| 1. |
- Micah, Angela E., et al.
(författare)
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Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 398:10308, s. 1317-1343
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and $1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34.3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
- Fujita, Thais, et al.
(författare)
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Simulating Discharge in a Non-Dammed River of Southeastern South America Using SWAT Model
- 2022
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Ingår i: Water. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4441. ; 14:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Within a single region, it is possible to identify opposite changes in flow production. This proved to be the case for several basins in southeastern South America. It remains challenging to the causes this behavior and whether changes in streamflow will continue at current levels or decline in the coming decades. In this study, we used the Soil Water Assessment Tool to simulate monthly river discharge in the Ivaí River Basin, an unregulated medium-sized catchment and tributary of the Upper Paraná River Basin. After calibration, the simulated flow regime for the five streamflow stations based on the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NSE) rated four of the streamflow stations Very Good (NSE between 0.86 and 0.89) and only one in the Good index (0.70). The overall flow behavior was well represented, although an underestimation was identified in four monitoring stations. Through assessment of its functionality and limitations in terms of specific flow duration curves percentages, the calibrated model could provide (to managers) the reliability needed for a realistic intervention. The results of this study may assist managers and support public policies for the use of water resources at the Ivaí River basin.
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Rudke, Anderson Paulo, et al.
(författare)
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Land cover data of Upper Parana River Basin, South America, at high spatial resolution
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1569-8432. ; 83
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study presents a new land cover map for the Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB-2015), with high spatial resolution (30 m), and a high number of calibration and validation sites. To the new map, 50 Landsat-8 scenes were classified with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm and their level of agreement was assessed using overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient. The generated map was compared by area and by pixel with six global products (MODIS, GlobCover, Globeland30, FROM-GLC, CCI-LC and, GLCNMO). The results of the new classification showed an overall accuracy ranging from 67% to 100%, depending on the sub-basin (80.0% for the entire UPRB). Kappa coefficient was observed ranging from 0.50 to 1.00 (average of 0.73 in the whole basin). Anthropic areas cover more than 70% of the entire UPRB in the new product, with Croplands covering 46.0%. The new mapped areas of croplands are consistent with local socio-economic statistics but don't agree with global products, especially FROM-GLC (14,9%), MODIS (33.8%), GlobCover (71.2%), and CCI (67.8%). In addition, all global products show generalized spatial disagreement, with some sub-basins showing areas of cropland varying by an order of magnitude, compared to UPRB-2015. In the case of Grassland, covering 25.6% of the UPRB, it was observed a strong underestimation by all global products. Even for the Globeland30 and MODIS, which show some significant fraction of pasture areas, there is a high level of disagreement in the spatial distribution. In terms of general agreement, the seven compared mappings (including the new map) agree in only 6.6% of the study area, predominantly areas of forest and agriculture. Finally, the new classification proposed in this study provides better inputs for regional studies, especially for those involving hydrological modeling as well as offers a more refined LU/LC data set for atmospheric numerical models.
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| 5. |
- Xavier, Ana Carolina Freitas, et al.
(författare)
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Stationary and non-stationary detection of extreme precipitation events and trends of average precipitation from 1980 to 2010 in the Paraná River basin, Brazil
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418 .- 1097-0088. ; 40:2, s. 1197-1212
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The main objective of this study was to investigate the trends on average and extreme events in time series of daily precipitation from 1980 to 2010 in the Paraná River basin, Brazil. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was applied to detect monotonic trend in the precipitation series. The occurrence of extreme values was analysed based on three generalized extreme values (GEV) models: Model 1 (stationary), Model 2 (non-stationary for location parameter), and Model 3 (non-stationary for location and scale parameters). The GEV parameters were estimated by the Generalized Maximum Likelihood method (GMLE) and for the non-stationary models, the parameters were estimated as linear functions of time. To choose the most suitable model, the maximum likelihood ratio test (D) was used. From the results observed at the monthly scale, it was possible to infer that the months with the highest probability of an extreme weather event occurrence are February (climates Aw and Cfa), July (Cfa and Cfb), and October (Aw, Cfa, and Cfb). Approximately 90% of the 1,112 stations presented no trend regarding the GEV parameters. The non-stationarity showed by other stations (Models 2 and 3) might be associated with several factors, such as the alteration of land use due to the north expansion of the agricultural border of the Paraná River basin.
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| 6. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 7. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 8. |
- Abou Rafee, Sameh Adib, et al.
