| 1. |
- Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel, et al.
(författare)
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Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment
- 2018
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Ingår i: Agricultural Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-521X. ; 159, s. 260-274
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the "According to Our Current Knowledge" (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.
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| 2. |
- Rodríguez, A., et al.
(författare)
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Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations
- 2019
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Ingår i: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-1923 .- 1873-2240. ; 264, s. 351-362
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is expected to severely affect cropping systems and food production in many parts of the world unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.
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| 3. |
- Freud, Lindsay R., et al.
(författare)
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Prenatal vs postnatal diagnosis of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome: cardiac and noncardiac outcomes through 1 year of age
- 2024
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Ingår i: American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology. - 0002-9378 .- 1097-6868. ; 230:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The 22q11.2 deletion syndrome is the most common microdeletion syndrome and is frequently associated with congenital heart disease. Prenatal diagnosis of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome is increasingly offered. It is unknown whether there is a clinical benefit to prenatal detection as compared with postnatal diagnosis. Objective: This study aimed to determine differences in perinatal and infant outcomes between patients with prenatal and postnatal diagnosis of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome. Study Design: This was a retrospective cohort study across multiple international centers (30 sites, 4 continents) from 2006 to 2019. Participants were fetuses, neonates, or infants with a genetic diagnosis of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome by 1 year of age with or without congenital heart disease; those with prenatal diagnosis or suspicion (suggestive ultrasound findings and/or high-risk cell-free fetal DNA screen for 22q11.2 deletion syndrome with postnatal confirmation) were compared with those with postnatal diagnosis. Perinatal management, cardiac and noncardiac morbidity, and mortality by 1 year were assessed. Outcomes were adjusted for presence of critical congenital heart disease, gestational age at birth, and site. Results: A total of 625 fetuses, neonates, or infants with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (53.4% male) were included: 259 fetuses were prenatally diagnosed (156 [60.2%] were live-born) and 122 neonates were prenatally suspected with postnatal confirmation, whereas 244 infants were postnatally diagnosed. In the live-born cohort (n=522), 1-year mortality was 5.9%, which did not differ between groups but differed by the presence of critical congenital heart disease (hazard ratio, 4.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.56–11.18; P<.001) and gestational age at birth (hazard ratio, 0.78 per week; 95% confidence interval, 0.69–0.89; P<.001). Adjusting for critical congenital heart disease and gestational age at birth, the prenatal cohort was less likely to deliver at a local community hospital (5.1% vs 38.2%; odds ratio, 0.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.06–0.23; P<.001), experience neonatal cardiac decompensation (1.3% vs 5.0%; odds ratio, 0.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.03–0.49; P=.004), or have failure to thrive by 1 year (43.4% vs 50.3%; odds ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.36–0.91; P=.019). Conclusion: Prenatal detection of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome was associated with improved delivery management and less cardiac and noncardiac morbidity, but not mortality, compared with postnatal detection.
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| 4. |
- Kraemer, Benjamin M., et al.
(författare)
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Climate change drives widespread shifts in lake thermal habitat
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 11:6, s. 521-529
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lake surfaces are warming worldwide, raising concerns about lake organism responses to thermal habitat changes. Species may cope with temperature increases by shifting their seasonality or their depth to track suitable thermal habitats, but these responses may be constrained by ecological interactions, life histories or limiting resources. Here we use 32 million temperature measurements from 139 lakes to quantify thermal habitat change (percentage of non-overlap) and assess how this change is exacerbated by potential habitat constraints. Long-term temperature change resulted in an average 6.2% non-overlap between thermal habitats in baseline (1978-1995) and recent (1996-2013) time periods, with non-overlap increasing to 19.4% on average when habitats were restricted by season and depth. Tropical lakes exhibited substantially higher thermal non-overlap compared with lakes at other latitudes. Lakes with high thermal habitat change coincided with those having numerous endemic species, suggesting that conservation actions should consider thermal habitat change to preserve lake biodiversity. Using measurements from 139 global lakes, the authors demonstrate how long-term thermal habitat change in lakes is exacerbated by species' seasonal and depth-related constraints. They further reveal higher change in tropical lakes, and those with high biodiversity and endemism.
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| 5. |
- Morgell, A, et al.
(författare)
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Metabolic characterization of plasma and cyst fluid from cystic precursors to pancreatic cancer patients reveal metabolic signatures of bacterial infection
- 2020
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Ingår i: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. - : Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Pancreatic cancer is the seventh leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, with a 5-year survival rate as low as 9%. One factor complicating the management of pancreatic cancer is the lack of reliable tools for early diagnosis. While up to 50% of the adult population has been shown to develop precancerous pancreatic cysts, limited and insufficient approaches are currently available to determine whether a cyst is going to progress into pancreatic cancer. Recently, we used metabolomics approaches to identify candidate markers of disease progression in patients diagnosed with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) undergoing pancreatic resection. Here we enrolled an independent cohort to verify the candidate markers from our previous study with orthogonal quantitative methods in plasma and cyst fluid from serous cystic neoplasm and IPMN (either low- or high-grade dysplasia or pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma). We thus validated these markers with absolute quantitative methods through the auxilium of stable isotope-labelled internal standards in a new independent cohort. Finally, we identified novel markers of IPMN status and disease progression – including amino acids, carboxylic acids, conjugated bile acids, free and carnitine-conjugated fatty acids, purine oxidation products and TMAO. We show that the levels of these metabolites of potential bacterial origin correlated with the degree of bacterial enrichment in the cyst, as determined by 16S RNA. Overall, our findings are interesting per se, owing to the validation of previous markers and identification of novel small molecule signatures of IPMN and disease progression. In addition, our findings further fuel the provoking debate as to whether bacterial infections may represent an etiological contributor to the development and severity of the disease in pancreatic cancer, in like fashion to other cancers (e.g.,Helicobacter pyloriand gastric cancer).Key pointsWe identified and quantified novel markers of IPMN cyst status and pancreatic cancer disease progression – including amino acids, carboxylic acids, conjugated bile acids, free and carnitine-conjugated fatty acids, purine oxidation products and TMAO.We show that the levels of these metabolites of potential bacterial origin correlated with the degree of bacterial enrichment in the cyst, as determined by 16S RNA.
