| 1. |
- Garcia-Carreras, Luis, et al.
(författare)
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The Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Simulation of Crop Processes
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. - 1558-8424 .- 1558-8432. ; 54:6, s. 1283-1296
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global climate and weather models are a key tool for the prediction of future crop productivity, but they all rely on parameterizations of atmospheric convection, which often produce significant biases in rainfall characteristics over the tropics. The authors evaluate the impact of these biases by driving the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) with regional-scale atmospheric simulations of one cropping season over West Africa at different resolutions, with and without a parameterization of convection, and compare these with a GLAM run driven by observations. The parameterization of convection produces too light and frequent rainfall throughout the domain, as compared with the short, localized, high-intensity events in the observations and in the convection-permitting runs. Persistent light rain increases surface evaporation, and much heavier rainfall is required to trigger planting. Planting is therefore delayed in the runs with parameterized convection and occurs at a seasonally cooler time, altering the environmental conditions experienced by the crops. Even at high resolutions, runs driven by parameterized convection underpredict the small-scale variability in yields produced by realistic rainfall patterns. Correcting the distribution of rainfall frequencies and intensities before use in crop models will improve the process-based representation of the crop life cycle, increasing confidence in the predictions of crop yield. The rainfall biases described here are a common feature of parameterizations of convection, and therefore the crop-model errors described are likely to occur when using any global weather or climate model, thus remaining hidden when using climate-model intercomparisons to evaluate uncertainty.
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| 2. |
- Garcia-Carreras, Luis, et al.
(författare)
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The Turbulent Structure and Diurnal Growth of the Saharan Atmospheric Boundary Layer
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. - 0022-4928 .- 1520-0469. ; 72:2, s. 693-713
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The turbulent structure and growth of the remote Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is described with in situ radiosonde and aircraft measurements and a large-eddy simulation model. A month of radiosonde data from June 2011 provides a mean profile of the midday Saharan ABL, which is characterized by a well-mixed convective boundary layer, capped by a small temperature inversion (<1K) and a deep, near-neutral residual layer. The boundary layer depth varies by up to 100% over horizontal distances of a few kilometers due to turbulent processes alone. The distinctive vertical structure also leads to unique boundary layer processes, such as detrainment of the warmest plumes across the weak temperature inversion, which slows down the warming and growth of the convective boundary layer. As the boundary layer grows, overshooting plumes can also entrain free-tropospheric air into the residual layer, forming a second entrainment zone that acts to maintain the inversion above the convective boundary layer, thus slowing down boundary layer growth further. A single-column model is unable to accurately reproduce the evolution of the Saharan boundary layer, highlighting the difficulty of representing such processes in large-scale models. These boundary layer processes are special to the Sahara, and possibly hot, dry, desert environments in general, and have implications for the large-scale structure of the Saharan heat low. The growth of the boundary layer influences the vertical redistribution of moisture and dust, and the spatial coverage and duration of clouds, with large-scale dynamical and radiative implications.
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| 3. |
- Rosenberg, Philip D., et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying particle size and turbulent scale dependence of dust flux in the Sahara using aircraft measurements
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. - 2169-897X .- 2169-8996. ; 119:12, s. 7577-7598
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The first size-resolved airborne measurements of dust fluxes and the first dust flux measurements from the central Sahara are presented and compared with a parameterization by Kok (2011a). High-frequency measurements of dust size distribution were obtained from 0.16 to 300 mu m diameter, and eddy covariance fluxes were derived. This is more than an order of magnitude larger size range than previous flux estimates. Links to surface emission are provided by analysis of particle drift velocities. Number flux is described by a -2 power law between 1 and 144 mu m diameter, significantly larger than the 12 mu m upper limit suggested by Kok (2011a). For small particles, the deviation from a power law varies with terrain type and the large size cutoff is correlated with atmospheric vertical turbulent kinetic energy, suggesting control by vertical transport rather than emission processes. The measured mass flux mode is in the range 30-100 mu m. The turbulent scales important for dust flux are from 0.1 km to 1-10 km. The upper scale increases during the morning as boundary layer depth and eddy size increase. All locations where large dust fluxes were measured had large topographical variations. These features are often linked with highly erodible surface features, such as wadis or dunes. We also hypothesize that upslope flow and flow separation over such features enhance the dust flux by transporting large particles out of the saltation layer. The tendency to locate surface flux measurements in open, flat terrain means these favored dust sources have been neglected in previous studies.
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| 4. |
- Spracklen, D. V., et al.
(författare)
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The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall
- 2015
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 42:21, s. 9546-9552
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We completed a meta-analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (+/- 1 sigma) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was -12 +/- 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 +/- 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business-as-usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 +/- 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.
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| 5. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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