| 1. |
- Garedew, Efrem, et al.
(författare)
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A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
- 2012
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Ingår i: Environmental Management. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0364-152X .- 1432-1009. ; 49, s. 151-162
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households' income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.
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| 2. |
- Garedew, Efrem
(författare)
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Land-use and land-cover dynamics and rural livelihood perspectives, in the semi-arid areas of Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
- 2010
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Global environmental changes in climate, land-use and bio-diversity are increasingly on top of scientific and political agenda. The impacts of climate change are manifested on all dimensions of food security: availability, accessibility, utilization and stability. This study presents land-use and land-cover (LULC) dynamics, rural livelihoods, and a dynamic simulation model of a socio-economical and environmental system in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Using different methods and approaches (remote sensing and participatory field point sampling, household survey, PRA and use of secondary data) the analyses revealed rapid LULC change over the past three decades. The area is characterized by high rate of conversion from woodland and wooded-grassland to farmland. For decades, subsistence agriculture has been the most important livelihood strategy but low level of its income does not meet basic everyday household expenditure. The importance of livelihood diversification has grown in response to population pressure that led to a decline in farm size and agricultural shocks due to biophysical factor limitations. Food insecurity is persistent and widespread. Using STELLA software, the dynamic model simulated an extensive land-use change, largely driven by the decisions of the people and population growth. It is characterized by rapid population growth, declining household farm size, declining household income, deterioration of the remnant forest and worsening land degradation if the situation remains unchanged. The simulated strategies, such as forest increase, and the projected micro-finance, better family planning and better education, are likely to improve forest cover and area, decrease land degradation, raising household income and help to slowing down population growth. The following conclusions can be drawn from the study: 1) monitoring LULC dynamics using a combination of remote sensing and participatory field point sampling is a valuable approach for land-use inventory; 2) the dramatic trends in LULC were associated with rapid population growth, recurrent droughts, rainfall variability and declining agricultural productivity; 3) food security is vulnerable to climatic change; 4) Currently, opportunities for additional income generating activities are limited. External interventions are important to improve farmers’ livelihoods and to heal the natural environment.
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| 3. |
- Garedew, Efrem, et al.
(författare)
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Land-Use and Land-Cover Dynamics in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
- 2009
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Ingår i: Environmental Management. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0364-152X .- 1432-1009. ; 44, s. 683-694
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding the complexity of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes and their driving forces and impacts on human and environmental security is important for the planning of natural resource management and associated decision making. This study combines and compares participatory field point sampling (pfps) and remote sensing to explore local LULC dynamics. The study was conducted in two peasant associations located in the central Ethiopian Rift Valley, which is a dry-land mixed farming area exposed to rapid deforestation. From 1973-2006, the area of cropland doubled at the expense of woodland and wooded-grassland in both of the study sites. Major deforestation and forest degradation took place from 1973-1986; woodland cover declined from 40% to 9% in one of the study sites, while the other lost all of its original 54% woodland cover. Our study concludes that assessing LULC dynamics using a combination of remote sensing and pfps is a valuable approach. The two methods revealed similar LULC trends, while the pfps provided additional details on how farmers view the changes. This study documents dramatic trends in LULC over time, associated with rapid population growth, recurrent drought, rainfall variability and declining crop productivity. The alarming nature of these trends is reflected in a decrease in the livelihood security of local communities and in environmental degradation. Given these dry-land conditions, there are few opportunities to improve livelihoods and environmental security without external support. If negative changes are to be halted, action must be taken, including building asset bases, instituting family planning services, and creating opportunities outside these marginal environments.
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| 4. |
- Kassa, Habtemariam, et al.
(författare)
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Building future scenarios and uncovering persisting challenges of participatory forest management in Chilimo Forest, Central Ethiopia
- 2009
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 90:2, s. 1004-1013
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We examined the changes in forest status and people's livelihoods through building future scenarios for Chilimo Forest in Central Ethiopia where participatory forest management (PFM) is being implemented. Participatory methods were employed to collect data, and a dynamic modeling technique was applied to explore trends over time. By integrating the more quantitative model outputs with qualitative insights, information on forests and livelihoods was summarized and returned to users, both to inform them and get feedback. A scenario of open access without PFM provides higher income benefits in the short term but not over the longer term, as compared to a scenario with PFM. Follow up meetings were organized with national decision makers to explore the possibility of new provisions in the national forest proclamation related to joint community-state ownership of forests. Project implementers must constantly work towards improving short term incentives from PFM, as these may be insufficient to garner Support for PFM. Other necessary elements for PFM to succeed include: ensuring active participation of the communities in the process: and, clarifying and harmonizing the rules and regulations at different levels.
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