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| 6. |
- Pilla, Rachel M., et al.
(författare)
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Global data set of long-term summertime vertical temperature profiles in 153 lakes
- 2021
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Nature. - 2052-4463. ; 8:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors have led to long-term changes in the thermal structure, including surface temperatures, deepwater temperatures, and vertical thermal gradients, in many lakes around the world. Though many studies highlight warming of surface water temperatures in lakes worldwide, less is known about long-term trends in full vertical thermal structure and deepwater temperatures, which have been changing less consistently in both direction and magnitude. Here, we present a globally-expansive data set of summertime in-situ vertical temperature profiles from 153 lakes, with one time series beginning as early as 1894. We also compiled lake geographic, morphometric, and water quality variables that can influence vertical thermal structure through a variety of potential mechanisms in these lakes. These long-term time series of vertical temperature profiles and corresponding lake characteristics serve as valuable data to help understand changes and drivers of lake thermal structure in a time of rapid global and ecological change.
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| 7. |
- Doubek, Jonathan P., et al.
(författare)
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The extent and variability of storm-induced temperature changes in lakes measured with long-term and high-frequency data
- 2021
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Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 66:5, s. 1979-1992
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The intensity and frequency of storms are projected to increase in many regions of the world because of climate change. Storms can alter environmental conditions in many ecosystems. In lakes and reservoirs, storms can reduce epilimnetic temperatures from wind-induced mixing with colder hypolimnetic waters, direct precipitation to the lake's surface, and watershed runoff. We analyzed 18 long-term and high-frequency lake datasets from 11 countries to assess the magnitude of wind- vs. rainstorm-induced changes in epilimnetic temperature. We found small day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreases in response to strong wind and heavy rain during stratified conditions. Day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreased, on average, by 0.28 degrees C during the strongest windstorms (storm mean daily wind speed among lakes: 6.7 +/- 2.7 m s(-1), 1 SD) and by 0.15 degrees C after the heaviest rainstorms (storm mean daily rainfall: 21.3 +/- 9.0 mm). The largest decreases in epilimnetic temperature were observed >= 2 d after sustained strong wind or heavy rain (top 5(th) percentile of wind and rain events for each lake) in shallow and medium-depth lakes. The smallest decreases occurred in deep lakes. Epilimnetic temperature change from windstorms, but not rainstorms, was negatively correlated with maximum lake depth. However, even the largest storm-induced mean epilimnetic temperature decreases were typically <2 degrees C. Day-to-day temperature change, in the absence of storms, often exceeded storm-induced temperature changes. Because storm-induced temperature changes to lake surface waters were minimal, changes in other limnological variables (e.g., nutrient concentrations or light) from storms may have larger impacts on biological communities than temperature changes.
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| 8. |
- Fronzek, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change
- 2018
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Ingår i: Agricultural Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-521X. ; 159, s. 209-224
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses.The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern.The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description.Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index.Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Gaiser, RA, et al.
(författare)
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Enrichment of oral microbiota in early cystic precursors to invasive pancreatic cancer
- 2019
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Ingår i: Gut. - : BMJ. - 1468-3288 .- 0017-5749. ; 68:12, s. 2186-2194
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are pancreatic cysts that can progress to invasive pancreatic cancer. Associations between oncogenesis and oral microbiome alterations have been reported. This study aims to investigate a potential intracystic pancreatic microbiome in a pancreatic cystic neoplasm (PCN) surgery patient cohort.DesignPaired cyst fluid and plasma were collected at pancreatic surgery from patients with suspected PCN (n=105). Quantitative and qualitative assessment of bacterial DNA by qPCR, PacBio sequencing (n=35), and interleukin (IL)-1β quantification was performed. The data were correlated to diagnosis, lesion severity and clinical and laboratory profile, including proton-pump inhibitor (PPI) usage and history of invasive endoscopy procedures.ResultsIntracystic bacterial 16S DNA copy number and IL-1β protein quantity were significantly higher in IPMN with high-grade dysplasia and IPMN with cancer compared with non-IPMN PCNs. Despite high interpersonal variation of intracystic microbiota composition, bacterial network and linear discriminant analysis effect size analyses demonstrated co-occurrence and enrichment of oral bacterial taxa including Fusobacterium nucleatum and Granulicatella adiacens in cyst fluid from IPMN with high-grade dysplasia. The elevated intracystic bacterial DNA is associated with, but not limited to, prior exposure to invasive endoscopic procedures, and is independent from use of PPI and antibiotics.ConclusionsCollectively, these findings warrant further investigation into the role of oral bacteria in cystic precursors to pancreatic cancer and have added values on the aetiopathology as well as the management of pancreatic cysts.
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