| 1. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 2. |
- Bergman, Klara, et al.
(författare)
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The relationship between timing of development and bus rapid transit
- 2017
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 3rd ACM SIGSPATIAL Workshop on Smart Cities and Urban Analytics, UrbanGIS 2017. - New York, NY, USA : Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). - 9781450354950
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The city of Curitiba in southern Brazil is considered to be the cradle of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. Curitiba has a population of around 1.9 million people and has a higher development index than Brazil in general. A master plan approved in the middle of the 1960’s has guided the development of the city in a Transit Oriented Development (TOD) direction by zoning for high development densities close to the five BRT trunk lines in so-called structural development in Curitiba.The objective was to examine if the BRT system could have been a motivator for property development, and if so, to what extend. This paper presents a perspective to examine property development: Timing of Development, as the relationship between the number of years after construction of BRT lines buildings were constructed, and the distances of these buildings from the BRT lines. Results from the entire BRT system showed that a greater "time lag" of property development following BRT development also meant that the property in question was located further away from a BRT line, suggesting that areas close to the BRT were popular.
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| 3. |
- Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin, et al.
(författare)
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Examining the effects of out-of-home and in-home constraints on leisure activity participation in different seasons of the year
- 2016
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Ingår i: Transportation. - : Springer-Verlag New York. - 0049-4488 .- 1572-9435. ; , s. 1-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using multi-day, multi-period travel diaries data of 56 days (four waves of two-week diaries) for 67 individuals in Stockholm, this study aims to examine the effects of out-of-home and in-home constraints (e.g. teleworking, studying at home, doing the laundry, cleaning and taking care of other household member[s]) on individuals’ day-to-day leisure activity participation decisions in four different seasons. This study also aims to explore the effects of various types of working schedules (fixed, shift, partial- and full-flexible) on individuals’ decisions to participate in day-to-day leisure activities. A pooled model (56 days) and wave-specific models (14 days in each wave) are estimated by using dynamic ordered Probit models. The effects of various types of working schedules are estimated by using 28 days of two waves’ data. The results show that an individual’s leisure activity participation decision is significantly influenced by out-of-home work durations but not influenced by in-home constraints, regardless of any seasons. Individuals with shift working hours engage less in day-to-day leisure activities than other workers’ types in both spring and summer seasons. The thermal indicator significantly affects individuals’ leisure activity participation decisions during the autumn season. Individuals exhibit routine behaviour characterized by repeated decisions in participating in day-to-day leisure activities that can last up to 14 days, regardless of any seasons.
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| 4. |
- Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin, et al.
(författare)
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Observing dynamic behavioural responses due to the extension of a tram line by using panel survey
- 2016
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 86, s. 78-95
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using a four-wave panel survey of individuals' trips and psychological attributes collected among residents along a new tram line extension in the city of Stockholm, Sweden, this study aims to investigate factors that determine the individuals' learning and decision-making processes in using a new transport option. This includes investigating which group of travellers have used the new tram extension earlier than others, and integrated the tram extension as a part of their daily travel patterns. This paper also describes the design and construction of the four-wave panel data collection, which was collected from two weeks before and up to seven months after the opening of the new option. Descriptive analysis shows that within a seven-month period, 79% of the respondents tried the new tram extension but only 14.9% of them adopted the new option as their daily travel mode. During the observed period, about 49.3% of the respondents migrated between travel modes for non-discretionary trips. Further multivariate analysis shows that middle-income travellers and travellers who owned car(s) used the new tram extension earlier than others. The effect of past experience on the current use of the tram extension on a day-to-day basis was also examined by using a mixed logit model with panel data. The purpose of the model is to examine whether individuals' daily experiences with the new tram extension that result from repeated previous choices would affect their decisions to maintain using the new option in subsequent waves.
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| 5. |
- Eliasson, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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The impact of land use effects in infrastructure appraisal
- 2020
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 141, s. 262-276
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- When benefits of proposed infrastructure investments are forecasted, residential location is usually treated as fixed, since very few operational transport models are able to forecast residential relocation. It has been argued that this may constitute a source of serious error or bias when evaluating and comparing the benefits of proposed infrastructure investments. We use a stylized simulation model of a metropolitan region to compare calculated benefits for a large number of infrastructure investments with and without taking changes in residential location into account. In particular, we explore the changes in project selection when assembling an optimal project portfolio under a budget constraint. The simulation model includes endogenous land prices and demand for residential land, heterogeneous preferences and wage offers across residents, and spillover mechanisms which affect wage rates in zones. The model is calibrated to generate realistic travel patterns and demand elasticities. Our results indicate that ignoring residential relocation has a small but appreciable effect on the selected project portfolio, but only a very small effect on achieved total benefits.
