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- Breznau, Nate, et al.
(author)
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Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- 2022
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In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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| 2. |
- Forster, Martin, et al.
(author)
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A randomized controlled trial of a standardized behavior management intervention for students with externalizing behavior
- 2012
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In: Journal of Emotional and Behavioral Disorders. - : SAGE Publications. - 1063-4266 .- 1538-4799. ; 20:3, s. 169-183
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study reports the results from a Swedish randomized controlled trial of a standardized behavior management intervention. The intervention targeted students with externalizing behavior in a regular education setting. First- and second-grade students (N = 100) from 38 schools were randomly assigned to either the intervention or an active comparison group. Observer, teacher, and peer ratings were collected at pretest, posttest (6 months later), and follow-up (14 months after pretest). Significant intervention effects were found on student externalizing behavior and teacher behavior management at both posttest and follow-up. The intervention effect on student externalizing behavior was mediated by change in teacher behavior. Moderating effects of demographic and classroom variables were explored, as well as the social validity of the intervention. The results are discussed in relation to cost-effectiveness and feasibility of behavioral interventions in typical school settings.
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| 3. |
- Forster, Martin, et al.
(author)
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Charlie och Komet : utvärdering av två lärarprogram för elever med beteendeproblem
- 2005
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- I de flesta klasser finns det elever med beteendeproblem. Dessa elever beskrivs ofta som svåra att undervisa, de kräver lärarens oavbrutna uppmärksamhet och uppfattas rent allmänt som besvärliga. Att tidigt uppvisa beteendeproblem innebär samtidigt ökad risk för olika typer av svårigheter senare i livet. Denna rapport utvärderar hur två lärarbaserade program kan hjälpa dessa elever. Resultaten baseras på 135 lärare från 63 skolor med elever i årskurs 1 och 2. Lärarna rekryterades under tre på varandra följande terminer. Lärarna fördelades slumpmässigt till utbildning i programmet KOMET eller CHARLIE. En del av lärarna som fick CHARLIE fick vänta i sex månader innan utbildningen påbörjades. På så sätt kunde effekterna av programmen jämföras med utvecklingen i en klass utan program. Från varje klass valdes en elev med beteendeproblem ut, det vill säga 135 elever. Denna rapport handlar om programmens effekter för dessa elever. Lärarskattningar, kamratskattningar, självskattningar och observationer genomfördes efter randomiseringen, efter sex månader och efter 14 månader. Resultaten visar inga statistiskt säkerställda skillnader mellan grupperna efter sex månader. Efter 14 månader hade eleverna i KOMET-gruppen mindre beteendeproblem, i synnerhet hyperaktivitet. De hade även mindre kamratproblem. KOMET hade även positiva effekter på lärarnas beteenden efter 14 månader. Det var drygt dubbelt så stor chans att en elev i KOMETgruppen skulle bedömas som ett lyckat fall efter 14 månader jämfört med en elev i CHARLIEgruppen.
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| 6. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(author)
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First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. II. EHT and Multiwavelength Observations, Data Processing, and Calibration
- 2022
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In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 930:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 1.3 mm measurements of the radio source located at the position of the supermassive black hole Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), collected during the 2017 April 5-11 campaign. The observations were carried out with eight facilities at six locations across the globe. Novel calibration methods are employed to account for Sgr A*'s flux variability. The majority of the 1.3 mm emission arises from horizon scales, where intrinsic structural source variability is detected on timescales of minutes to hours. The effects of interstellar scattering on the image and its variability are found to be subdominant to intrinsic source structure. The calibrated visibility amplitudes, particularly the locations of the visibility minima, are broadly consistent with a blurred ring with a diameter of similar to 50 mu as, as determined in later works in this series. Contemporaneous multiwavelength monitoring of Sgr A* was performed at 22, 43, and 86 GHz and at near-infrared and X-ray wavelengths. Several X-ray flares from Sgr A* are detected by Chandra, one at low significance jointly with Swift on 2017 April 7 and the other at higher significance jointly with NuSTAR on 2017 April 11. The brighter April 11 flare is not observed simultaneously by the EHT but is followed by a significant increase in millimeter flux variability immediately after the X-ray outburst, indicating a likely connection in the emission physics near the event horizon. We compare Sgr A*'s broadband flux during the EHT campaign to its historical spectral energy distribution and find that both the quiescent emission and flare emission are consistent with its long-term behavior.
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| 7. |
- Bergamaschi, Peter, et al.
