| 1. |
- Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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Cost Analysis of Driverless Truck Operations
- 2020
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Record. - : SAGE Publications. - 0361-1981 .- 2169-4052.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Road freight transport is believed by many to be the first transport domain in which driverless (DL) vehicles will have a significant impact. However, in current literature almost no attention has been given to how the diffusion of DL trucks might occur and how it might affect the transport system. To make predictions on the market uptake and to model impacts of DL truck deployment, valid cost estimates of DL truck operations are crucial. In this paper, an analysis of costs and cost structures for DL truck operations, including indicative numerical cost estimates, is presented. The total cost of ownership for DL trucks compared with that for manually driven (MD) trucks has been analyzed for four different truck types (16-, 24-, 40-, and 64-ton trucks), for three scenarios reflecting pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic assumptions on economic impacts of driving automation based on current literature. The results indicate that DL trucks may enable substantial cost savings compared with the MD truck baseline. In the base (intermediate) scenario, costs per 1,000 ton-kilometer decrease by 45%, 37%, 33%, and 29% for 16-, 24-, 40-, and 60-ton trucks, respectively. The findings confirm the established view in the literature that freight transport is a highly attractive area for DL vehicles because of the potential economic benefits.
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| 2. |
- Engholm, Albin, 1991-
(författare)
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Driverless trucks in the Swedish freight transport system : An analysis of future impacts on the transport system and the emerging innovation system
- 2021
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A large-scale introduction of driverless trucks could start taking place during the next decade. While this could bring several economic benefits for freight transport actors and society, it may also change the freight transport system and exacerbate the negative effects of road transport. This thesis aims to increase the understanding of how an introduction of driverless trucks could materialize and impact the freight transport system in Sweden. Two overarching issues are addressed. The first is how freight transport patterns will change due to the impacts of driverless trucks on road transport supply. This is addressed in Paper 1 and Paper 2. The second issue, which is studied in Paper 3, is what factors are shaping the ongoing development towards an introduction of driverless trucks in Sweden. In Paper 1, the impact of driverless trucks on the costs for long-distance road freight transport is studied through a total cost of ownership analysis which shows that driverless trucks could enable cost reductions of around 30%-40% per ton-kilometer. A key determinant of the cost reduction is to what extent reduced driver costs will be offset by other forms of human labor that may be required for driverless truck operations. Other factors, including changes to the truck acquisition cost, have marginal importance. The cost-saving potential provides a strong motivation for freight transport actors to develop and adopt driverless trucks. In Paper 2, the impacts of driverless trucks on road transport demand, utilization of different truck types, modal split, and total logistics costs are studied by using the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods. Two scenario types are studied, one in which driverless trucks substitute manually driven trucks and one where driverless trucks capable of operating between logistics hubs are introduced as a complement to manually driven trucks. The analysis shows that in both scenarios, driverless trucks could reduce total costs for Swedish freight transport in the range of billions of SEK per year. Road transport demand and truck traffic volumes may increase significantly through modal shifts from rail and sea. This could lead to increased societal costs through, for instance, increased CO2 emissions and congestion which are, however, not quantified in the study. In Paper 3, an analysis of the innovation system of driverless trucks based on an interview study with actors involved in the development and introduction of driverless trucks in Sweden is presented. The findings suggest that there are several favorable factors for a successful introduction of driverless trucks, but also that the innovation system is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty related to what infrastructure will be required and available, what business models will be emerging, and which actors will be able to capitalize on the development and which actors that become marginalized in a future with driverless trucks. The findings from this thesis can be of interest for policymakers since it highlights potential benefits and challenges associated with driverless trucks from a transport-system perspective and the provided indicative quantitative estimates on system-level impacts offer a glimpse into a future freight transport system with driverless trucks. Also, the thesis highlights critical challenges for the innovation system of driverless trucks which could guide efforts to improve its performance.
