| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Alvarez-Rodríguez, Manuel, et al.
(författare)
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The addition of heat shock protein HSPA8 to cryoprotective media improves the survival of brown bear (Ursus arctos) spermatozoa during chilling and after cryopreservation.
- 2013
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Ingår i: Theriogenology. - : Elsevier. - 0093-691X .- 1879-3231. ; 79:3, s. 541-550
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Cantabrian brown bear survives as a small remnant population in northern Spain and semen cryopreservation for future artificial insemination is one of the measures being implemented for conservation of this species. As part of this program we investigated the value of adding heat shock protein A8 (HSPA8) to media (N-[Tris(hydroxymethyl)methyl]-2-aminoethanesulfonic acid-TRIS-fructose with 20% egg yolk) used for chilling and cryopreserving the spermatozoa. Semen samples from eight brown bears were obtained by electroejaculation during the breeding season. In experiment 1, we tested three concentrations of HSPA8 (0.5, 1, and 5 μg/mL) to determine whether sperm motility (computer assisted sperm analysis system) and sperm survival could be improved during refrigeration (5 °C) up to 48 hours. Results showed that sperm viability (test with propidium iodide) was improved by the addition of 0.5 and 5 μg/mL HSPA8. In experiment 2, HSPA8 was added to the cryopreservation media (6% final glycerol concentration) before the freezing process. Though there were no differences in sperm viability immediately after thawing (analyses to 0 hours), plasma membrane permeability (test with YO-PRO-1) was significantly lower by the presence of HSPA8 (1 μg/mL) and acrosomal damage (test with peanut agglutinin-fluorescein isothiocyanate conjugate) was reduced by higher concentrations of HSPA8 (1 and 5 μg/mL) (analyses after thermal stress test incubating over 2 hours to 37 °C). In experiment 3, results of a simple progression test carried out through artificial mucus (hyaluronic acid 4 mg/mL) showed a significant decrease in the total number of sperm able to swim a distance of 0.5 to 2 cm through a capillary tube for all HSPA8-based extenders. Nevertheless, the distance traveled by the vanguard spermatozoa, which represent a highly motile subpopulation, was restored by the inclusion of 1 and 5 μg/mL HSPA8 in the cryopreservation media. Thus, the HSPA8 addition to extender improves the quality of brown bear (Ursus arctos) sperm during chilling (viability) and after cryopreservation (number of sperm with damaged acrosomes and "apoptotic-like" changes).
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| 5. |
- Fazeli, Soude, et al.
(författare)
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Elevating Prediction Accuracy in Trust-aware Collaborative Filtering Recommenders through T-index Metric and TopTrustee lists
- 2010
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Ingår i: Journal of Emerging Technologies in Web Intelligence. - : Engineering and Technology Publishing. - 1798-0461. ; 2:4, s. 300-309
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The growing popularity of Social Networks raises the important issue of trust. Among many systems which have realized the impact of trust, Recommender Systems have been the most influential ones. Collaborative Filtering Recommenders take advantage of trust relations between users for generating more accurate predictions. In this paper, we propose a semantic recommendation framework for creating trust relationships among all types of users with respect to different types of items, which are accessed by unique URI across heterogeneous networks and environments. We gradually build up the trust relationships between users based on the rating information from user profiles and item profiles to generate trust networks of users. For analyzing the formation of trust networks, we employ Tindex as an estimate of a user’s trustworthiness to identify and select neighbors in an effective manner. In this work, we utilize T-index to form the list of an item’s raters, called TopTrustee list for keeping the most reliable users who have already shown interest in the respective item. Thus, when a user rates an item, he/she is able to find users who can be trustworthy neighbors even though they might not be accessible within an upper bound of traversal path length. An empirical evaluation demonstrates how T-index improves the Trust Network structure by generating connections to more trustworthy users. We also show that exploiting Tindex results in better prediction accuracy and coverage of recommendations collected along few edges that connect users on a Social Network.
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| 6. |
- Fazeli, Soude, et al.
(författare)
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Mechanizing Social Trust-Aware Recommenders with T-Index Augmented Trustworthiness
- 2010
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Ingår i: TRUST, PRIVACY AND SECURITY IN DIGITAL BUSINESS. - Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg. - 9783642151514 ; , s. 202-213
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Social Networks have dominated growth and popularity of the Web to an extent which has never been witnessed before. Such popularity puts forward issue of trust to the participants of Social Networks. Collaborative Filtering Recommenders have been among many systems which have begun taking full advantage of Social Trust phenomena for generating more accurate predictions. For analyzing the evolution of constructed networks of trust, we utilize Collaborative Filtering enhanced with T-index as an estimate of a user's trustworthiness to identify and select neighbors in an effective manner. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates how T-index improves the Trust Network structure by generating connections to more trustworthy users. We also show that exploiting T-index results in better prediction accuracy and coverage of recommendations collected along few edges that connect users on a network.
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| 7. |
- Zarghami, Alireza, et al.
(författare)
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Social Trust-aware Recommendation System : A T-Index Approach
- 2009
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Ingår i: 2009 IEEE/WIC/ACM INTERNATIONAL JOINT CONFERENCES ON WEB INTELLIGENCE (WI) AND INTELLIGENT AGENT TECHNOLOGIES (IAT), VOL 3. - LOS ALAMITOS : IEEE COMPUTER SOC. - 9781424453313 ; , s. 85-90
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Collaborative Filtering based on similarity suffers from a variety of problems such as sparsity and scalability In this paper, we propose an ontological model of trust between users on a social network to address the limitations of similarity measure in Collaborative Filtering algorithms. For enhancing the constructed network of users based on trust, we introduce an estimate of a user's trustworthiness called T-index to identify and select neighbors in an effective manner We employ T-index to store raters of an item in a so-called TopTrustee list which provides information about users who might not be accessible within a predefined maximum path length. An empirical evaluation shows that our solution improves both prediction accuracy and coverage of recommendations collected along few edges that connect users on a social network by exploiting T-index. We also analyze effect of T-index on structure of trust network to justify the results.
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