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| 6. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(författare)
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Commuting for meetings
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Urban Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0094-1190 .- 1095-9068. ; 81, s. 104-113
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urban congestion causes travel times to exhibit considerable variability, which leads to coordination problems when people have to meet. We analyze a game for the timing of a meeting between two players who must each complete a trip of random duration to reach the meeting, which does not begin until both are present. Players prefer to depart later and also to arrive sooner, provided they do not have to wait for the other player. We find a unique Nash equilibrium, and a continuum of Pareto optima that are strictly better than the Nash equilibrium for both players. Pareto optima may be implemented as Nash equilibria by penalty or compensation schemes.
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| 7. |
- Franklin, Joel P.
(författare)
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The Downs–Thomson Paradox
- 2021
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Ingår i: International Encyclopedia of Transportation: Volume 1-7. - : Elsevier BV. ; , s. 490-495
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The Downs–Thomson Paradox explains a situation where, in a network with a parallel roadway and public transport line, an expansion of the roadway can lead to a worsening of travel times both for cars and for public transport passengers. This situation arises because of an interaction between the roadway, which operates at decreasing returns to scale, with the public transport service, which operates at increasing returns to scale. The paradox is essentially an extension of the principle of induced demand, or the “Iron Law of Congestion,” in which an isolated roadway, when improved, leads to more travelers using the roadway until congestion returns to its previous levels. The Downs–Thomson Paradox has been demonstrated analytically and reproduced in simulated laboratory settings. However, no real-world experiment has yet confirmed its existence due to confounding factors. Still, the Paradox serves as a warning that capacity increases cannot be assumed to reduce travel times.
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| 8. |
- Franklin, Joel P., et al.
(författare)
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Travel Time Reliability for Stockholm Roadways Modeling Mean Lateness Factor
- 2009
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Record. - : SAGE Publications. - 0361-1981 .- 2169-4052. ; :2134, s. 106-113
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In recent years, there has been an increasing awareness that travel time reliability, apart from expected travel time, is an important component of cost-benefit analysis, especially during congested traffic conditions. A common measure of travel time reliability is standard deviation, and it has been shown that this is a theoretically sound measure under scheduling constraints, provided that the mean lateness factor is known. Hence, in applied cost-benefit analyses, one will need both the standard deviation and the mean lateness factor. These analyses would be particularly simple if the mean lateness were constant across time of day and for different routes chosen. A study was done to explore how the mean lateness varies and how its variations can be approximated. With the use of travel time measurements on individual links, it is shown how mean lateness varies considerably across time and space. It is shown that mean lateness exhibits a time-varying pattern depending on the characteristics of congestion on the link. It is also shown that the location of the link in the network is a significant determinant. The resulting model for mean lateness represents a considerable improvement over existing practice, where the mean lateness is implicitly assumed constant, yet a large portion of its variation remains unexplained. The model is useful for informing future research but is of less value for predicting the mean lateness in broad applied settings.
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| 9. |
- Franklin, Joel P., et al.
(författare)
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Traveller Responses to the Stockholm Congestion Pricing Trial: Who Changed, Where Did They Go, and What Did It Cost Them?
- 2016
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Ingår i: Travel Demand Management and Road User Pricing. - : Taylor and Francis. ; , s. 215-238
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Among transport economists and traffic planners, congestion pricing has long been advocated as an efficient means to reduce road congestion. Yet, up until recent years, the idea had rarely been implemented, with Singapore and Trondheim the only examples of congestion pricing systems that vary by time of day.2 In the last few years, however, new congestion pricing systems have been introduced in various forms, with London and Stockholm being the most ambitious systems in the sense that the congestion charges apply to the entire urban core. With the Stockholm system now in place, we have a chance to measure some real effects of congestion pricing on daily travel patterns.
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| 10. |
- Langbroek, Joram Hendrik, et al.
(författare)
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Changing towards electric vehicle use in greater Stockholm
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. - : Editorial Board EJTIR. - 1567-7133 .- 1567-7141. ; 17:3, s. 306-329
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper studies electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Greater Stockholm in Sweden using the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM) and the Protection Motivation Theory as a framework and considers socio-cognitive, behavioural and socio-economic attributes that may influence the process towards electric vehicle use. TTM considers behavioural change as a process consisting of five stages-of-change rather than as an event. Some key findings were made: (1) from the earlier to the later stages-of-change, the attitude towards EVs becomes more positive, the knowledge about EVs increases and the self-efficacy is consistently increasing. (2) The threat appraisal and response efficacy of EVs increase from stage to stage in the stages prior to the actual change but have a lower level for the stages after the change. (3) The explanatory power of regression models modelling both pre-contemplation and all stages-of-change increases significantly when incorporating socio-cognitive variables such as self-efficacy, threat-appraisal, response efficacy and attitudes towards EVs. (4) The modal share of the car is consistently increasing throughout the stages-of-change. The results indicate that policy measures aiming at increasing knowledge and self-efficacy of car drivers related to EV use can stimulate electric vehicle adoption. Also, the relative advantages of EVs for car drivers should get more attention rather than only emphasizing the environmental advantages.
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