| 1. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Bauducco, Serena, 1988-, et al.
(författare)
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Adolescents’ trajectories of depression and anxiety symptoms prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic and their association with healthy sleep patterns
- 2024
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2045-2322. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has seen a rise in anxiety and depression among adolescents. This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal associations between sleep and mental health among a large sample of Australian adolescents and examine whether healthy sleep patterns were protective of mental health in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used three waves of longitudinal control group data from the Health4Life cluster-randomized trial (N= 2781, baseline Mage= 12.6, SD= 0.51; 47% boys and 1.4% ‘prefer not to say’). Latent class growth analyses across the 2 years period identifed four trajectories of depressive symptoms: low-stable (64.3%), average-increasing (19.2%), high-decreasing (7.1%), moderate-increasing (9.4%), and three anxiety symptom trajectories: lowstable (74.8%), average-increasing (11.6%), high-decreasing (13.6%). We compared the trajectories on sociodemographic and sleep characteristics. Adolescents in low-risk trajectories were more likely to be boys and to report shorter sleep latency and wake after sleep onset, longer sleep duration, less sleepiness, and earlier chronotype. Where mental health improved or worsened, sleep patterns changed in the same direction. The subgroups analyses uncovered two important fndings: (1) the majority of adolescents in the sample maintained good mental health and sleep habits (low-stabletrajectories), (2) adolescents with worsening mental health also reported worsening sleep patterns and vice versa in the improving mental health trajectories. These distinct patterns of sleep and mental health would not be seen using mean-centred statistical approaches.
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| 3. |
- Bota, András, et al.
(författare)
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A Generalized Framework for the Estimation of Edge Infection Probabilities
- 2023
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Ingår i: Algorithms. - : MDPI. - 1999-4893. ; 16:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Modeling the spread of infections in networks is a well-studied and important field of research. Most infection and diffusion models require a real value or probability at the edges of the network as an input, but this is rarely available in real-life applications. The Generalized Inverse Infection Model (GIIM) has previously been used in real-world applications to solve this problem. However, these applications were limited to the specifics of the corresponding case studies, and the theoretical properties, as well as the wider applicability of the model, are yet to be investigated. Here, we show that the general model works with the most widely used infection models and is able to handle an arbitrary number of observations on such processes. We evaluate the accuracy and speed of the GIIM on a large variety of realistic infection scenarios.
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| 4. |
- Bota, András, et al.
(författare)
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Socioeconomic and environmental patterns behind H1N1 spreading in Sweden
- 2021
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Nature. - 2045-2322. ; 11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Identifying the critical factors related to influenza spreading is crucial in predicting and mitigating epidemics. Specifically, uncovering the relationship between epidemic onset and various risk indicators such as socioeconomic, mobility and climate factors can reveal locations and travel patterns that play critical roles in furthering an outbreak. We study the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza outbreaks in Sweden’s municipalities between 2009 and 2015 and use the Generalized Inverse Infection Method (GIIM) to assess the most significant contributing risk factors. GIIM represents an epidemic spreading process on a network: nodes correspond to geographical objects, links indicate travel routes, and transmission probabilities assigned to the links guide the infection process. Our results reinforce existing observations that the influenza outbreaks considered in this study were driven by the country’s largest population centers, while meteorological factors also contributed significantly. Travel and other socioeconomic indicators have a negligible effect. We also demonstrate that by training our model on the 2009 outbreak, we can predict the epidemic onsets in the following five seasons with high accuracy.
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| 5. |
- Hajdu, László, et al.
(författare)
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Discovering the Hidden Community Structure of Public Transportation Networks
- 2020
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Ingår i: Networks and Spatial Economics. - : Springer. - 1566-113X .- 1572-9427. ; 20:1, s. 209-231
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Advances in public transit modeling and smart card technologies can reveal detailed contact patterns of passengers. A natural way to represent such contact patterns is in the form of networks. In this paper we utilize known contact patterns from a public transit assignment model in a major metropolitan city, and propose the development of two novel network structures, each of which elucidate certain aspects of passenger travel behavior. We first propose the development of a transfer network, which can reveal passenger groups that travel together on a given day. Second, we propose the development of a community network, which is derived from the transfer network, and captures the similarity of travel patterns among passengers. We then explore the application of each of these network structures to identify the most frequently used travel paths, i.e., routes and transfers, in the public transit system, and model epidemic spreading risk among passengers of a public transit network, respectively. In the latter our conclusions reinforce previous observations, that routes crossing or connecting to the city center in the morning and afternoon peak hours are the most "dangerous" during an outbreak.
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| 6. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 7. |
- McCaffery, Jeanne M., et al.
(författare)
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Genetic Predictors of Change in Waist Circumference and Waist-to-Hip Ratio With Lifestyle Intervention : The Trans-NIH Consortium for Genetics of Weight Loss Response to Lifestyle Intervention
- 2022
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Ingår i: Diabetes. - : American Diabetes Association. - 1939-327X .- 0012-1797. ; 71:4, s. 669-676
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) adjusted for BMI (WCadjBMI and WHRadjBMI), but it remains unclear whether these SNPs relate to change in WCadjBMI or WHRadjBMI with lifestyle intervention for weight loss. We hypothesized that polygenic scores (PS) comprised of 59 SNPs previously associated with central adiposity would predict less of a reduction in WCadjBMI or WHRadjBMI at 8-10 weeks in two lifestyle intervention trials, NUGENOB and DiOGenes, and at 1 year in five lifestyle intervention trials, Look AHEAD, Diabetes Prevention Program, Diabetes Prevention Study, DIETFITS, and PREDIMED-Plus. One-SD higher PS related to a smaller 1-year change in WCadjBMI in the lifestyle intervention arms at year 1 and thus predicted poorer response (β = 0.007; SE = 0.003; P = 0.03) among White participants overall and in White men (β = 0.01; SE = 0.004; P = 0.01). At average weight loss, this amounted to 0.20-0.28 cm per SD. No significant findings emerged in White women or African American men for the 8-10-week outcomes or for WHRadjBMI. Findings were heterogeneous in African American women. These results indicate that polygenic risk estimated from these 59 SNPs relates to change in WCadjBMI with lifestyle intervention, but the effects are small and not of sufficient magnitude to be clinically significant.
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