| 1. |
- Chesley, Steven R., et al.
(author)
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Development of a Realistic Set of Synthetic Earth Impactor Orbits
- 2019
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In: 2019 IEEE Aerospace Conference. - : IEEE.
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a refined method for creating orbits of fictitious Earth impactors that are representative of the actual impactor population. Such orbits are crucial inputs to a variety of investigations, such as those that seek to discern how well and how early a particular asteroid survey can detect impactors, or to understand the progression of impact probability as an object is tracked after discovery. We will describe our method, which relies on Öpik's b-plane formalism, and place it in context with previous approaches. While the Öplk framework assumes the restricted three body problem with a circular Earth orbit, our final synthetic impactors are differentially corrected to ensure an impact in the N-body dynamics of the solar system. We also test the validity of the approach through brute force numerical tests, demonstrating that the properties of our synthetic impactor population are consistent with the underlying Near-Earth Object (NEO) population from which it is derived. The impactor population is, however, distinct from the NEO population, not only by virtue of the proximity of the asteroid orbit to that of the Earth, but also because low encounter velocities are strongly favored. Thus the impacting population has an increased prominence of low inclination and low eccentricity orbits, and Earth-like orbits in particular, as compared to the NEO population as a whole.
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| 2. |
- Farnocchia, Davide, et al.
(author)
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(523599) 2003 RM: The Asteroid that Wanted to be a Comet
- 2023
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In: The Planetary Science Journal. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 2632-3338. ; 4:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report a statistically significant detection of nongravitational acceleration on the subkilometer near-Earth asteroid (523599) 2003 RM. Due to its orbit, 2003 RM experiences favorable observing apparitions every 5 yr. Thus, since its discovery, 2003 RM has been extensively tracked with ground-based optical facilities in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018. We find that the observed plane-of-sky positions cannot be explained with a purely gravity-driven trajectory. Including a transverse nongravitational acceleration allows us to match all observational data, but its magnitude is inconsistent with perturbations typical of asteroids such as the Yarkovsky effect or solar radiation pressure. After ruling out that the orbital deviations are due to a close approach or collision with another asteroid, we hypothesize that this anomalous acceleration is caused by unseen cometary outgassing. A detailed search for evidence of cometary activity with archival and deep observations from the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System and the Very Large Telescope does not reveal any detectable dust production. However, the best-fitting H2O sublimation model allows for brightening due to activity consistent with the scatter of the data. We estimate the production rate required for H2O outgassing to power the acceleration and find that, assuming a diameter of 300 m, 2003 RM would require Q(H2O) similar to 10(23) molec s(-1) at perihelion. We investigate the recent dynamical history of 2003 RM and find that the object most likely originated in the mid-to-outer main belt (similar to 86% probability) as opposed to from the Jupiter-family comet region (similar to 11% probability). Further observations, especially in the infrared, could shed light on the nature of this anomalous acceleration.
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| 3. |
- Farnocchia, Davide, et al.
(author)
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International Asteroid Warning Network Timing Campaign: 2019 XS
- 2022
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In: The Planetary Science Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 2632-3338. ; 3:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- As part of the International Asteroid Warning Network's observational exercises, we conducted a campaign to observe near-Earth asteroid 2019 XS around its close approach to Earth on 2021 November 9. The goal of the campaign was to characterize errors in the observation times reported to the Minor Planet Center, which become an increasingly important consideration as astrometric accuracy improves and more fast-moving asteroids are observed. As part of the exercise, a total of 957 astrometric observations of 2019 XS during the encounter were reported and subsequently were analyzed to obtain the corresponding residuals. While the timing errors are typically smaller than 1 s, the reported times appear to be negatively biased, i.e., they are generally earlier than they should be. We also compared the observer-provided position uncertainty with the cross-track residuals, which are independent of timing errors. A large fraction of the estimated uncertainties appear to be optimistic, especially when <0 2. We compiled individual reports for each observer to help identify and remove the root cause of any possible timing error and improve the uncertainty quantification process. We suggest possible sources of timing errors and describe a simple procedure to derive reliable, conservative position uncertainties.
