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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Milojevic, Milan, et al.
(författare)
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Causes of Death Following PCI Versus CABG in Complex CAD 5-Year Follow-Up of SYNTAX
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 67:1, s. 42-55
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND There are no data available on specific causes of death from randomized trials that have compared coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to investigate specific causes of death, and its predictors, after revascularization for complex coronary disease in patients. METHODS An independent Clinical Events Committee consisting of expert physicians who were blinded to the study treatment subclassified causes of death as cardiovascular (cardiac and vascular), noncardiovascular, or undetermined according to the trial protocol. Cardiac deaths were classified as sudden cardiac, related to myocardial infarction (MI), and other cardiac deaths. RESULTS In the randomized cohort, there were 97 deaths after CABG and 123 deaths after PCI during a 5-year follow-up. After CABG, 49.4% of deaths were cardiovascular, with the greatest cause being heart failure, arrhythmia, or other causes (24.6%), whereas after PCI, the majority of deaths were cardiovascular (67.5%) and as a result of MI (29.3%). The cumulative incidence rates of all-cause death were not significantly different between CABG and PCI (11.4% vs. 13.9%, respectively; p = 0.10), whereas there were significant differences in terms of cardiovascular (5.8% vs. 9.6%, respectively; p = 0.008) and cardiac death (5.3% vs. 9.0%, respectively; p = 0.003), which were caused primarily by a reduction in MI-related death with CABG compared with PCI (0.4% vs. 4.1%, respectively; p <0.0001). Treatment with PCI versus CABG was an independent predictor of cardiac death (hazard ratio: 1.55; 95% confidence interval: 1.09 to 2.33; p = 0.045). The difference in MI-related death was seen largely in patients with diabetes, 3-vessel disease, or high SYNTAX (TAXUS Drug-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for the Treatment of Narrowed Arteries) trial scores. CONCLUSIONS During a 5-year follow-up, CABG in comparison with PCI was associated with a significantly reduced rate of MI-related death, which was the leading cause of death after PCI. Treatments following PCI should target reducing post-revascularization spontaneous MI. Furthermore, secondary preventive medication remains essential in reducing events post-revascularization. (TAXUS Drug-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for the Treatment of Narrowed Arteries [SYNTAX]; NCT00114972)
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3. |
- Morice, Marie-Claude, et al.
(författare)
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Angiographic outcomes following stenting or coronary artery bypass surgery of the left main coronary artery : fifteen-month outcomes from the synergy between PCI with TAXUS express and cardiac surgery left main angiographic substudy (SYNTAX-LE MANS)
- 2011
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Ingår i: EuroIntervention : journal of EuroPCR in collaboration with the Working Group on Interventional Cardiology of the European Society of Cardiology. - 1969-6213. ; 7:6, s. 670-679
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIMS: The SYNTAX-LE MANS substudy prospectively evaluated 15-month angiographic and clinical outcomes in patients with treated left main (LM) disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the SYNTAX trial, 1,800 patients with three-vessel and/or LM disease were randomised to either CABG or PCI; of these, 271 LM patients were prospectively assigned to receive a 15-month angiogram. The primary endpoint for the CABG arm was the ratio of ≥50% to <100% obstructed/occluded grafts bypassing LM lesions to the number placed. The primary endpoint for the PCI arm was the proportion of patients with ≤50% diameter stenosis ('patent' stents) of treated LM lesions. Per protocol, no formal comparison between CABG and PCI arms was intended based on the differing primary endpoints. Available 15-month angiograms were analysed for 114 CABG and 149 PCI patients. At 15 months, 9.9% (26/263) of CABG grafts were 100% occluded and an additional 5.7% (15/263) were ≥50% to <100% occluded. Overall, 27.2% (31/114) of patients had ≥1 obstructed/occluded graft. The 15-month CABG MACCE rate was 8.8% (10/114) and MACCE at 15 months was not significantly associated with graft obstruction/occlusion (p=0.85). In the PCI arm, 92.4% (134/145) of patients had ≤50% diameter LM stenosis at 15 months (89.7% [87/97] distal LM lesions and 97.9% [47/48] non-distal LM lesions). The 15-month PCI MACCE rate was 12.8% (20/156) and this was significantly associated with lack of stent patency at 15 months (p<0.001), mainly due to repeat revascularisation. CONCLUSIONS: At 15 months, 15.6% (41/263) of grafts were at least 50% obstructed but this was not significantly associated with MACCE; 92.4% (134/145) of patients had stents that remained patent at 15 months, and stent restenosis was significantly associated with MACCE, predominantly due to revascularisation.
