| 1. |
- Börjesson, Maria, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Large increases in bus use in Sweden : Lessons learned
- 2021
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Ingår i: Handbook of Public Transport Research. - : Edward Elgar Publishing. - 9781788978668 - 9781788978651 ; , s. 434-453
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Since the turn of the century, the demand for public transport has increased by nearly 50 percent in Sweden. However, supply has increased faster than demand and the total cost has increased faster than supply, entailing increased subsidies and fares. This chapter summarizes lessons learned from the aggregate trends in Sweden, as well as experiences from some cities. Our analysis indicates that, while demand has increased substantially, the effect on car use is unclear. The occupancy rate has not been maintained outside the big cities. Comparing cities, we find that adopting a long-term and systematic focus on customer-oriented design and marketing, in combination with substantially increased supply, has achieved increased attractiveness and use, while a new super bus concept has only had a limited impact. We underscore that, when implementing public transport improvements, public transport authorities have a lot to gain from systematic data collection enabling evaluation against the objectives.
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| 2. |
- Fadaei, Masoud, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
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A Hybrid Scheme for Real-Time Prediction of Bus Trajectories
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The uncertainty associated with public transport services can be partially counteracted by developing real-time models to predict downstream service conditions. In this study, a hybrid approach for predicting bus trajectories by integrating multiple predictors is proposed. The prediction model combines schedule, instantaneous and historical data. The contribution of each predictor as well as values of respective parameters is estimated by minimizing the prediction error using a linear regression based heuristic. The hybrid method was applied to five bus lines in Stockholm, Sweden and Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that the hybrid method consistently outperforms the timetable and delay conservation prediction method for different line layouts, passenger demands and operation practices. Model validation confirms model transferability and real-time applicability. Generating more accurate predictions can help service users adjust their travel plans and service providers to deploy proactive management and control strategies to mitigate the negative effects of service disturbances.
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| 3. |
- Fadaei, Masoud, et al.
(författare)
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An empirical evaluation of measures to improve bus service reliability : Performance metrics and a case study in Stockholm
- 2015
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper evaluates the effects of implementation of a range of physical and operational measures during a pilot study on the busiest and most frequent trunk bus line in Stockholm, Sweden. Vehicle positioning and passenger counts data were analysed to evaluate the impact of the field experiment. The study has proven that the bus service performance has been improved from both passengers and operator perspectives. These measures resulted with a service that is 7% faster on average yielding a 10% decrease in passenger in-vehicle times. The faster service leads to 8 minutes shorter cycle time which could potentially cut the fleet size by 2 buses. The results demonstrate that improved regularity and less bunching leading to a 25% reduction in passengers’ waiting times due to irregularity. However, no apparent change in dwell times has been observed. We estimate that each passenger saved 2 minutes which is 10% of journey time. These time savings amount to 9 million Swedish Crowns (1.1 million USD) per year for weekday afternoon peak periods only.
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| 4. |
- Fadaei, Masoud, et al.
(författare)
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Consistently estimating link speed using sparse GPS data with measured errors
- 2014
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Ingår i: Transportation. - : Elsevier. ; , s. 829-838
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data sources using new technology such as the Geographical Positioning System are increasingly available. In many different applications, it is important to predict the average speed on all the links in a network. The purpose of this study is to estimate the link speed in a network using sparse GPS data set. Average speed is consistently estimated using Indirect Inference approach. in the end, the Monte Carlo evidence is provided to show that the results are consistent with parameter estimates.
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| 5. |
- Fadaei, Masoud, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating flexible route choice models using sparse data
- 2012
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Ingår i: Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 2012 15th International IEEE Conference on. - : IEEE conference proceedings. - 9781467330640 ; , s. 1215-1220
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- GPS and nomad devices are increasingly used to provide data from individuals in urban traffic networks. In many different applications, it is important to predict the continuation of an observed path, and also, given sparse data, predict where the individual (or vehicle) has been. Estimating the perceived cost functions is a difficult statistical estimation problem, for different reasons. First, the choice set is typically very large. Second, it may be important to take into account the correlation between the (generalized) costs of different routes, and thus allow for realistic substitution patterns. Third, due to technical or privacy considerations, the data may be temporally and spatially sparse, with only partially observed paths. Finally, the position of vehicles may have measurement errors. We address all these problems using a indirect inference approach. We demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed estimator in a model with random link costs, allowing for a natural correlation structure across paths, where the full choice set is considered.