(författare)
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Hydrologic response to large-scale land use and cover changes in the Upper Paraná River Basin between 1985 and 2015
- 2021
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 21:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB) has undergone remarkable land use and cover changes (LUCC) in recent decades. This paper analyses the hydrologic response to LUCC in the UPRB between 1985 and 2015, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The impacts of LUCC were examined for annual, wet, and dry season (both during calibrated and validated periods) between 1984 and 2015. The most substantial LUCC were the extensive reduction of the cerrado and the expansion of agriculture areas. The simulations demonstrated that the LUCC caused important changes in basin hydrology. For instance, an increase (decrease) of surface runoff in the wet (dry) season at most UPRB subbasins was observed. In addition, the simulation results revealed a reduction in actual evapotranspiration and an increase in soil moisture in the annual and wet season. Consequently, most of the major rivers of the basin presented an increase (decrease) in their discharge in the wet (dry) period. The major changes in the hydrologic components were observed in the central-western and southern parts of the UPRB. At the river mouth of the UPRB, the LUCC led to an increase in long-term mean discharge values of 4.2% and 1.1% in the annual and wet season and a decrease of about 2.2% in the dry period. This study provides a large-scale modeling and valuable information that could be used to improve planning and sustainable management of future water resources within the basin.
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| 9. |
- de Morais, Marcos Vinicius Bueno, et al.
(författare)
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Implementation of observed sky-view factor in a mesoscale model for sensitivity studies of the urban meteorology
- 2018
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Ingår i: Sustainability (Switzerland). - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 10:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The sky view factor (SVF) is an important radiometric parameter for assessing the canopy energy budget of urban areas. There are several methods to determine the SVF observationally. The most common is taking a photo with a digital camera equipped with a fish-eye lens and then converting ratio of sky area to canopy area into SVF. However, most urban canopy models use this variable as derived from idealized canopy geometry. To evaluate the effect of inputting observed SVFs in numerical models, we evaluated a mesoscale model's performance in reproducing surface wind and surface temperature when subjected to different ways of SVF prescription. The studied area was the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) in Brazil. Observed SVFs were obtained for 37 sites scattered all over the MASP. Three simulations, A, B, and C, with different SVF and aspect-ratio prescriptions, were performed to analyze the effect of SVF on the urban canopy parameterization: Simulation A (standard) used the original formulation of the Town Energy Budget (TEB) model, computing the SVFs from the aspect-ratios; Simulation B used the observed SVFs, but keeps aspect-ratios as original; and Simulation C used the aspect-ratios computed from observed SVFs. The results show that in general inputting observed SVFs improves the model capability of reproducing temperature at surface level. The comparison of model outputs with data of regular meteorological stations shows that the inclusion of observed values of SVFs enhances model performance, reducing the RMSE index by up to 3 °C. In this case, the model is able to better reproduce the expected effects in the wind field, and consequently the temperature advection, of the urban boundary layer to a large urban area. The result of Simulation C shows that the surface wind and temperature intensity for all urban types is higher than those of Simulation A, because of the lower values of the aspect ratio. The urban type with high density of tall buildings increase up to 1 m s-1 in the wind speed, and approximately 1 °C in temperature, showing the importance of a better representation of the urban structure and the SVF database improvement.
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| 10. |
- de Souza, Itamara Parente, et al.
(författare)
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Seasonal precipitation variability modes over South America associated to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and non-ENSO components during the 1951–2016 period
- 2021
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418 .- 1097-0088. ; 41:8, s. 4321-4338
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Anomalous seasonal patterns of precipitation variability over South America (SA) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and non-ENSO (residual) conditions were assessed during 1951–2016. Patterns were obtained from empirical orthogonal functions analysis of total and residual precipitation seasonal anomalies. In austral spring and summer, precipitation variability is dominated by a dipolar anomaly mode with a centre extending from northwestern to northeastern SA and another in central-eastern Brazil and part of southeastern SA (SESA) during spring, and a centre in northwestern SA and another extending from northeastern SA to central and eastern Brazil and central SESA, during summer. These modes are associated with ENSO to a greater extent during spring than summer. In summer, there is a strong association of the dipolar precipitation pattern with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the east coast of Brazil, which indicates local influence. In austral fall, SST anomalies in the tropical South Atlantic relate to precipitation anomalies in northeast SA, and those in the tropical north Atlantic (TNA) to precipitation anomalies in northwestern SA, through the intertropical convergence zone anomalous position modulated by SST anomalies. In this same condition, the ENSO acts only to intensify or weaken the dominant precipitation pattern, depending on its phase, mainly over SESA. In contrast, the second variability mode in fall is characterized by positive SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean and equatorial and southern Atlantic Ocean and negative in the TNA. The importance of ENSO and the Indian Ocean in the characterization of the SST dipole in the tropical Atlantic explains the main changes in precipitation patterns over northeastern Brazil not been discussed in previous studies.
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