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5. |
- Head, Stuart J., et al.
(författare)
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Coronary artery bypass grafting vs. percutaneous coronary intervention for patients with three-vessel disease : final five-year follow-up of the SYNTAX trial
- 2014
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 35:40, s. 2821-2830
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) has been considered the standard of care for patients with three-vessel disease (3VD), but long-term comparative results from randomized trials of CABG vs. percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using drug-eluting stents (DES) remain limited. Methods and results Patients with de novo 3VD or left main disease were randomly assigned to PCI with the paclitaxel-eluting first-generation stent or CABG in the SYNTAX trial. This pre-specified analysis presents the 5-year outcomes of patients with 3VD (n = 1095). The rate of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) was significantly higher in patients with PCI compared with CABG (37.5 vs. 24.2%, respectively; P < 0.001). Percutaneous coronary intervention as opposed to CABG resulted in significantly higher rates of the composite of death/stroke/myocardial infarction (MI) (22.0 vs. 14.0%, respectively; P < 0.001), all-cause death (14.6 vs. 9.2%, respectively; P = 0.006), MI (9.2 vs. 4.0%, respectively; P = 0.001), and repeat revascularization (25.4 vs. 12.6%, respectively; P < 0.001); however, stroke was similar between groups at 5 years (3.0 vs. 3.5%, respectively; P = 0.66). Results were dependent on lesion complexity (P for interaction = 0.12); in patients with a low (022) SYNTAX score, PCI vs. CABG resulted in similar rates of MACCE (33.3% vs. 26.8%, respectively; P = 0.21) but significantly more repeat revascularization (25.4% vs. 12.6%, respectively; P = 0.038), while in intermediate (2332) or high (>= 33) SYNTAX score terciles, CABG demonstrated clear superiority in terms of MACCE, death, MI, and repeat revascularization. Differences in MACCE between PCI and CABG were larger in diabetics [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.30] than non-diabetics (HR = 1.51), although the P for interaction failed to reach significance for MACCE (P for interaction = 0.095) or any of the other endpoints. Conclusion Five-year results of patients with 3VD treated with CABG or PCI using the first-generation paclitaxel-eluting DES suggest that CABG should remain the standard of care as it resulted in significantly lower rates of death, MI, and repeat revascularization, while stroke rates were similar. For patients with low SYNTAX scores, PCI is an acceptable revascularization strategy, although at a price of significantly higher rates of repeat revascularization.
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6. |
- Kappetein, Arie Pieter, et al.
(författare)
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Comparison of coronary bypass surgery with drug-eluting stenting for the treatment of left main and/or three-vessel disease : 3-year follow-up of the SYNTAX trial
- 2011
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 32:17, s. 2125-2134
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: Long-term randomized comparisons of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in left main coronary (LM) disease and/or three-vessel disease (3VD) patients have been limited. This analysis compares 3-year outcomes in LM and/or 3VD patients treated with CABG or PCI with TAXUS Express stents. Methods and results: SYNTAX is an 85-centre randomized clinical trial (n = 1800). Prospectively screened, consecutive LM and/or 3VD patients were randomized if amenable to equivalent revascularization using either technique; if not, they were entered into a registry. Patients in the randomized cohort will continue to be followed for 5 years. At 3 years, major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events [MACCE: death, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and repeat revascularization; CABG 20.2% vs. PCI 28.0%, P < 0.001], repeat revascularization (10.7 vs. 19.7%, P < 0.001), and MI (3.6 vs. 7.1%, P = 0.002) were elevated in the PCI arm. Rates of the composite safety endpoint (death/stroke/MI 12.0 vs. 14.1%, P = 0.21) and stroke alone (3.4 vs. 2.0%, P = 0.07) were not significantly different between treatment groups. Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates were not significantly different between arms in the LM subgroup (22.3 vs. 26.8%, P = 0.20) but were higher with PCI in the 3VD subgroup (18.8 vs. 28.8%, P < 0.001). Conclusions: At 3 years, MACCE was significantly higher in PCI-compared with CABG-treated patients. In patients with less complex disease (low SYNTAX scores for 3VD or low/intermediate terciles for LM patients), PCI is an acceptable revascularization, although longer follow-up is needed to evaluate these two revascularization strategies.