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| 4. |
- Farnocchia, Davide, et al.
(author)
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The Second International Asteroid Warning Network Timing Campaign: 2005 LW3
- 2023
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In: The Planetary Science Journal. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 2632-3338. ; 4:11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Earth close approach of near-Earth asteroid 2005 LW3 on 2022 November 23 represented a good opportunity for a second observing campaign to test the timing accuracy of astrometric observation. With 82 participating stations, the International Asteroid Warning Network collected 1046 observations of 2005 LW3 around the time of the close approach. Compared to the previous timing campaign targeting 2019 XS, some individual observers were able to significantly improve the accuracy of their reported observation times. In particular, U.S. surveys achieved good timing performance. However, no broad, systematic improvement was achieved compared to the previous campaign, with an overall negative bias persisting among the different observers. The calibration of observing times and the mitigation of timing errors should be important future considerations for observers and orbit computers, respectively.
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| 5. |
- Fedorets, Grigori, et al.
(author)
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Establishing Earth's Minimoon Population through Characterization of Asteroid 2020 CD3
- 2020
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In: Astronomical Journal. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 0004-6256 .- 1538-3881. ; 160:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report on our detailed characterization of Earth's second known temporary natural satellite, or minimoon, asteroid 2020 CD3. An artificial origin can be ruled out based on its area-to-mass ratio and broadband photometry, which suggest that it is a silicate asteroid belonging to the S or V complex in asteroid taxonomy. The discovery of 2020 CD3 allows for the first time a comparison between known minimoons and theoretical models of their expected physical and dynamical properties. The estimated diameter of (+0.4, -0.2) m and geocentric capture approximately a decade after the first known minimoon, 2006 RH120, are in agreement with theoretical predictions. The capture duration of 2020 CD3 of at least 2.7 yr is unexpectedly long compared to the simulation average, but it is in agreement with simulated minimoons that have close lunar encounters, providing additional support for the orbital models. 2020 CD3's atypical rotation period, significantly longer than theoretical predictions, suggests that our understanding of meter-scale asteroids needs revision. More discoveries and a detailed characterization of the population can be expected with the forthcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.
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| 6. |
- Jenniskens, Peter, et al.
(author)
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The impact and recovery of asteroid 2018 LA
- 2021
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In: Meteoritics and Planetary Science. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1086-9379 .- 1945-5100. ; 56:4, s. 844-893
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The June 2, 2018 impact of asteroid 2018 LA over Botswana is only the second asteroid detected in space prior to impacting over land. Here, we report on the successful recovery of meteorites. Additional astrometric data refine the approach orbit and define the spin period and shape of the asteroid. Video observations of the fireball constrain the asteroid's position in its orbit and were used to triangulate the location of the fireball's main flare over the Central Kalahari Game Reserve. Twenty‐three meteorites were recovered. A consortium study of eight of these classifies Motopi Pan as an HED polymict breccia derived from howardite, cumulate and basaltic eucrite, and diogenite lithologies. Before impact, 2018 LA was a solid rock of ~156 cm diameter with high bulk density ~2.85 g cm−3, a relatively low albedo pV ~ 0.25, no significant opposition effect on the asteroid brightness, and an impact kinetic energy of ~0.2 kt. The orbit of 2018 LA is consistent with an origin at Vesta (or its Vestoids) and delivery into an Earth‐impacting orbit via the ν6 resonance. The impact that ejected 2018 LA in an orbit toward Earth occurred 22.8 ± 3.8 Ma ago. Zircons record a concordant U‐Pb age of 4563 ± 11 Ma and a consistent 207Pb/206Pb age of 4563 ± 6 Ma. A much younger Pb‐Pb phosphate resetting age of 4234 ± 41 Ma was found. From this impact chronology, we discuss what is the possible source crater of Motopi Pan and the age of Vesta's Veneneia impact basin.
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