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| 6. |
- Fadaei, Masoud, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating the impacts and benefits of public transport design and operational measures
- 2016
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Ingår i: Transport Policy. - : Elsevier. - 0967-070X .- 1879-310X.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Design and operational measures are designed and implemented to improve public transport performance and level-of-service. In the case of urban bus systems, priority, operational and control measures are aimed to elevate bus services to buses with high level of service (BHLS). Even though there is an explosive growth in design and operational measures implementation and growing research interest in investigating their impact on performance indicators, there is lack of a systematic evaluation of their benefits. We present an evaluation framework and a detail sequence of steps for quantifying the impacts of public transport design and operational measures. The effects of service performance on travel times and costs are assessed by accounting for relations between reliability and waiting times, crowding and perceived travel times, and vehicle scheduling and operational costs. The evaluation integrates the implications of reliability on generalized passenger travel costs and operational costs. We deploy the proposed evaluation framework to a field experiment in Stockholm where a series of measures were implemented on the busiest bus line. The results suggest that the total passenger and operator benefits amount to 36.8 million Swedish crowns on an annual basis. The overall assessment of the impacts of design and operational measures enables the comparison of different implementations, assess their effectiveness, prioritize alternative measures and provide a sound basis for motivating investments.
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| 7. |
- Fadaei, Masoud, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating the Performance and Benefits of Bus Priority, Operation and Control Measures
- 2016
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 95th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC..
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Preferential measures are designed and implemented to improve public transport performance and level-of-service. In the case of urban bus systems, priority, operational and control measures are aimed to elevate bus services to buses with high level of service (BHLS). Even though there is an explosive growth in preferential measures implementation and growing research interest in investigating their impact on performance indicators, there is lack of a systematic evaluation of their benefits. We present an evaluation framework and a detail sequence of steps for quantifying the impacts of public transport preferential measures. The effects of service performance on travel times and costs are assessed by accounting for relations between reliability and waiting times, crowding and perceived travel times, and vehicle scheduling and operational costs. The evaluation integrates the implications of reliability on generalized passenger travel costs and operational costs. We deploy the proposed evaluation framework to a field experiment in Stockholm where a series of measures were implemented on the busiest bus line. The results suggest that the total passenger and operator benefits amount to 47 million Swedish crowns on an annual basis. The overall assessment of the impacts of preferential measures enables the comparison of different implementations, assess their effectiveness, prioritize alternative measures and provide a sound basis for motivating investments.
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| 8. |
- Fadaei, Masoud, et al.
(författare)
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Real-Time Bus Departure Time Predictions: Vehicle Trajectory and Countdown Display Analysis
- 2014
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Ingår i: 2014 IEEE 17th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC). - : IEEE conference proceedings. - 9781479960781 ; , s. 2556-2561
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Uncertainty is an important challenge in operating bus systems. Accurate real-time predictions can therefore facilitate adaptive decision making process of both operations and passengers. This scheme should be tractable, fast and reliable to be used in real time applications. This paper presents a hybrid prediction scheme to generate real-time information concerning downstream vehicle trajectories and next bus arrival. The prediction generated by the proposed hybrid scheme integrates three travel time components: schedule, instantaneous and historical data. Genetic algorithm is applied in order to specify the contribution of each data source component to the prediction scheme. The benefits, transferability and estimation form of the proposed scheme were tested by applying it on three trunk bus lines in Stockholm, Sweden. Its performance was compared to a commonly deployed scheme. The results indicate that the proposed scheme reduces significantly the overall mean absolute error for all routes from both operators' and passengers' perspectives.
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| 9. |
- Fadaei, Masoud, et al.
(författare)
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Rolling Horizon Predictions of Bus Trajectories
- 2014
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Ingår i: OPT-i 2014 - 1st International Conference on Engineering and Applied Sciences Optimization, Proceedings. - 9789609999465 ; , s. 875-886
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bus travel times are subject to inherent and recurrent uncertainties. A real-time prediction scheme regarding how the transit system evolves will potentially facilitate more adaptive operations as well as more adaptive passengers’ decisions. This scheme should be tractable, sufficiently fast and reliable to be used in real time applications. For this purpose, a heuristic hybrid scheme for departure time estimation is proposed in this study. The prediction generated by the proposed hybrid scheme consists of three travel time components: schedule, instantaneous and historical data sources. Genetic algorithm is applied in order to specify the contribution of each data source component to the prediction scheme. The proposed scheme was applied for a trunk bus line in Stockholm, Sweden. In addition, the currently deployed scheme was replicated in order to compare the performance of both schemes. The results suggest that the proposed scheme reduces the overall mean absolute error by almost 20%. Moreover the proposed scheme provides better predictions except for very long term predictions where both schemes yield the same performance.
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| 10. |
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