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Sökning: WFRF:(Fujita Thais)

  • Resultat 1-6 av 6
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1.
  • de Morais, Marcos Vinícius Bueno, et al. (författare)
  • Evaluation of future climate change scenarios in urban heat island and its neighborhood using dynamical downscaling
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Journal of Urban and Environmental Engineering. - 1982-3932. ; 14:1, s. 110-118
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • According to IPCC reports, global climate change is likely to be accompanied by a greater frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves in urban areas. This is related to predicted and ongoing variation of atmospheric temperature and its association with the dynamical evolution of cities. Changes in the roughness pattern of the surface, wind intensity, soil available humidity and radiative properties compared to the natural surfaces characterize the formation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI). A dynamical downscaling of A2 and B1 SRES’s future scenarios from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were performed for Londrina, a medium-size city of Southern Brazil, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of these scenarios on the UHI formation and intensity based on different input data, and its role and influence in the rural area. For this, an evaluation of the model and a comparison with the scenarios were done to mitigate the current trends. The results show a tendency in the current situation in following the pessimistic A2 scenario. Also, a drier rural area for the sustainable projection (B1) is found which implicates in a higher temperature and wind patterns modification for both sites, urban and rural region. Both future projections have a direct influence on the UHI intensity and formation, yielding effects in the agriculture and affecting conditions on human comfort over the region.
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2.
  • Fujita, Thais, et al. (författare)
  • Simulating Discharge in a Non-Dammed River of Southeastern South America Using SWAT Model
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Water. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4441. ; 14:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Within a single region, it is possible to identify opposite changes in flow production. This proved to be the case for several basins in southeastern South America. It remains challenging to the causes this behavior and whether changes in streamflow will continue at current levels or decline in the coming decades. In this study, we used the Soil Water Assessment Tool to simulate monthly river discharge in the Ivaí River Basin, an unregulated medium-sized catchment and tributary of the Upper Paraná River Basin. After calibration, the simulated flow regime for the five streamflow stations based on the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NSE) rated four of the streamflow stations Very Good (NSE between 0.86 and 0.89) and only one in the Good index (0.70). The overall flow behavior was well represented, although an underestimation was identified in four monitoring stations. Through assessment of its functionality and limitations in terms of specific flow duration curves percentages, the calibrated model could provide (to managers) the reliability needed for a realistic intervention. The results of this study may assist managers and support public policies for the use of water resources at the Ivaí River basin.
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3.
  • Rafee, Sameh A.Abou, et al. (författare)
  • Large-scale hydrological modelling of the Upper Paraná River Basin
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Water. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4441. ; 11:5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB) has undergone many rapid land use changes in recent decades, due to accelerating population growth. Thus, the prediction of water resources has crucial importance in improving planning and sustainable management. This paper presents a large-scale hydrological modelling of the UPRB, using the Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model was calibrated and validated for 78 outlets, over a 32-year simulation period between 1984 and 2015. The results and the comparison between observed and simulated values showed that after the calibration process, most of the outlets performed to a satisfactory level or better in all objective functions analyzed with 86%, 92%, 76%, 88%, and 74% for Percent bias, Coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling-Gupta efficiency, and the Ratio of Standard deviation of observations to root mean square error, respectively. The model output provided in this work could be used in further simulations, such as the evaluation of the impacts of land use change or climate change on river flows of the Upper Paraná Basin.
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4.
  • Rafee, Sameh A.Abou, et al. (författare)
  • Spatial trends of extreme precipitation events in the Paraná river basin
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. - 1558-8424. ; 59:3, s. 443-454
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This work presents an analysis of the observed trends in extreme precipitation events in the Paraná River basin (PRB) from 1977 to 2016 (40 yr) based on daily records from 853 stations. The Mann–Kendall test and inverse-distance-weighted interpolation were applied to annual and seasonal precipitation and also for four extreme precipitation indices. The results show that the negative trends (significance at 95% confidence level) in annual and seasonal series are mainly located in the northern and northeastern parts of the basin. In contrast, except in the autumn season, positive trends were concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions of the basin, most notably for annual and summer precipitation. The spatial distributions of the indices of annual maximum 5-day precipitation and number of rainstorms indicate that significant positive trends are mostly located in the south-southeast part of the basin and that significant negative trends are mostly located in the north-northeast part. The index of the annual number of dry days shows that 88% of significant trends are positive and that most of these are located in the northern region of the PRB, which is a region with a high number of consecutive dry days (>90). The simple daily intensity index showed the highest number of stations (263) with mostly positive significant trends.
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5.
  • Rudke, Anderson Paulo, et al. (författare)
  • Land cover data of Upper Parana River Basin, South America, at high spatial resolution
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1569-8432. ; 83
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This study presents a new land cover map for the Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB-2015), with high spatial resolution (30 m), and a high number of calibration and validation sites. To the new map, 50 Landsat-8 scenes were classified with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm and their level of agreement was assessed using overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient. The generated map was compared by area and by pixel with six global products (MODIS, GlobCover, Globeland30, FROM-GLC, CCI-LC and, GLCNMO). The results of the new classification showed an overall accuracy ranging from 67% to 100%, depending on the sub-basin (80.0% for the entire UPRB). Kappa coefficient was observed ranging from 0.50 to 1.00 (average of 0.73 in the whole basin). Anthropic areas cover more than 70% of the entire UPRB in the new product, with Croplands covering 46.0%. The new mapped areas of croplands are consistent with local socio-economic statistics but don't agree with global products, especially FROM-GLC (14,9%), MODIS (33.8%), GlobCover (71.2%), and CCI (67.8%). In addition, all global products show generalized spatial disagreement, with some sub-basins showing areas of cropland varying by an order of magnitude, compared to UPRB-2015. In the case of Grassland, covering 25.6% of the UPRB, it was observed a strong underestimation by all global products. Even for the Globeland30 and MODIS, which show some significant fraction of pasture areas, there is a high level of disagreement in the spatial distribution. In terms of general agreement, the seven compared mappings (including the new map) agree in only 6.6% of the study area, predominantly areas of forest and agriculture. Finally, the new classification proposed in this study provides better inputs for regional studies, especially for those involving hydrological modeling as well as offers a more refined LU/LC data set for atmospheric numerical models.
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6.
  • Xavier, Ana Carolina Freitas, et al. (författare)
  • Stationary and non-stationary detection of extreme precipitation events and trends of average precipitation from 1980 to 2010 in the Paraná River basin, Brazil
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418 .- 1097-0088. ; 40:2, s. 1197-1212
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The main objective of this study was to investigate the trends on average and extreme events in time series of daily precipitation from 1980 to 2010 in the Paraná River basin, Brazil. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was applied to detect monotonic trend in the precipitation series. The occurrence of extreme values was analysed based on three generalized extreme values (GEV) models: Model 1 (stationary), Model 2 (non-stationary for location parameter), and Model 3 (non-stationary for location and scale parameters). The GEV parameters were estimated by the Generalized Maximum Likelihood method (GMLE) and for the non-stationary models, the parameters were estimated as linear functions of time. To choose the most suitable model, the maximum likelihood ratio test (D) was used. From the results observed at the monthly scale, it was possible to infer that the months with the highest probability of an extreme weather event occurrence are February (climates Aw and Cfa), July (Cfa and Cfb), and October (Aw, Cfa, and Cfb). Approximately 90% of the 1,112 stations presented no trend regarding the GEV parameters. The non-stationarity showed by other stations (Models 2 and 3) might be associated with several factors, such as the alteration of land use due to the north expansion of the agricultural border of the Paraná River basin.
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  • Resultat 1-6 av 6

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