(author)
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European Obspack compilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide data from ICOS and non-ICOS European stations for the period 1972-2023; : obspack_co2_466_GLOBALVIEWplus_v8.0_2023-04-26
- 2023
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This data package contains high accuracy CO2 dry air mole fractions from 58 ICOS and non-ICOS European observatories at in total 132 observation levels, collected by the ICOS Atmosphere Thematic Centre (ATC) and provided by the station contributors. The package is part of the Globalviewplus v8.0 data product, released in 2022 and is intended for use in carbon cycle inverse modeling, model evaluation, and satellite validation studies. Please report errors and send comments regarding this product to the ObsPack originators. Please read carefully the ObsPack Fair Use statement and cite appropriately. This is the sixth release of the GLOBALVIEWplus (GV+) cooperative data product. Please review the release notes for this product at www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/obspack/release_notes.html. Metadata for this product are available at https://commons.datacite.org/doi.org/10.18160/CEC4-CAGK. Please visit http://www.gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/obspack/ for more information.
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| 8. |
- Bergamaschi, Peter, et al.
(author)
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High-resolution inverse modelling of European CH4emissions using the novel FLEXPART-COSMO TM5 4DVAR inverse modelling system
- 2022
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 22:20, s. 13243-13268
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a novel high-resolution inverse modelling system ("FLEXVAR") based on FLEXPARTCOSMO back trajectories driven by COSMO meteorological fields at 7 km×7 km resolution over the European COSMO-7 domain and the four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation technique. FLEXVAR is coupled offline with the global inverse modelling system TM5-4DVAR to provide background mole fractions ("baselines") consistent with the global observations assimilated in TM5-4DVAR. We have applied the FLEXVAR system for the inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions in 2018 using 24 stations with in situ measurements, complemented with data from five stations with discrete air sampling (and additional stations outside the European COSMO-7 domain used for the global TM5-4DVAR inversions). The sensitivity of the FLEXVAR inversions to different approaches to calculate the baselines, different parameterizations of the model representation error, different settings of the prior error covariance parameters, different prior inventories, and different observation data sets are investigated in detail. Furthermore, the FLEXVAR inversions are compared to inversions with the FLEXPART extended Kalman filter ("FLExKF") system and with TM5-4DVAR inversions at 1° × 1° resolution over Europe. The three inverse modelling systems show overall good consistency of the major spatial patterns of the derived inversion increments and in general only relatively small differences in the derived annual total emissions of larger country regions. At the same time, the FLEXVAR inversions at 7 km × 7 km resolution allow the observations to be better reproduced than the TM5-4DVAR simulations at 1° × 1°. The three inverse models derive higher annual total CH4 emissions in 2018 for Germany, France, and BENELUX compared to the sum of anthropogenic emissions reported to UNFCCC and natural emissions estimated from the Global Carbon Project CH4 inventory, but the uncertainty ranges of top-down and bottom-up total emission estimates overlap for all three country regions. In contrast, the top-down estimates for the sum of emissions from the UK and Ireland agree relatively well with the total of anthropogenic and natural bottom-up inventories.
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| 9. |
- Botticella, M. T., et al.
(author)
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Supernova 2009kf : An Ultraviolet Bright Type IIP Supernova Discovered with Pan-STARRS 1 and GALEX
- 2010
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 717, s. L52-L56
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present photometric and spectroscopic observations of a luminous Type IIP Supernova (SN) 2009kf discovered by the Pan-STARRS 1 (PS1) survey and also detected by the Galaxy Evolution Explorer. The SN shows a plateau in its optical and bolometric light curves, lasting approximately 70 days in the rest frame, with an absolute magnitude of M V = -18.4 mag. The P-Cygni profiles of hydrogen indicate expansion velocities of 9000 km s-1 at 61 days after discovery which is extremely high for a Type IIP SN. SN 2009kf is also remarkably bright in the near-ultraviolet (NUV) and shows a slow evolution 10-20 days after optical discovery. The NUV and optical luminosity at these epochs can be modeled with a blackbody with a hot effective temperature (T ~ 16,000 K) and a large radius (R ~ 1 × 1015 cm). The bright bolometric and NUV luminosity, the light curve peak and plateau duration, the high velocities, and temperatures suggest that 2009kf is a Type IIP SN powered by a larger than normal explosion energy. Recently discovered high-z SNe (0.7 < z < 2.3) have been assumed to be IIn SNe, with the bright UV luminosities due to the interaction of SN ejecta with a dense circumstellar medium. UV-bright SNe similar to SN 2009kf could also account for these high-z events, and its absolute magnitude M NUV = -21.5 ± 0.5 mag suggests such SNe could be discovered out to z ~ 2.5 in the PS1 survey.
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