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| 3. |
- Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring cost performance tradeoffs and uncertainties for electric- and autonomous electric trucks using computational experiments
- 2024
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Ingår i: European Transport Research Review. - : Springer Nature. - 1867-0717 .- 1866-8887. ; 16:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recent development of battery electric trucks (BETs) suggests that they could play a vital role in transitioning to zero-emission road freight. To facilitate this transition, it is important to understand under which conditions BETs can be a viable alternative to internal combustion engine trucks (ICETs). Concurrently, the advancement of autonomous driving technology adds uncertainty and complexity to analyzing how the cost competitiveness of future zero-emissions trucks, such as autonomous electric trucks (AETs) may develop. This study examines the cost performance of BETs and AETs compared to ICETs, and how it varies over different market and technology conditions, charging strategies, and transport applications. Focus is on heavy-duty tractor-trailer trucks operating full truckload shuttle-flows in Sweden. Due to the inherent uncertainty and interactions among the analyzed factors, the analysis is performed as computational experiments using a simulation model of BET, AET, and ICET shuttle flow operations and associated costs. In total, 19,200 experiments are performed by sampling the model across 1200 scenarios representing various transport applications and technical and economic conditions for sixteen charging strategies with different combinations of depot, destination, and en route charging. The results indicate that both BETs and AETs are cost competitive compared to ICETs in a large share of scenarios. High asset utilization is important for offsetting additional investment costs in vehicles and chargers, highlighting the importance of deploying these vehicles in applications that enable high productivity. The cost performance for BETs is primarily influenced by energy related costs, charging strategy, and charging infrastructure utilization. The AET cost performance is in addition heavily affected by remote operations cost, and costs for the automated driving system. When feasible, relying only on depot charging is in many scenarios the most cost-effective charging strategy, with the primary exceptions being highly energy-demanding scenarios with long distances and heavy goods in which the required battery is too heavy to operate the truck within vehicle weight regulations if not complemented by destination, or en route charging. However, many experiments do not lead to a reduced payload capacity for BETs and AETs compared to ICETs, and a large majority of the considered scenarios are feasible to operate with a BET or AET within current gross vehicle weight regulations.
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| 4. |
- Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of Large-Scale Driverless Truck Adoption on the Freight Transport System
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Driverless trucks could potentially lead to a significant reduction in road freight transport costs and thereby change the freight transport system. In this paper, a method to study the impacts of large-scale adoption of driverless trucks on transport systems is presented and applied to the Swedish freight transport system. An analysis of the impacts on transport patterns and system costs, considering all transport modes, is performed. The method is based on extending the application domain of the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods to two types of driverless truck scenarios.The first scenario represents a full adoption of driverless trucks that can operate the complete road network. The results show that there is an increase in road transport tonne-kilometers on Swedish territory by 22% and vehicle kilometers traveled by trucks increase by 35%, compared to a baseline scenario without driverless trucks. The annual total transport system costs decrease by 1.7 B€.In the second scenario, the current fleet of manually driven trucks is complemented by driverless trucks that can operate between logistics hubs, but not in complex traffic environments like urban areas due to a limited operational design domain. This may be an initial use-case for driverless trucks operating on public roads. In this scenario, road tonne-kilometers increase by 11%, truck vehicle kilometers increase by 15%, and annual total transport system costs decrease by 1.2 B€ compared to the baseline.For both scenarios, the impacts of driverless trucks vary significantly across commodity types and transport distances which suggest heterogeneity of benefits of automated driving between different types of freight flows. A sensitivity analysis is performed for the level of cost reduction of driverless trucks compared to manually driven trucks for both scenarios. For the second scenario, also which sections of the road network that driverless trucks can operate are varied. The magnitude of system impacts are for both scenarios highly dependent on the cost level of driverless trucks and it is crucial to enable driverless trucks for international, cross-border transport to achieve economic benefits on a system-level.Driverless trucks may also have significant societal costs due to potential infrastructure investments and from negative externalities such as increasing CO2 emissions and congestion. These are important topics for future research. Finally, the even more road-dominant transport system resulting from an introduction of driverless trucks strengthens the need to decarbonize road transport to meet non-negotiable climate targets.
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| 5. |
- Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of large-scale driverless truck adoption on the freight transport system
- 2021
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 154, s. 227-254
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents an analysis of the potential impacts of large-scale adoption of driverless trucks on transport patterns and system costs for a national freight transport system with Sweden as a case study. The analysis is performed by extending the application domain of the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods to analyze two types of driverless truck scenarios. The first scenario represents a full adoption of driverless trucks that can operate the complete road network and thereby substitute manually driven trucks. In this scenario, road transport tonne-kilometers on Swedish territory increase by 22%, vehicle kilometers traveled by trucks increase by 35% and annual total system costs decrease by 1.7 B(sic) compared to a baseline scenario without driverless trucks. In the second scenario, the current fleet of manually driven trucks is complemented by driverless trucks that can operate on major roads between logistics hubs, but not in complex traffic environments like urban areas due to a limited operational design domain. This may be an initial use-case for driverless trucks operating on public roads. In this scenario, road tonne-kilometers increase by 11%, truck vehicle kilometers traveled increase by 15%, and annual total system costs decrease by 1.2 B_ compared to the baseline. For both scenarios, the impacts of driverless trucks vary significantly between commodity types and transport distances which suggests heterogeneity of benefits of automated driving between different types of freight flows. A sensitivity analysis is performed in which the costs for driverless truck operations is varied, and for the second scenario, also which parts of the road network that driverless trucks can operate are varied. This analysis indicates that the magnitude of impacts is highly dependent on the cost level of driverless trucks and that the ability for DL-trucks to perform international, cross-border transport is crucial for achieving reductions in system costs. An overarching conclusion of the study is that driverless trucks may lead to a significant increase in road transport demand due to modal shifts from rail and sea as a result of the improved cost performance of road transport. This would further strengthen the need to decarbonize road transport to meet non-negotiable climate targets. Important topics for future research include assessing potential societal costs related to driverless trucks due to infrastructure investments and negative externalities such as increasing CO2 emissions and congestion.
