| 1. |
- Bergström, Fanny, 1988-, et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian nowcasting with leading indicators applied to COVID-19 fatalities in Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: PloS Computational Biology. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-734X .- 1553-7358. ; 18:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The real-time analysis of infectious disease surveillance data is essential in obtaining situational awareness about the current dynamics of a major public health event such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This analysis of e.g., time-series of reported cases or fatalities is complicated by reporting delays that lead to under-reporting of the complete number of events for the most recent time points. This can lead to misconceptions by the interpreter, for instance the media or the public, as was the case with the time-series of reported fatalities during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden. Nowcasting methods provide real-time estimates of the complete number of events using the incomplete time-series of currently reported events and information about the reporting delays from the past. In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian nowcasting approach applied to COVID-19-related fatalities in Sweden. We incorporate additional information in the form of time-series of number of reported cases and ICU admissions as leading signals. We demonstrate with a retrospective evaluation that the inclusion of ICU admissions as a leading signal improved the nowcasting performance of case fatalities for COVID-19 in Sweden compared to existing methods.
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| 2. |
- Herold, Janina M., et al.
(författare)
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Genetic Risk Score Analysis Supports a Joint View of Two Classification Systems for Age-Related Macular Degeneration
- 2023
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Ingår i: Investigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science. - 0146-0404 .- 1552-5783. ; 64:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of combining the Clinical Classification (CC) and the Three Continent age-related macular degeneration (AMD) Consortium Severity Scale (3CACSS) for classification of AMD.Methods: In two independent cross-sectional datasets of our population-based AugUR study (Altersbezogene Untersuchungen zur Gesundheit der Universität Regensburg), we graded AMD via color fundus images applying two established classification systems (CC and 3CACSS). We calculated the genetic risk score (GRS) across 50 previously identified variants for late AMD, its association via logistic regression, and area under the curve (AUC) for each AMD stage.Results: We analyzed 2188 persons aged 70 to 95 years. When comparing the two classification systems, we found a distinct pattern: CC “age-related changes” and CC “early AMD” distinguished individuals with 3CACSS “no AMD”; 3CACSS “mild/moderate/severe early AMD” stages, and distinguished CC “intermediate AMD”. This suggested a 7-step scale combining the 2 systems: (i) “no AMD”, (ii) “age-related changes”, (iii) “very early AMD”, (i.e. CC “early”), (iv) “mild early AMD”, (v) “moderate early AMD”, (vi) “severe early AMD”, and (vii) “late AMD”. GRS association and diagnostic accuracy increased stepwise by increased AMD severity in the 7-step scale and by increased restriction of controls (e.g. for CC “no AMD without age-related changes”: AUC = 55.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 51.6, 58.6, AUC = 62.3%, 95% CI = 59.1, 65.6, AUC = 63.8%, 95% CI = 59.3, 68.3, AUC = 78.1%, 95% CI = 73.6, 82.5, AUC = 82.2%, 95% CI = 78.4, 86.0, and AUC = 79.2%, 95% CI = 75.4, 83.0). A stepwise increase was also observed by increased drusen size and area.Conclusions: The utility of a 7-step scale is supported by our clinical and GRS data. This harmonization and full data integration provides an immediate simplification over using either CC or 3CACSS and helps to sharpen the control group.
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| 3. |
- Wolffram, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences in Germany
- 2023
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Ingår i: PloS Computational Biology. - 1553-734X .- 1553-7358. ; 19:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Real-time surveillance is a crucial element in the response to infectious disease outbreaks. However, the interpretation of incidence data is often hampered by delays occurring at various stages of data gathering and reporting. As a result, recent values are biased downward, which obscures current trends. Statistical nowcasting techniques can be employed to correct these biases, allowing for accurate characterization of recent developments and thus enhancing situational awareness. In this paper, we present a preregistered real-time assessment of eight nowcasting approaches, applied by independent research teams to German 7-day hospitalization incidences during the COVID-19 pandemic. This indicator played an important role in the management of the outbreak in Germany and was linked to levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions via certain thresholds. Due to its definition, in which hospitalization counts are aggregated by the date of case report rather than admission, German hospitalization incidences are particularly affected by delays and can take several weeks or months to fully stabilize. For this study, all methods were applied from 22 November 2021 to 29 April 2022, with probabilistic nowcasts produced each day for the current and 28 preceding days. Nowcasts at the national, state, and age-group levels were collected in the form of quantiles in a public repository and displayed in a dashboard. Moreover, a mean and a median ensemble nowcast were generated. We find that overall, the compared methods were able to remove a large part of the biases introduced by delays. Most participating teams underestimated the importance of very long delays, though, resulting in nowcasts with a slight downward bias. The accompanying prediction intervals were also too narrow for almost all methods. Averaged over all nowcast horizons, the best performance was achieved by a model using case incidences as a covariate and taking into account longer delays than the other approaches. For the most recent days, which are often considered the most relevant in practice, a mean ensemble of the submitted nowcasts performed best. We conclude by providing some lessons learned on the definition of nowcasting targets and practical challenges.
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