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- Belzile, Léo R., et al.
(författare)
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Is There a Cap on Longevity? A Statistical Review
- 2022
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Ingår i: Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application. - : Annual Reviews. - 2326-8298 .- 2326-831X. ; 9, s. 21-45
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is sustained and widespread interest in understanding the limit, if there is any, to the human life span. Apart from its intrinsic and biological interest, changes in survival in old age have implications for the sustainability of social security systems. A central question is whether the endpoint of the underlying lifetime distribution is finite. Recent analyses of data on the oldest human lifetimes have led to competing claims about survival and to some controversy, due in part to incorrect statistical analysis. This article discusses the particularities of such data, outlines correct ways of handling them, and presents suitable models and methods for their analysis. We provide a critical assessment of some earlier work and illustrate the ideas through reanalysis of semisupercentenarian lifetime data. Our analysis suggests that remaining life length after age 109 is exponentially distributed and that any upper limit lies well beyond the highest lifetime yet reliably recorded. Lower limits to 95% confidence intervals for the human life span are about 130 years, and point estimates typically indicate no upper limit at all.
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| 2. |
- Oksuzyan, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Is Who you Ask Important? Concordance Between Survey and Registry Data on Medication Use Among Self- and Proxy-Respondents in the Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins and the Danish 1905-Cohort Study
- 2019
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Ingår i: The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1079-5006 .- 1758-535X. ; 74:5, s. 742-747
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: This study investigates the accuracy of the reporting of medication use by proxy-and self-respondents, and it compares the prognostic value of the number of medications from survey and registry data for predicting mortality across self-and proxy-respondents.Methods: The study is based on the linkage of the Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins and the Danish 1905-Cohort Study with the Danish National Prescription Registry. We investigated the concordance between survey and registry data, and the prognostic value of medication use when assessed using survey and registry data, to predict mortality for self-and proxy-respondents at intake surveys.Results: Among self-respondents, the agreement was moderate (kappa = 0.52-0.58) for most therapeutic groups, whereas among proxy-respondents, the agreement was low to moderate (kappa = 0.36-0.60). The magnitude of the relative differences was, generally, greater among proxies than among self-respondents. Each additional increase in the total number of medications was associated with 7%-8% mortality increase among self- and 4%-6% mortality increase among proxy-respondents in both the survey and registry data. The predictive value of the total number of medications estimated from either data source was lower among proxies (c-statistic = 0.56-0.58) than among self-respondents (c-statistic = 0.74).Conclusions: The concordance between survey and registry data regarding medication use and the predictive value of the number of medications for mortality were lower among proxy-than among self-respondents.
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