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| 6. |
- Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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Is the driverless future sustainable? : Strategic uncertainties and system impacts
- 2019
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Future sustainability impacts of driverless vehicles are subject to significant uncertainty which arise from complex systemic interactions within the transportation system and parallel social trends influencing transportation. One approach used to holistically address impacts of driverless vehicles is societal scenarios which capture and problematize the complex interactions. However, they are speculative in their nature and sensitive to the pre-conceptions and knowledge of the experts developing the scenarios. In this paper, multiple scenarios developed in several different studies are compared to create a deeper and broader understanding of system impacts of driverless vehicles and the future society with driverless vehicles than what is achieved through individual scenario studies. The findings show that there are four strategic uncertainties shaping the development: the role of the public and private sector, policy making for driverless vehicles, the impact of the sharing economy and the pace of driverless technology development. Most of the studied scenarios report higher traffic volumes than today. Impacts on social equity and the role of public transport vary significantly between the scenarios. Furthermore, the scenario studies expect the sharing economy to be an enabler to curb growth in travel volumes which is important if climate goals for transportation should be possible to meet. Further research efforts should address impacts of driverless vehicles in more systematic forms than societal scenarios but with wider system delimitations than in existing simulation studies.
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| 7. |
- Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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MUST Managing Deep Uncertainty in Planning for Sustainable Transport : Project report: phase 1
- 2024
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- There is a growing recognition that traditional forecasting and decision-making approaches might fall short considering the many uncertainties and complexities facing the development of the transport system. The project Managing deep Uncertainty in planning for Sustainable Transport (MUST), funded by Trafikverket and conducted by KTH ITRL and VTI, aims to explore emerging methods for improving the handling of deep uncertainty in the long-term planning of future transport systems. The core of MUST is to explore, develop, and demonstrate tools and methods grounded in Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA). These approaches are intended to support a shift towards more robust and adaptable planning methodologies.The project is performed in two phases, with the first phase dedicated to laying a foundational understanding of deep uncertainty in transport planning. This report covers the first phase which has included the following tasks: A literature review on deep uncertainty and existing decision-making and system analysis methods under such conditions, with a focus on transportation. A workshop series with Trafikverket identifying transport planning challenges marked by deep uncertainty.A case study of applying DMDU through a case study on climate policy robustness (primarily reported in other deliverables).The literature review covers how the nature of uncertainty in socio-technical systems can be understood, classified, and analyzed. For policy analysis and decision making, the literature underscores the importance of considering multiple futures in model-based analysis when faced with deep uncertainties. DMDU and EMA methods are reviewed and summarized, and their application to transport are discussed. The literature also summarizes studies on uncertainty in model-based transport planning and policy analysis and concludes that the primary location of deep uncertainty is in the model inputs in the form of “scenario uncertainty”. In the workshop series, uncertainty related to producing the base forecast (Swe: basprognos) and policy analysis for domestic transport climate policy was analyzed. This analysis suggested that scenario uncertainty is a main source of deep uncertainty, but also uncertainty related to the system boundaries where highlighted. Furthermore, potential benefits and drawbacks of EMA and DMDU were discussed. In the case study, it is explored how the Scenario tool can be further leveraged by DMDU. More specifically, MORDM (see Section 2.2.3) is applied to assess to what extent it may allow a broader set of policy options to be explored, and how it can provide a better understanding of the robustness and vulnerabilities of different types of policies. A key takeaway from MUST phase 1 is that DMDU and EMA could provide several potential benefits and that methods and tools for applying them are maturing. However, it is possibly a long way to go before DMDU and EMA can be integrated as a regularly used method during the planning process. This is due to organization and process-related issues, as well as technical issues on how to effectively apply DMDU and EMA to Trafikverket’s national transport models. These technical issues will partly be explored in MUST phase 2.