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- Mack, Michael J, et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of Stroke Occurring in the SYNTAX Trial Comparing Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in the Treatment of Complex Coronary Artery Disease
- 2013
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Ingår i: JACC. Cardiovascular interventions. - : Elsevier BV. - 1936-8798. ; 6:4, s. 344-354
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: This study sought to analyze stroke rates in the SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) trial's randomized and registry cohorts of patients being treated with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for treatment of complex coronary artery disease.BACKGROUND: The SYNTAX trial compared PCI to CABG in patients with de novo 3-vessel and/or left main coronary disease.METHODS: The SYNTAX randomized trial was conducted at 85 U.S. and European sites (n = 1,800). All strokes (up to 4 years) were independently adjudicated by a clinical events committee that included a neurologist. An additional 1,077 (of which 644 were followed for 5 years) and 198 patients were included in the CABG and PCI registries, respectively.RESULTS: In the randomized cohort, 31 CABG and 19 PCI patients experienced 33 and 20 strokes post-randomization at 4-year follow-up, respectively (p = 0.062). Three strokes occurred pre-procedurally but following randomization in CABG-treated patients. After CABG, a large proportion of strokes occurred acutely (0 to 30 days: 9 of 33), whereas in the PCI arm, most strokes occurred >30 days after the procedure (18 of 20). Stroke resulted in death in 3 patients in both the PCI and CABG groups. Of the patients who developed stroke, 68% (21 of 31) in the CABG group had residual deficits at discharge; in the PCI group, 47% (9 of 19) had residual deficits. In a multivariate analysis, treatment with CABG was not significantly associated with increased stroke rates (odds ratio: 1.67, 95% confidence interval: 0.93 to 3.01, p = 0.089). The incidence and outcomes of stroke were similar in the randomized trial and registries.CONCLUSIONS: There is a higher risk of periprocedural stroke in patients undergoing CABG versus PCI; however, the risk converges over the first 4 years of follow-up. (SYNTAX Study: TAXUS Drug-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for the Treatment of Narrowed Arteries; NCT00114972).
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- Mohr, Friedrich W., et al.
(författare)
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Coronary artery bypass graft surgery versus percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with three-vessel disease and left main coronary disease : 5-year follow-up of the randomised, clinical SYNTAX trial
- 2013
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 381:9867, s. 629-638
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background We report the 5-year results of the SYNTAX trial, which compared coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for the treatment of patients with left main coronary disease or three-vessel disease, to confirm findings at 1 and 3 years. Methods The randomised, clinical SYNTAX trial with nested registries took place in 85 centres in the USA and Europe. A cardiac surgeon and interventional cardiologist at each centre assessed consecutive patients with de-novo three-vessel disease or left main coronary disease to determine suitability for study treatments. Eligible patients suitable for either treatment were randomly assigned (1: 1) by an interactive voice response system to either PCI with a first-generation paclitaxel-eluting stent or to CABG. Patients suitable for only one treatment option were entered into either the PCI-only or CABG-only registries. We analysed a composite rate of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) at 5-year follow-up by Kaplan-Meier analysis on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00114972. Findings 1800 patients were randomly assigned to CABG (n=897) or PCI (n=903). More patients who were assigned to CABG withdrew consent than did those assigned to PCI (50 vs 11). After 5 years' follow-up, Kaplan-Meier estimates of MACCE were 26.9% in the CABG group and 37.3% in the PCI group (p<0.0001). Estimates of myocardial infarction (3.8% in the CABG group vs 9.7% in the PCI group; p<0.0001) and repeat revascularisation (13.7% vs 25.9%; p<0.0001) were significantly increased with PCI versus CABG. All-cause death (11.4% in the CABG group vs 13.9% in the PCI group; p=0.10) and stroke (3.7% vs 2.4%; p=0.09) were not significantly different between groups. 28.6% of patients in the CABG group with low SYNTAX scores had MACCE versus 32.1% of patients in the PCI group (p=0.43) and 31.0% in the CABG group with left main coronary disease had MACCE versus 36.9% in the PCI group (p=0.12); however, in patients with intermediate or high SYNTAX scores, MACCE was significantly increased with PCI (intermediate score, 25.8% of the CABG group vs 36.0% of the PCI group; p=0.008; high score, 26.8% vs 44.0%; p<0.0001). Interpretation CABG should remain the standard of care for patients with complex lesions (high or intermediate SYNTAX scores). For patients with less complex disease (low SYNTAX scores) or left main coronary disease (low or intermediate SYNTAX scores), PCI is an acceptable alternative. All patients with complex multivessel coronary artery disease should be reviewed and discussed by both a cardiac surgeon and interventional cardiologist to reach consensus on optimum treatment.
