and manure production for the EU at 250 m resolution, and a biogas production model accounting for local constraints such as the sustainable removal of residues, transportation of substrates, and the substrates' biochemical suitability for anaerobic digestion. In our base scenario, the EU biogas production potential from crop residues and manure is about 0.7 EJ/year, nearly double the current EU production of biogas from agricultural substrates, most of which does not come from residues or manure. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the potential could easily be 50% higher or lower, depending on the stringency of economic, technical and biochemical constraints. We find that the potential is particularly sensitive to constraints on the substrate mixtures' carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and dry matter concentration. Hence, the potential to produce biogas from crop residues and manure in the EU depends to large extent on the possibility to overcome the challenges associated with these substrates, either by complementing them with suitable co-substrates (e.g. household waste and energy crops), or through further development of biogas technology (e.g. pretreatment of substrates and recirculation of effluent).
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| 7. |
- Einarsson, Rasmus
(författare)
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Assessing nitrate groundwater hotspots in Europe reveals an inadequate designation of Nitrate Vulnerable Zones
- 2024
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Ingår i: Chemosphere. - 0045-6535 .- 1879-1298. ; 355
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Monitoring networks show that the European Union Nitrates Directive (ND) has had mixed success in reducing nitrate concentrations in groundwater. By combining machine learning and monitored nitrate concentrations (1992–2019), we estimate the total area of nitrate hotspots in Europe to be 401,000 km2, with 47% occurring outside of Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZs). We also found contrasting increasing or decreasing trends, varying per country and time periods. We estimate that only 5% of the 122,000 km2 of hotspots in 2019 will meet nitrate quality standards by 2040 and that these may be offset by the appearance of new hotspots. Our results reveal that the effectiveness of the ND is limited by both time-lags between the implementation of good practices and pollution reduction and an inadequate designation of NVZs. Substantial improvements in the designation and regulation of NVZs are necessary, as well as in the quality of monitoring stations in terms of spatial density and information available concerning sampling depth, if the objectives of EU legislation to protect groundwater are to be achieved.
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| 8. |
- Einarsson, Rasmus, 1988
(författare)
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Assessing reactive nitrogen flows in European agricultural systems
- 2017
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In most ecosystems, nitrogen is a scarce and growth-limiting nutrient. Natural and anthropogenic processes convert unreactive atmospheric dinitrogen (N2) into reactive, bioavailable, nitrogen. This conversion occurs mainly through biological nitrogen fixation (BNF), industrial ammonia (NH3) synthesis, and oxidation of N2 into nitrogen oxides (NOx) during combustion of fossil fuels. The rate of anthropogenic conversion of N2 into reactive nitrogen has increased dramatically in the last century and today roughly equals the rate of all natural processes combined. The most important benefit is that NH3-derived fertilizer and BNF improve crop yields in agriculture. However, anthropogenic activities have also increased the turnover of reactive nitrogen in the environment, with unintended consequences for human well-being and ecosystem functioning. NOx and NH3 in the atmosphere contribute to smog and related health problems. Emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) contribute to global warming. Nitrogen fertilizes and acidifies terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, sometimes with dramatic effects on biodiversity.This thesis makes two types of contributions to the understanding of reactive nitrogen flows in European agricultural systems. First, it estimates and analyzes nitrogen flows with a special focus on livestock production and on uncertainties in agricultural nitrogen budgets, with results that can be used to assess the effects of potential changes to the food system. A comparison of organic and conventional milk production systems shows that organic milk is likely associated with less nitrogen losses to the environment, but this conclusion may change with improved BNF estimates. Second, the thesis analyzes and discusses three quantitative indicators to assess nitrogen losses associated with food products or production systems, with focus on system boundaries, uncertainties and environmental relevance. The indicators have limited environmental relevance since they aggregate nitrogen flows over time, space, and of different chemical forms. This analysis contributes to the understanding of how nitrogen indicators can be used for research and communication with the public and policy-makers.
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| 9. |
- Einarsson, Rasmus
(författare)
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Beyond the Farm to Fork Strategy: Methodology for designing a European agro-ecological future
- 2024
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 908
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The publication of the European Commission's Farm to Fork Strategy has sparked a heated debate between those who advocate the intensification of agriculture in the name of food security and those who recommend its de-intensification for environmental reasons. The design of quantified scenarios is a key approach to objectively evaluate the arguments of the two sides. To this end, we used the accounting methodology GRAFS (Generalized Representation of Agri-Food Systems) to describe the agri-food system of Europe divided into 127 geographical units of similar agricultural area, in terms of nitrogen (N) fluxes across cropland, grassland, livestock, and human consumption. This analysis reveals, in current European agriculture, a high level of territorial specialization, a strong dependence on long distance trade, and environmental N losses amounting to about 14 TgN/yr, i.e. nearly 70 % of the annual N input (including N synthetic fertilizers, symbiotic N fixation, oxidized N deposition and import of food and feed). Based on the analysis of the yield-fertilization relationship of cropping systems at the scale of their full rotation cycle, and on a simplified model of livestock ingestion, excretion and production, we advanced the GRAFS methodology for prospective scenario design. Three scenarios for the European agri-food system were explored for 2050: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, a scenario based on the measures considered by the EU Farm to Fork Strategy (F2F), and a fully agro-ecological scenario (AE). The results show that the F2F scenario reduces the dependence of Europe on imports of synthetic fertilizers and feed resources by 40 % as well as the environmental N losses by 30 %, but not to the level of its claimed ambitions as N lost to the environment still amounts to about 10 TgN/yr, i.e. 67 % of N inputs. Of the three scenarios studied, only in the AE scenario, involving the relocation of feed production, the generalization of organic crop rotations with N fixing legume crops, and a shift of agricultural production and food consumption toward less animal-based products, would Europe be able to dispense with N imports, still being able to export some cereals, meat, and milk products to the rest of the world, while halving today's reactive N emissions to the environment.
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| 10. |
- Einarsson, Rasmus, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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Crop production and nitrogen use in European cropland and grassland 1961–2019
- 2021
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Ingår i: Scientific data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 8:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents EuropeAgriDB v1.0, a dataset of crop production and nitrogen (N) flows in European cropland 1961–2019. The dataset covers 26 present-day countries, detailing the cropland N harvests in 17 crop categories as well as cropland N inputs in synthetic fertilizers, manure, symbiotic fixation, and atmospheric deposition. The study builds on established methods but goes beyond previous research by combining data from FAOSTAT, Eurostat, and a range of national data sources. The result is a detailed, complete, and consistent dataset, intended as a basis for further analyses of past and present agricultural production patterns, as well as construction of scenarios for the future.
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