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| 8. |
- Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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System-level impacts of self-driving vehicles : terminology, impact frameworks and existing literature syntheses
- 2018
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The intention with this report is to contribute toward the development of systemic and holistic studies of impacts of self-driving vehicles. The report is targeting system-level impacts of self-driving vehicles on the transportation system but also wider societal impacts on factors such as: land-use, public health, energy and emissions, etc. This report is complimentary to two papers that are focused on in-depth literature review of simulation studies (Pernestål Brenden and Kristoffersson 2018) and future scenario studies of impacts of self-driving vehicles (Engholm, Kristoffersson, and Pernestål Brenden 2018).The first aim of the report is to summarize knowledge to enable future design of a high-level conceptual framework for impacts from self-driving vehicles from a systems perspective. The second aim is to summarize knowledge on impacts from self-driving vehicles in a selection of the available literature. The main contributions of the report are the following:A terminology for different types of automated vehicles, connected vehicles and mobility concepts for automated vehicles is presentedFrameworks for classifying system-level impacts from SDVs in the existing literature are summarized and analyzedExisting literature studies on system-level impacts from SDVs are synthesized and common themes and gaps in current research are analyzedThe terminology proposed in this report distinguishes between different types of automated and connected vehicles and is primarily intended as a tool to enable stringent analysis in this report when analyzing literature that apply different terminologies. Two frameworks for classifying system-level impacts are identified and compared. The analysis of the frameworks covers their scope, specification of mechanisms generating system impacts and briefly reviews their applicability as a starting point for developing a systems model of impacts from self-driving vehicles. The review of existing literature syntheses shows that there is a large variation in availability on literature for different system impacts. Impacts on road safety, road capacity and vehicle ownership forms are well studied. Examples of less studied impacts are costs of ownership, public health, infrastructure, air pollution and accessibility. The review identifies several contractionary mechanisms and effects that can affect various system-level impacts. The results of the review highlight the need to approach impact assessments of self-driving vehicles from a systemic and holistic point of view.
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| 9. |
- Engholm, Albin, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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The emerging technological innovation system of driverless trucks
- 2020
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Procedia. - : Elsevier BV. - 2352-1465. ; , s. 145-149
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Driving automation technology is attractive for the road freight transport sector since driverless trucks (DL-trucks) may drastically reduce driver costs, increase truck utilization and improve road safety. Although DL-trucks may bring significant impacts to the transport system, research on the future diffusion and impacts of DL-trucks is scarce compared to passenger transport. In this paper the sociotechnical innovation system developing, diffusing and utilizing DL-trucks in Sweden is analyzed based on the technological innovation systems (TIS) framework. The analysis is based on 20 expert interviews with a total of 23 representatives from 16 actors in the DL-truck TIS in Sweden. The TIS analysis shows that there are significant uncertainties in the timeline, operational capabilities, infrastructure requirements and regulative landscape for a widespread DL-truck deployment. There is a general view among the interviewees that DL-trucks is an important opportunity for Swedish industry and the economy. From a transport system perspective, DL-trucks are expected to bring sustainability benefits but it remains uncertain whether these benefits will be realized and what the negative side effects might be. The development of DL-trucks is heavily influenced by incumbent firms in the truck manufacturing industry but new actors from the telecom sector, energy sector and emerging truck technology companies are entering the area and shaping the development. The current relatively rigid institutions for truck manufacturing and road freight transport will require significant alignment to adapt to DL-truck operations in areas such as laws and regulations, business models and operational practices. The value chain of road freight transport may be disrupted as some of the current key actors, for instance traditional road carriers, could become less relevant in future DL-truck value chains. A critical uncertainty is how and by which actors the setting of requirements, deployment and financing of digital infrastructure for DL-trucks will be done.
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| 10. |
- Nordström, Maria, et al.
(författare)
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The complexity of value of travel time for self-driving vehicles – a morphological analysis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Transportation planning and technology (Print). - : Informa UK Limited. - 0308-1060 .- 1029-0354. ; 44:4, s. 400-417
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding the value of travel time for mobility concepts based on self-driving vehicles is crucial to accurately value transport investments and predict future travel patterns. In this paper, we carry out a morphological analysis to illustrate the diversity of mobility concepts based on self-driving vehicles and the complexity of determining the value of travel time for such concepts. We consider four categories of parameters that directly or indirectly impact the value of travel time: (i) vehicle characteristics, (ii) operating principles, (iii) journey characteristics and (iv) traveler characteristics. The parameters and respective attributes result in a morphological matrix that spans all possible solutions. Out of these, we analyze five plausible solutions based on the implications of the concept characteristics on the total value of travel time. We conclude by suggesting an alternative approach to differentiate value of travel time based on travel characteristics rather than the usual decomposition into transport modes.
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