| 1. |
- Bazilian, Morgan, et al.
(author)
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Energy access scenarios to 2030 for the power sector in sub-Saharan Africa
- 2012
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In: Utilities Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0957-1787 .- 1878-4356. ; 20:1, s. 1-16
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several 'high-level', transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required - one aspect of the many inputs required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access - even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.
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| 2. |
- Glynn, James, et al.
(author)
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Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System : National Perspectives
- 2015
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In: Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. - Cham : Encyclopedia of Global Archaeology/Springer Verlag. - 9783319165394 - 9783319165400 ; , s. 359-387
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Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a national level. The preceding chapter focuses on a global perspective. The modelling studies outlined here show that burden sharing rules and national revenue recycling schemes for carbon tax are critical for the long-term viability of economic growth and equitable engagement on combating climate change. Traditional computable general equilibrium models and energy systems models solved in isolation can misrepresent the long run carbon cost and underestimate the demand response caused by technological paradigm shifts in a decarbonised energy system. The approaches outlined within have guided the first evidence based decarbonisation legislation and continue to provide additional insights as increased sectoral disaggregation in hybrid modelling approaches is achieved
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| 3. |
- Glynn, James, et al.
(author)
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Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System : Global Perspectives
- 2015
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In: Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. - Cham : Encyclopedia of Global Archaeology/Springer Verlag. - 9783319165394 - 9783319165400 ; , s. 333-358
-
Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a global level. The next chapter of this book focuses on a national perspective. The range of economic impacts is regionally dependent upon the stage of economic development, the level of industrialisation, energy intensity of exports, and competition effects due to rates of relative decarbonisation. Developed nation’s decarbonisation targets are estimated to result in a manageable GDP loss in the region of 2 % by 2050. Energy intensive export driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel exporting nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5 % GDP per year by mid-century.
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| 4. |
- Panos, Evangelos, et al.
(author)
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Deep decarbonisation pathways of the energy system in times of unprecedented uncertainty in the energy sector
- 2023
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In: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 180:September
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Unprecedented investments in clean energy technology are required for a net-zero carbon energy system before temperatures breach the Paris Agreement goals. By performing a Monte-Carlo Analysis with the detailed ETSAP-TIAM Integrated Assessment Model and by generating 4000 scenarios of the world's energy system, climate and economy, we find that the uncertainty surrounding technology costs, resource potentials, climate sensitivity and the level of decoupling between energy demands and economic growth influence the efficiency of climate policies and accentuate investment risks in clean energy technologies. Contrary to other studies relying on exploring the uncertainty space via model intercomparison, we find that the CO2 emissions and CO2 prices vary convexly and nonlinearly with the discount rate and climate sensitivity over time. Accounting for this uncertainty is important for designing climate policies and carbon prices to accelerate the transition. In 70% of the scenarios, a 1.5 °C temperature overshoot was within this decade, calling for immediate policy action. Delaying this action by ten years may result in 2 °C mitigation costs being similar to those required to reach the 1.5 °C target if started today, with an immediate peak in emissions, a larger uncertainty in the medium-term horizon and a higher effort for net-zero emissions.
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| 5. |
- Rogan, Fionn, et al.
(author)
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LEAPs and Bounds-an Energy Demand and Constraint Optimised Model of the Irish Energy System
- 2014
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In: Energy Efficiency. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1570-646X .- 1570-6478. ; 7:3, s. 441-466
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper builds a model of energy demand and supply for Ireland with a focus on evaluating, and providing insights for, energy efficiency policies. The demand-side comprises sectoral sub-models, with a detailed bottom-up approach used for the transport and residential sectors and a top-down approach used for the industry and services sectors. The supply side uses the linear programming optimisation features of the Open Source Energy Modelling System applied to electricity generation to calculate the least-cost solution. This paper presents the first national level model developed within the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning software to combine detailed end-use analysis on the demand side with a cost-minimising optimisation approach for modelling the electricity generation sector. Through three scenarios over the period 2009-2020, the model examines the aggregate impact on energy demand of a selection of current and proposed energy efficiency policies. In 2020, energy demand in the energy efficiency scenario is 8.6 % lower than the reference scenario and 11.1 % lower in the energy efficiency + scenario.
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| 6. |
- Welsch, Manuel, et al.
(author)
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Incorporating flexibility requirements into long-term energy system models - A case study on high levels of renewable electricity penetration in Ireland
- 2014
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In: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0306-2619 .- 1872-9118. ; 135, s. 600-615
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Efforts to meet climate change mitigation and energy security targets spur investments in variable renewable energy sources. Their implications for the operation of power plants are frequently investigated drawing on unit commitment and dispatch models. However, the temporal granularity and operational detail these models consider is commonly omitted in the broader family of long-term energy system models. To compensate this short-coming, these two types of tools have sometimes been 'soft-linked' and harmonised for limited simulation years. This paper assesses an alternative approach. We examine an extended version of an open source energy system model (0SeMOSYS), which is able to capture operating reserve and related investment requirements within a single tool. The implications of these model extensions are quantified through comparison with an Irish case study. That case study examined the effects of linking a long-term energy system model (TIMES) with a unit commitment and dispatch model (PLEXOS). It analysed the year 2020 in detail, applying a yearly temporal resolution that is over 700 times higher than in OSeMOSYS. Without increasing temporal resolution (and computational burden) we show that results of the enhanced OSeMOSYS model converge to results of TIMES and PLEXOS: Investment mismatches decrease from 21.4% to 5.0%. The OSeMOSYS analysis was then extended to 2050 to assess the implications of short-term variability on future capacity investment decisions. When variability was ignored, power system investments in 2050 were found to be 143% lower. This might imply that energy policies derived from such long-term models - of which there are many - may underestimate the costs of introducing variable renewables and thus meeting climate change or energy security targets.
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| 7. |
- Welsch, Manuel, et al.
(author)
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Supporting security and adequacy in future energy systems : The need to enhance long-term energy system models to better treat issues related to variability
- 2015
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In: International Journal of Energy Research. - : Hindawi Limited. - 0363-907X .- 1099-114X. ; 39:3, s. 377-396
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- As the shares of variable renewable generation in power systems increase, so does the need for, inter alia, flexible balancing mechanisms. These mechanisms help ensure the reliable operation of the electricity system by compensating for fluctuations in supply or demand. However, a focus on short-term balancing is sometimes neglected when assessing future capacity expansions with long-term energy system models. Developing heuristics that can simulate short-term system issues is one way of augmenting the functionality of such models. To this end, we present an extended functionality to the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), which captures the impacts of short-term variability of supply and demand on system adequacy and security. Specifically, we modelled the system adequacy as the share of wind energy is increased. Further, we enable the modelling of operating reserve capacities required for balancing services. The dynamics introduced through these model enhancements are presented in an application case study. This application indicates that introducing short-term constraints in long-term energy models may considerably influence the dispatch of power plants, capacity investments, and, ultimately, the policy recommendations derived from such models.
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