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- Morice, Marie-Claude, et al.
(författare)
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Five-Year Outcomes in Patients With Left Main Disease Treated With Either Percutaneous Coronary Intervention or Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting in the Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery Trial
- 2014
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Ingår i: Circulation. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 129:23, s. 2388-2394
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background-Current guidelines recommend coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) when treating significant de novo left main coronary artery (LM) stenosis; however, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has a class IIa indication for unprotected LM disease in selected patients. This analysis compares 5-year clinical outcomes in PCI-and CABG-treated LM patients in the Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial, the largest trial in this group to date. Methods and Results-The SYNTAX trial randomly assigned 1800 patients with LM or 3-vessel disease to receive either PCI (with TAXUS Express paclitaxel-eluting stents) or CABG. The unprotected LM cohort (N=705) was predefined and powered. Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates at 5 years was 36.9% in PCI patients and 31.0% in CABG patients (hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% confidence interval, 0.95-1.59]; P=0.12). Mortality rate was 12.8% and 14.6% in PCI and CABG patients, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.88 [95% confidence interval, 0.58-1.32]; P=0.53). Stroke was significantly increased in the CABG group (PCI 1.5% versus CABG 4.3%; hazard ratio, 0.33 [95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.92]; P=0.03) and repeat revascularization in the PCI arm (26.7% versus 15.5%; hazard ratio, 1.82 [95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.57]; P<0.01). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were similar between arms in patients with low/intermediate SYNTAX scores but significantly increased in PCI patients with high scores (>= 33). Conclusions-At 5 years, no difference in overall major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events was found between treatment groups. PCI-treated patients had a lower stroke but a higher revascularization rate versus CABG. These results suggest that both treatments are valid options for LM patients. The extent of disease should accounted for when choosing between surgery and PCI, because patients with high SYNTAX scores seem to benefit more from surgery compared with those in the lower tertiles.
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10. |
- Morice, Marie-Claude, et al.
(författare)
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Outcomes in Patients With De Novo Left Main Disease Treated With Either Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Using Paclitaxel-Eluting Stents or Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Treatment in the Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) Trial
- 2010
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Ingår i: Circulation. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 121:24, s. 2645-2653
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The prospective, multinational, randomized Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial was designed to assess the optimal revascularization strategy between percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), for patients with left main (LM) and/or 3-vessel coronary disease. Methods and Results: This observational hypothesis-generating analysis reports the results of a prespecified powered subgroup of 705 randomized patients who had LM disease among the 1800 patients with de novo 3-vessel disease and/or LM disease randomized to PCI with paclitaxel-eluting stents or CABG in the SYNTAX trial. Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates at 1 year in LM patients were similar for CABG and PCI (13.7% versus 15.8%; Delta 2.1% [95% confidence interval -3.2% to 7.4%]; P = 0.44). At 1 year, stroke was significantly higher in the CABG arm (2.7% versus 0.3%; Delta-2.4% [95% confidence interval -4.2% to -0.1%]; P = 0.009]), whereas repeat revascularization was significantly higher in the PCI arm (6.5% versus 11.8%; Delta 5.3% [95% confidence interval 1.0% to 9.6%]; P = 0.02); there was no observed difference between groups for other end points. When patients were scored for anatomic complexity, those with higher baseline SYNTAX scores had significantly worse outcomes with PCI than did patients with low or intermediate SYNTAX scores; outcomes for patients with CABG did not correlate with baseline SYNTAX score, but baseline EuroSCORE significantly predicted outcomes for both treatments. Conclusions: Patients with LM disease who had revascularization with PCI had safety and efficacy outcomes comparable to CABG at 1 year; longer follow-up is required to determine whether these 2 revascularization strategies offer comparable medium-term outcomes in this group of complex patients.
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