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- Stafoggia, M., et al.
(författare)
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Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 181
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mor-tality is still inconsistent. Objectives: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter <= 10 mu m (PM10), PM <= 2.5 mu m (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995-2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. Results: We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 mu g/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 mu g/ m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 mu g/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. Conclusions: Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.
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- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., et al.
(författare)
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Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios
- 2018
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 150:3-4, s. 391-402
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.
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- Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., et al.
(författare)
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The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 11:6, s. 492-500
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.
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- Moitra, S., et al.
(författare)
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Long-term effect of asthma on the development of obesity among adults: an international cohort study, ECRHS
- 2023
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Ingår i: Thorax. - : BMJ. - 0040-6376 .- 1468-3296. ; 78:2, s. 128-135
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction Obesity is a known risk factor for asthma. Although some evidence showed asthma causing obesity in children, the link between asthma and obesity has not been investigated in adults. Methods We used data from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS), a cohort study in 11 European countries and Australia in 3 waves between 1990 and 2014, at intervals of approximately 10 years. We considered two study periods: from ECRHS I (t) to ECRHS II (t+1), and from ECRHS II (t) to ECRHS III (t+1). We excluded obese (body mass index >= 30 kg/m(2)) individuals at visit t. The relative risk (RR) of obesity at t+1 associated with asthma at t was estimated by multivariable modified Poisson regression (lag) with repeated measurements. Additionally, we examined the association of atopy and asthma medication on the development of obesity. Results We included 7576 participants in the period ECRHS I-II (51.5% female, mean (SD) age of 34 (7) years) and 4976 in ECRHS II-III (51.3% female, 42 (8) years). 9% of participants became obese in ECRHS I-II and 15% in ECRHS II-III. The risk of developing obesity was higher among asthmatics than non-asthmatics (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.38), and particularly higher among non-atopic than atopic (1.47; 1.17 to 1.86 vs 1.04; 0.86 to 1.27), those with longer disease duration (1.32; 1.10 to 1.59 in >20 years vs 1.12; 0.87 to 1.43 in <= 20 years) and those on oral corticosteroids (1.99; 1.26 to 3.15 vs 1.15; 1.03 to 1.28). Physical activity was not a mediator of this association. Conclusion This is the first study showing that adult asthmatics have a higher risk of developing obesity than non-asthmatics, particularly those non-atopic, of longer disease duration or on oral corticosteroids.
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- Carsin, A. E., et al.
(författare)
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Spirometric patterns in young and middle-aged adults: a 20-year European study
- 2024
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Ingår i: Thorax. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0040-6376 .- 1468-3296. ; 79:2, s. 153-162
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Understanding the natural history of abnormal spirometric patterns at different stages of life is critical to identify and optimise preventive strategies. We aimed to describe characteristics and risk factors of restrictive and obstructive spirometric patterns occurring before 40 years (young onset) and between 40 and 61 years (mid-adult onset). Methods We used data from the population- based cohort of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS). Prebronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV 1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were assessed longitudinally at baseline (ECRHS1, 1993-1994) and again 20 years later ( ECRHS3, 2010-2013). Spirometry patterns were defined as: restrictive if FEV1/ FVC >= LLN and FVC<10th percentile, obstructive if FEV1/FVC
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