| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Alem, Atalay, et al.
(författare)
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Clinical course and outcome of schizophrenia in a predominantly treatment-naive cohort in rural Ethiopia
- 2009
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Ingår i: Schizophrenia Bulletin. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0586-7614 .- 1745-1701. ; 35:3, s. 646-654
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The established view that schizophrenia may have a favorable outcome in developing countries has been recently challenged; however, systematic studies are scarce. In this report, we describe the clinical outcome of schizophrenia among a predominantly treatment-naive cohort in a rural community setting in Ethiopia. The cohort was identified in a 2-stage sampling design using key informants and measurement-based assessment. Follow-up assessments were conducted monthly for a mean duration of 3.4 years (range 1-6 years). After screening 68 378 adults, ages 15-49 years, 321 cases with schizophrenia (82.7% men and 89.6% treatment naive) were identified. During follow-up, about a third (30.8%) of cases were continuously ill while most of the remaining cohort experienced an episodic course. Only 5.7% of the cases enjoyed a near-continuous complete remission. In the final year of follow-up, over half of the cases (54%) were in psychotic episode, while 17.6% were in partial remission and 27.4% were in complete remission for at least the month preceding the follow-up assessment. Living in a household with 3 or more adults, later age of onset, and taking antipsychotic medication for at least 50% of the follow-up period predicted complete remission. Although outcome in this setting appears better than in developed countries, the very low proportion of participants in complete remission supports the recent observation that the outcome of schizophrenia in developing countries may be heterogeneous rather than uniformly favorable. Improving access to treatment may be the logical next step to improve outcome of schizophrenia in this setting.
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| 5. |
- Kebede, D, et al.
(författare)
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Onset and clinical course of schizophrenia in Butajira-Ethiopia--a community-based study.
- 2003
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Ingår i: Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology. - : Springer. - 0933-7954 .- 1433-9285. ; 38:11, s. 625-631
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: There are reports on favourable course and outcome of schizophrenia in lowincome countries. The aim of the present study was to examine onset and clinical course of the illness in a community-based sample in rural Ethiopia based on crosssectional information. Method: A two-stage survey was carried out in Butajira-Ethiopia, a predominantly rural district. Altogether 68,378 individuals aged 15–49 years were CIDI-interviewed, of whom 2,159 were identified as cases according to the CIDI interview with regard to psychotic or affective disorders. Key informants identified another group of 719 individuals as being probable cases and a total of 2,285 individuals were SCAN-interviewed. The present paper reports on cases with schizophrenia. Results: There were 321 cases of schizophrenia giving an estimated lifetime prevalence of 4.7/1,000). Of the cases,83.2% (N = 267) were males. Mean age of first onset of psychotic symptoms for males was 23.8 (sd 8.6) compared to 21.0 (sd 7.8) for females (P = 0.037; 95 %CI 0.16–5.47). Over 80% had negative symptoms and over 67% reported continuous course of the illness. Less than 10% had a history of previous treatment with neuroleptic medication. About 7% were vagrants, 9 % had a history of assaultive behaviour,and 3.8% had attempted suicide. The male to female ratio was nearly 5:1. Conclusion: This large community-based study differs from most previous studies in terms of higher male to female ratio, earlier age of onset in females and the predominance of negative symptoms.
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| 6. |
- Negash, Alemayehu, 1962-, et al.
(författare)
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Neurological soft signs in bipolar I disorder patients
- 2004
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Ingår i: Journal of Affective Disorders. - 0165-0327 .- 1573-2517. ; 80:2/3, s. 221-230
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological soft signs (NSS) have been reported to be more prevalent in patients with schizophrenia compared to other psychiatric and non-psychiatric controls. However, this issue in bipolar I disorder seems to be understudied. Aims: The aims of the study were to examine the extent to which NSS are associated with bipolar I disorder cases compared to healthy controls, to assess the possible relationship between NSS and clinical dimensions of the disorder, and to explore the association of sociodemographic characteristics with the occurrence of NSS in cases with this disorder. Methods: Predominantly treatment naïve cases of bipolar I disorder from rural communities were assessed for NSS using the Neurological Evaluation Scale (NES). Results: This study showed that patients with bipolar I disorder performed significantly worse on two NES items from the sensory integration subscale, on one item from motor coordination and on four items from the ‘others’ subscale, the highest difference in performance being in items under the sequencing of complex motor acts subscale. Clinical dimensions and sociodemographic characteristics appeared to have no relationship with NES total score. Conclusions: Bipolar I disorder patients seem to have more neurological dysfunction compared to healthy controls particularly in the area of sequencing of complex motor acts. In addition, the finding suggests that NSS in bipolar I disorder are stable neurological abnormalities established at its onset or may be essential characteristic features of the disorder representing stable disease process that existed long before its onset.
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| 7. |
- Shibre, Teshome, et al.
(författare)
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Neurological soft signs (NSS) in 200 treatment-naïve cases with schizophrenia : a community-based study in a rural setting.
- 2002
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Ingår i: Nordic Journal of Psychiatry. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0803-9488 .- 1502-4725. ; 56:6, s. 425-31
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several studies have reported neurological soft signs (NSS) to be common in individuals with schizophrenia. The majority of these studies are based on clinical samples exposed to neuroleptic treatment. The present study reports on 200 treatment-naïve and community-identified cases of schizophrenia and 78 healthy individuals from the same area, evaluated using the Neurological Evaluation Scale (NES). The median NES score was 5.0 for cases of schizophrenia and 1.5 for healthy subjects. The impairment rate of NSS in cases with schizophrenia was 65.0% against 50.0% in healthy subjects, and the difference was statistically significant (chi2 = 5.30; df = 1; P < 0.021). NSS abnormality is as common in treatment-naïve cases as reported in many studies in those on neuroleptic medication. There was no significant relation between the NSS impairment and duration of illness, remission status, positive symptoms, negative symptoms and disorganized symptoms.
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| 9. |
- Shibre, Teshome, et al.
(författare)
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Schizophrenia : illness impact on family members in a traditional society--rural Ethiopia.
- 2003
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Ingår i: Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology. - : Springer. - 0933-7954 .- 1433-9285. ; 38:1, s. 27-34
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies have consistently shown that both the subjective and objective dimensions of burden among family members of schizophrenia patients and other psychiatric disorders are prevalent. However, as most of these reports were from western societies, we lack information on the subject in developing countries. Method: The study was conducted within the framework of the ongoing epidemiological study of course and outcome of schizophrenia and bipolar disorders in a rural population of 15–49 years of age. Three hundred and one cases of schizophrenia and their close relatives participated in the study. Results: Family burden is a common problem of relatives of cases with schizophrenia. Financial difficulty is the most frequently endorsed problem among the family burden domains (74.4 %). Relatives of female cases suffered significantly higher social burden (Z = 2.103; p = 0.036). Work (Z = 2.180; p = 0.029) and financial (Z = 2.088; p = 0.037) burdens affected female relatives more often than males. Disorganised symptoms were the most important factors affecting the family members in all family burden domains. Prayer was found to be the most frequently used coping strategy in work burden (adj. OR = 1.99; 95 % CI = 1.08–3.67; p = 0.026). Conclusion: Negative impact of schizophrenia on family members is substantial even in traditional societies such as those in Ethiopia where family network is strong and important. The scarce existing services in the developing countries should include family interventions and support at least in the form of educating the family members about the nature of schizophrenia illness and dealing with its stigma and family burden.
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